The Monday Report – 28 April 2025

This story features ST. BARBARA LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SBM

Better than feared earnings for Google boosted US markets for an ongoing rally to end the week last Friday. ASX200 futures are sitting on the fence, pointing to a flat start for the week.

World Overnight
SPI Overnight	8078.00	+ 2.00	0.02%
S&P ASX 200	7968.20	+ 47.70	0.60%
S&P500	5525.21	+ 40.44	0.74%
Nasdaq Comp	17382.94	+ 216.90	1.26%
DJIA	40113.50	+ 20.10	0.05%
S&P500 VIX	24.84	– 1.63	– 6.16%
US 10-year yield	4.27	– 0.04	– 0.91%
USD Index	99.25	– 0.45	– 0.45%
FTSE100	8415.25	+ 7.81	0.09%
DAX30	22242.45	+ 177.94	0.81%

Good Morning,

Markets rallied on a back down in tariff talk last week, this week Australia’s first quarter CPI print on Wednesday will be a key event for the ASX. US markets will be focused on jobs data, Big Tech earnings and tariff negotiations.

What happened last week, Extract from Tony Sycamore, IG

US equities closed higher on Friday, marking the fourth straight session of gains as investor concerns eased regarding President Trump’s tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s independence. 

A more dovish stance from the Fed also supported the rally. For the week, the Nasdaq surged 6.43%, the Dow increased by 971 points or 2.5%, and the S&P 500 rose 4.59%. 

Despite its gains, the S&P500 remains -10% below its February highs.

Starting with tariff news, President Trump showed further signs of softening his position, indicating a potential reduction in tariffs on China from 145% to 50-65%. 

He also mentioned that tariff negotiations had begun with China. Although China disputed the claim, it quietly reduced some tariffs, including a 125% levy on US semiconductors. 

Additionally, the White House reported progress on potential trade deals with Japan, Korea, and India, which could act as models for others. 

On the economic front, the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer survey confirmed that US Consumer Sentiment fell for the fourth consecutive month in April due to concerns about tariffs. 

The final reading of 52.2 was slightly above the preliminary figure of 50.8 from two weeks ago but significantly lower than the 57.0 reading in March. While the hard data continues to show strength, the soft survey data continues to fall, and whether this leads to a recession will depend on how much further the White House scales back its tariffs. 

Meanwhile, comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested that the US central bank might consider lowering interest rates if the economy weakens significantly. 

“I’m not going to overreact to any increase in inflation that I think is attributable to the tariffs, but if I see a significant drop in the labour market, then the employment side of the mandate, I think, is important that we step in.” 

These remarks came a week after Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded hesitant to cut rates.

Looking ahead, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta are set to report earnings. 

This week also sees the release of the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Core PCE Price Index, and the April Non-Farm Payrolls report. 

The US interest rate market is pricing in a cumulative -85bps of rate cuts between now and year-end, with the first cut expected in July. 

Update on rest of the world: Extract from NAB Markets Today Research

Retail sales data from the UK and Canada both came in better than expected on core measures (ex-auto fuel, ex-auto respectively), both up 0.5%.

Consumer spending is now seen making a hefty positive contribution to Q1 UK GDP (up over 7% at an annualised rate in Q1).

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speaking to CNBC from Washington Friday said the UK economy was not even close to recession, citing the most recent GDP data, though did acknowledge recent weakening in PMIs related to business uncertainty about the world in which firms operates, and also noted waning UK consumer confidence evident in relatively huge savings rates.

Not that there was any evidence of that in Friday’s data and where we note wages growth continues to far outstrip inflation.

Canada’s data comes in front of Monday’s general election where the centre left Liberal party headed by Mark Carney hold a narrow (43.2%/38%) poll lead over the conservatives, representing one of the biggest flips (globally) in polling fortunes since the start of the year, when the conservatives were 44.2% to the Liberals 20.1%,  just before Trump launched his trade tariff broadside against Canada and threatened to make it the fifty-first state of the USA .

As for the ECB, arch-hawk Robert Holzmann reckons US tariffs will weigh on Euro inflation rather than create new inflation and said he was completely open on next ECB rate decisions (plural). 

Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus, speaking Saturday in Washington, said “With data at hand, I can’t exclude two more cuts to come this year. But in order to go further, we’d need to see more negative surprises.”

Meanwhile ECB GC member Boris Vujcic said the current configuration of US tariffs is not the worst scenario for Europe, noting fund flows into the region, lower energy prices and lower bond yields. Europe can still trade with both the US and China, he noted, even if the US and China tariffs on each other are prohibitive (and which he still flagged as a major concern).

