ST. BARBARA LIMITED (SBM)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

11/03/2025

-1

No Rating

-

Macquarie explains St. Barbara has downgraded its FY25 production guidance by -14%, while all-in-sustaining-cost guidance has increased by 19%, which the broker states was not "unexpected."

The production downgrade at Simberi reflects challenges in achieving grades in the current half-year at two locations.

Revised guidance stands at 55-60koz versus 65-70koz previously, with all-in-sustaining costs of $3,900-$4,000 against the former guidance of $3,200-$3,600, the analyst details.

Macquarie raises its cost assumptions by 6%, lowering the forecast FY25 EPS by -19%.

The broker is currently on research restriction.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -3.80 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -3.30 cents.

13/03/2025

1

Buy

$0.85

269.57%

Petra Capital notes St. Barbara downgraded the FY25 production forecast and increased the cost estimate citing delays in accessing planned higher-grade ore.

The new guidance for production is -13-15% lower and cost is 17-22% higher than the previous guidance, leading the broker to update its estimates.

Target price cut to 85c from 90c (which was an upgrade on March 7 from 64c).

The previous upgrade was the result of the broker raising its forecast for the gold price by 11% to US$2,580/oz for 2025-2029, and by 15% to US$2,300 post-2029.

This was on expectations of continued demand for gold for risk diversification and as a currency alternative to the US dollar. St. Barbara is among the broker's preferred gold producer stocks. Buy rating stays.

FORECAST
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -2.30 cents.
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.20 cents.