Weekly Reports | Apr 29 2025
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN
Although not directly correlated, a positive tone on tariffs and confirmation of an U308 exemption, boosted activity, and the weekly spot price.
-Buyers return to the U308 spot market
-Energy diversity and nuclear as part of the clean energy mix
-Paladin Energy turns a corner
By Danielle Ecuyer
Markets more upbeat post Easter break
Markets moved to a more risk-on tone and rallied over last week, as President Trump started the walk-back process on tariffs with messaging from Treasury Secretary Bessent and the White House signalling tariff deals are in the making.
Like equities, bonds and other commodities, the U3O8 market responded positively to the removal of a level of uncertainty and attempts to start a de-escalation process.
Equally, markets have moved on from the holiday Easter period and assurance from the US Administration uranium is on the exempt list for tariffs boosted general sentiment and confidence.
Buyers moved back into the spot and term markets last week, as utilities started indicating new demand after an extended hiatus, according to industry consultants at TradeTech.
The TradeTech weekly spot price indicator advanced US$1.50 to US$66.5/lb with six transactions of over 550klbs U3O8 equivalent traded.
TradeTech’s Mid-term U3O8 price indicator came in at US$70/lb and the Long-term price indicator at US$80/lb.
In the term U3O8 market, utilities started issuing formal requests for proposals or approaching sellers more discreetly.
Macro news in the energy and uranium sector
In corporate news, the US Department of Energy announced a third loan disbursement to Holtec International, supporting the restart of the shuttered Palisades Nuclear Power Plant in Michigan, which is due to recommence in October.
In London, the UK co-hosted The Summit on the Future of Energy with the International Energy Agency on April 24-25, with over sixty countries in attendance.
The summit reinforced a global consensus on the clean energy transition. The UK and EU stressed the significance of clean energy, while the US representative expressed concerns on the over-reliance on renewables and dependence on Chinese-supplied critical minerals.
The UK and France both advocated for nuclear power as part of a renewable-centric energy mix.
The IEA’s Fatih Birol stated concerns around the continuing vulnerabilities and risks to global energy supplies from geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather, and cyber threats, calling for increased diversification and international cooperation.
Company news in the week that was
Paladin Energy ((PDN)) claimed stock of the week status, with the company announcing much better than expected March quarter results, which saw the share price rally almost 25% on the day, albeit it had fallen -12.5% the day before the announcement.
No doubt the rally in part reflected some short covering in the stock.
Responses from analysts proved very upbeat about the company’s quarterly update, which saw processed tonnes rise 20% on the previous quarter with a 4% improvement in grade.
Bell Potter highlighted production of 745klbs of U3O8 compared to the forecast of 570klbs on 0.9mt material versus the broker’s estimate of 0.7mt, processed at an average grade of 419ppm against 404ppm expected.
UBS pointed to higher sales at 872klbs with an average realised price of US$69.90/lb.
The progression of the mine restart was ahead of UBS analyst’s expectations, although there is ongoing caution on the ramp-up overall.
Morgan Stanley noted sales included twelve offtake contracts with 22.3mlbs contracted out to 2030. Integration of the Fission Team is also progressing well, and management has engaged a consultant to review the historical metallurgical test work at Mt Isa to further assess future processing options.
Paladin will issue an FY26 outlook statement in August with no additional FY25 guidance offered at the quarterly. As at 17 April, the short interest in Paladin shares stood at 16.93%.
FNArena daily monitored brokers have a consensus target price of $8.407 with seven Buy or Buy-equivalent ratings on the stock.
Deep Yellow’s ((DYL)) March quarter update included much of the pre-announced information, including the deferral of the final investment decision for the Tumas project.
Over the period, Canaccord Genuity noted the company spent -$13.3m on Tumas development and -$2.3m on the exploration and evaluation at Mulga Rock and Alligator River.
Management decided to adopt a staged development approach to Tumas, with capex up 15% to -US$474m due to inflation. The construction timeline has been extended to 24 months with a less aggressive ramp-up at 15 months. Canaccord assumes first production for Tumas in early 2028.