Highlights from commodity markets: Extract from RBC Capital Markets

-Gold decreased -0.3% to US$3,318/oz. Physical gold ETFs recorded outflows of 178koz, the first weekly outflow in over 3 months (cumulative inflows total 6.5moz year-to-date). 

-Silver increased by 1.7% to US$33.10/oz and physical silver ETFs recorded outflows of -5moz. 

-The Commodity Futures Trading Commission net long gold positions decreased -21k to 195k and net long silver positions increased -1.2k to 42k contracts.

-Gold equities decreased by -4.1% while gold equity ETFs recorded considerable outflows of US$642m year-to-date outflows continue to achieve new records, now totaling US$3.8b in 2025. 

-Larger weekly equity price changes for companies under coverage relative to the index include NovaGold, up 49.0%, Hochschild mining, down-13.5%, St Barbara ((SBM)) up 11.5%, IAMGOLD, down -10.2%. 

-Short position data was reported in the US and Canada this week, with a notable increase positions in Mcewen Mining, SSR Mining, and a decline in positions in Eldorado Gold and Equinox Gold.

-Copper prices increased by 2.0% to US$4.25lb, WTI decreased by -2.6% to US$63.02/bbl, and Bitcoin prices increased by 12.4% to US$95K.

Ed Yardeni: Death Coss Versus Zweig Breadth Trust

“Only a few days ago, some stock-market-chart watchers warned that Trump’s Tariff Turmoil (TTT) set up a bearish Death Cross formation in the S&P500 and Nasdaq100. That occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. The formation historically has signaled declines ahead, but not all Death Crosses have preceded major downturns.

Now some market watchers are seeing a bullish Zweig Breadth Thrust, a technical analysis tool developed by Martin Zweig. It measures market breadth by analyzing the percentage of advancing stocks relative to the total number of stocks (advancing and declining) over a 10-day period. 

A ‘thrust’ occurs when this indicator rises rapidly from below 40% to above 61.5% within 10 days, suggesting a potential market rally. A similar version of this concept is the percent of S&P500 companies with positive year-on-year percent changes. It’s shown lots of thrust since April 8, i.e., the day before Liberation Day was postponed for 90 days by President Donald Trump.

Since late last year, we’ve been expecting a “choppy” correction during the first half of this year as investors assessed the outlook for Trump 2.0. That’s what we are seeing in the charts.

Admittedly, the market has been choppier in response to TTT than we expected, and we chopped our year-end target for the S&P 500 from 7000 to 6000 back in March. Now our year-end targets are 7000 in 2026, 8000 in 2027, 9000 in 2028, and (still) 10,000 in 2029.”

Corporate news in Australia

– Brookfield starts roadshow to sell $3bn La Trobe Financial

– Keppel Infrastructure reports strong performance for Ixom, with growth in chemicals and bitumen segments.

– Nanosonics (NAN)) CEO warns that U.S. tariff plans under the Trump administration could push Australian medical start-ups to relocate to the U.S., urging the Australian government to offer support to keep development onshore.

On the calendar today:

-US April Dallas Fed manu

-AIC MINES LIMITED ((A1M)) Qtr Report

-AERIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((AIS)) Qtr Report

-BRAMBLES LIMITED ((BXB)) Qtr Report

-GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED ((GOR)) Qtr Report

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz)	3298.40	– 7.99	– 0.24%
Silver (oz)	33.01	– 0.59	– 1.76%
Copper (lb)	4.90	+ 0.06	1.23%
Aluminium (lb)	1.11	– 0.00	– 0.08%
Nickel (lb)	7.05	– 0.01	– 0.13%
Zinc (lb)	1.20	+ 0.00	0.23%
West Texas Crude	63.02	+ 0.73	1.17%
Brent Crude	65.80	– 0.32	– 0.48%
Iron Ore (t)	99.98	– 0.32	– 0.32%

The Australian share market over the past thirty days

Index	24 Apr 2025	Week To Date	Month To Date (Apr)	Quarter To Date (Apr-Jun)	Year To Date (2025)
S&P ASX 200 (ex-div)	7968.20	1.91%	1.59%	1.59%	-2.34%

BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
ALL	Aristocrat Leisure	Upgrade to Buy from Neutral	UBS
AMP	AMP	Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral	Macquarie
MAD	Mader Group	Upgrade to Buy from Hold	Bell Potter

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

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