ST. BARBARA LIMITED (SBM)
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14/10/2025

3

Hold

$0.58

12.62%

Ord Minnett marked-to-market September quarter commodity prices and revised forecasts, with gold up, base metals marginally higher and mixed moves elsewhere.

2026 gold price estimate went up by 5%, driving a lift in target price for key gold names.

In case of base metals, the broker made modest target price increases, particularly for copper/gold exposed names. Tin prices peaked on supply delays but are projected to ease later.

Met coal remains soft but futures imply recovery. For thermal coal, the broker sees limited upside from the current US$105/t. Forecasts for gas are unchanged.

The broker expects St. Barbara to report 16koz production in the September quarter as production recovers from the adverse weather events at Simberi.

EBITDA forecast for FY26 lifted by 12% and by 4% for FY27.

Hold maintained for St. Barbara. Target rises to 58c from 50c.

FORECAST
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 10.00 cents.
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY27 EPS of 21.00 cents.

10/10/2025

1

Buy

$1.18

129.13%

Petra Capital raises its average gold price forecast across 2025-29 by 14% to US$3,363/oz and its long-term gold price assumption from 2030 by 25% to US$3,000/oz.

These revisions underpin significant upgrades to target prices for stocks across the broker's coverage of the ASX Gold sector.

Petra Capital recommends maintaining an Overweight exposure to the sector. Preferred producers include Vault Minerals, Black Cat Syndicate, Murchison Gold, St Barbara, and Brightstar Resources.

In the broker's view, Horizon Minerals, Rox Resources and Medallion Metals are stand outs among the developers. For early-stage opportunities, Aurum Resources, Astral Resources, Saturn Metals, and Kairos Minerals are highlighted.

Petra Capital recently allowed for the above forecast changes in the case of St. Barbara, raising its target by 74% to $1.18. Buy rating retained.

FORECAST
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.40 cents.
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.