“The key element to delivering a final investment decision was always going to be the prevailing uranium market conditions… Deep Yellow will continue to move ahead with early works infrastructure development and detailed engineering, however full-scale project development will be delayed allowing for what the board believes will be the inevitable improvement in global uranium prices…”
Regarding Mulga Rock, the analyst states this is the only uranium development that could be reasonably classified as possessing medium-term prospects in Western Australia and represents a “scarce developable resource” with scale of 104.8mlbs.
Speculative Buy rating retained with an unchanged target price of $1.61. The short interest at 17 April came in at 12.87%.
BHP Group ((BHP)), which reported its third quarter update, revealed U3O8 production at the Olympic Dam mine in South Australia of 783t or 1.7mlbs of U3O8 compared to 1.9mlbs a year earlier. Fiscal year-to-date production stands at 4.8mlbs, a decline of -18% compared to the period a year previously.
March quarter sales were 1.6mlbs and 4.5mlbs for the three quarters to the end of the period.
FNArena’s consensus target price stands at $42.867 with five Buy and Buy-equivalent ratings and one Hold.
For more reading on uranium markets and related stocks:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/22/uranium-week-stock-bulls-dig-in/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/15/uranium-week-uncertainty-delays-tumas-project/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/08/uranium-week-sprott-physical-uranium-trust-speculations/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/01/uranium-week-u3o8-renaissance-meets-tariffs/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 25/04/2025 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.10 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 25/04/2025 | 0.1200 |  14.29% |
$0.19 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 25/04/2025 | 0.0300 | 7.69% |
$0.07 | $0.02 | $0.100 | 233.3% |
|
| AKN | 25/04/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 25/04/2025 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.17 | $0.05 | |||
| BKY | 25/04/2025 | 0.5800 | 5.45% |
$0.66 | $0.30 | |||
| BMN | 25/04/2025 | 2.1200 | 4.26% |
$4.87 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 121.7% |
|
| BOE | 25/04/2025 | 2.8400 | 9.69% |
$5.99 | $1.99 | 91.7 | $3.694 | 30.1% |
| BSN | 25/04/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 25/04/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.03 | |||
| CXO | 25/04/2025 | 0.0700 | 5.88% |
$0.17 | $0.06 | $0.090 | 28.6% |
|
| CXU | 25/04/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 25/04/2025 | 0.0900 | 18.57% |
$0.45 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 25/04/2025 | 1.0300 | 12.64% |
$1.83 | $0.75 | -1020.0 | $1.570 | 52.4% |
| EL8 | 25/04/2025 | 0.2400 | 14.29% |
$0.62 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 25/04/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 25/04/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 25/04/2025 | 0.0030 |  -25.00% |
$0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 25/04/2025 | 0.0600 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 25/04/2025 | 0.0500 | 1.96% |
$0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 25/04/2025 | 0.1200 | 8.33% |
$1.03 | $0.11 | |||
| KOB | 25/04/2025 | 0.0400 | -20.00% |
$0.18 | $0.04 | |||
| LAM | 25/04/2025 | 0.7200 | 0.00% | $1.04 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 25/04/2025 | 0.1800 | 9.68% |
$0.49 | $0.13 | $0.325 | 80.6% |
|
| MEU | 25/04/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 25/04/2025 | 8.0500 | 4.78% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $14.650 | 82.0% |
|
| ORP | 25/04/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.11 | $0.03 | |||
| PDN | 25/04/2025 | 5.7500 | 22.20% |
$17.98 | $3.93 | -333.8 | $8.407 | 46.2% |
| PEN | 25/04/2025 | 0.6200 | 0.00% | $2.44 | $0.55 | $1.000 | 61.3% |
|
| SLX | 25/04/2025 | 2.8100 | 1.09% |
$6.74 | $2.28 | $6.500 | 131.3% |
|
| TOE | 25/04/2025 | 0.2000 | 11.11% |
$0.48 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 25/04/2025 | 0.0200 | 10.53% |
$0.03 | $0.01 |
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BHP - BHP GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL - DEEP YELLOW LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED