Uranium Week: Trump’s Agressive Nuclear Push

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The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

President Trump’s latest executive orders have charged the demand dynamics for uranium, while short interests in Australian stocks have yet to budge.

-What do the persistent short interests know?
-President Trump shifts the uranium demand curve 
-U308 spot price continues to trend higher

By Danielle Ecuyer

Ok, it is not the author’s job to assess why uranium stock short interests remain stubborn in the face of changing global dynamics around nuclear energy, but honestly, it is challenging to understand why anyone would want to bet against the U3O8 sector at a time of rising AI data centre demand for energy, alongside growing geopolitical uncertainty around uranium supply chains.

President Trump views AI data centres as “critical defence facilities” and one doesn’t have to look too far to see why in the global race for artificial intelligence and data supremacy, led by the world’s largest technology companies.

Energy security and artificial intelligence are two of the most important secular megatrends, which are becoming inextricably linked.

Thus, for the uranium sector, it is hard to look past the news from last Friday as the key event for the global U3O8 industry.

Make America’s nuclear industry great again

Citi phrased President Trump’s new orders as marking the “most aggressive US nuclear policy act in decades”.

The President signed four executive orders under the Defense Production Act to scale US nuclear energy to “reestablish the United States as the global leader in nuclear energy”, including a 2050 target of 400GW (up from 100GW currently), inferring an almost doubling of global uranium demand in the US, or adding around 150mlbs per annum of uranium demand for the US alone!

Canaccord Genuity estimates annual U308 demand to grow at a compound average growth rate of 6% to 2050 for the United States.

The four orders are:

-Accelerate reactor approvals to an 18-month deadline for project reviews;

-Pilot program for experimental reactors such as small modular reactors (SMRs) to lower the cost barrier to entry and reduce regulatory imposts;

-Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission aimed at eliminating bureaucracy;

-Strengthen domestic uranium supply chains with the Department of Energy working alongside the private sector to guarantee domestic fuel processing.

Citi stresses the orders include near-term targets, including 5GW of upgrades to the existing fleet and ten new reactors to break ground by 2030, alongside the unburdening of regulatory and bureaucratic obstacles and delays.

AI is one of the main drivers, data centres are the key facilities underpinning the rollout of the technology, including the identification of 16 federal sites for AI infrastructure powered by nuclear energy. SMRs are viewed as “critical” to the success of AI. The pilot program is to construct three SMRs.

For more reading on AI fueling demand for data centres, see this recent FNArena update: https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/05/22/ai-investments-fuel-australias-data-centre-future/

Nuclear energy receives a tax credit extension, for now

The nuclear industry also received a lifeline in the US Budget Bill (“Trump’s Beautiful Big Bill”), which allowed for a carve-out from the removal of tax credits for clean energy under the Inflation Reduction Act, sooner than originally anticipated.

Nuclear projects that commence construction by 2031 will qualify for production tax credits, as well as a full tax credit for electricity produced by existing nuclear plants until 2032.

The legislation is subject to Senate approval, having passed the House of Representatives last week.

Taiwan the next country to back track on nuclear energy

The last two Uranium Weekly updates outlined the changing outlook for the global nuclear industry, and multiple countries have walked back plans to close existing nuclear energy plants.

For more details, see the following reports, including all the up-to-date ratings and target prices for ASX-listed U3O8 stocks:

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/05/20/uranium-week-europes-nuclear-about-face/
and
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/05/13/uranium-week-a-fundamental-disconnect/

Taiwan is the latest country to announce a national referendum on restarting a nuclear reactor that shut down last week. According to Bloomberg, this potentially paves the way for the government to overturn its anti-nuclear policy.

The vote is scheduled for August 23 on whether the territory’s last nuclear power plant, Maanshan, now closed, could resume operations.

Concerns are rising about the island’s ability to meet the increasing power demand from the world’s largest chip manufacturer, TSMC, on top of energy security concerns if China were to initiate a military blockade of the island.

Contrast this news with the latest short interest positions for U3O8 stocks in Australia. Boss Energy ((BOE)), Paladin Energy ((PDN)), Deep Yellow ((DYL)), and Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) occupy the first, second, seventh, and nineteenth spots in the Top 20 Largest Shorts on the ASX200, according to ASIC data up until May 19.

Stocks such as Paladin and Boss have rallied over 20% post the Trump executive orders (May 23) from May 20 and had already started to move off their 52-week lows as the U3O8 spot price recovered.

Brokers including Ord Minnett and Canaccord Genuity have been at pains to emphasise a short-covering rally was likely at some stage.

According to Ord Minnett’s estimates, the short interest for Boss, while still the highest on the ASX, has retreated to 21.5% (May 20) from a peak of 26%. The change suggests to the broker the position is closing.

Short interests on Paladin and Lotus Resources ((LOT)) remain constant.

Regarding Trump’s declaration of an Energy Emergency, Ord Minnett notes more mine supply is a negative for miners. A small uranium-vanadium mine recently received Federal approval in eleven days.

The broker continues to rate both Boss and Paladin as Buy and Lotus a Speculative Buy.

What’s happening in the uranium markets

With all the bullish macro sentiment, was this reflected in the U3O8 spot market last week?

According to industry consultants TradeTech, the spot price advanced US$1 to US$72/lb, bringing the monthly gain to 8.3%. The price remains below last year’s value by -21.1% but has been on an upward trend since the lows in April.

The consultants outline several transactions over the course of last week in both the spot and mid-term delivery markets.

Notably, utilities have moved forward their entry into the term U3O8 market, with some issuing formal Requests for Proposals and others engaged in off-market discussions with potential suppliers.

TradeTech’s Mid-Term U3O8 Price Indicator stands at US$72/lb and the Long-Term Price Indicator at US$80/lb.

FNArena broker coverage

FNArena’s daily monitored brokers have a consensus target price on Paladin of $8.507 with seven Buy-equivalent ratings, and Boss Energy enjoys a consensus target price of $3.973 with six Buy-equivalent ratings and one Hold-equivalent rating.

More U308 coverage can be found at Stock Analysis https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/consensus-forecasts/stock-analysis/

Uranium companies listed on the ASX:

ASX CODE	DATE	LAST PRICE	WEEKLY % MOVE	52WK HIGH	52WK LOW	P/E	CONSENSUS TARGET	UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE
1AE	23/05/2025	0.0700	14.29%	$0.10	$0.03
AEE	23/05/2025	0.1400	13.04%	$0.19	$0.10
AGE	23/05/2025	0.0300	11.11%	$0.06	$0.02		$0.100	233.3%
AKN	23/05/2025	0.0100	0.00%	$0.02	$0.01
ASN	23/05/2025	0.0500	– 1.85%	$0.17	$0.05
BKY	23/05/2025	0.5100	0.00%	$0.66	$0.30
BMN	23/05/2025	3.0100	8.02%	$4.62	$1.76		$4.700	56.1%
BOE	23/05/2025	4.3400	11.17%	$5.16	$1.99	233.2	$3.973	– 8.5%
BSN	23/05/2025	0.0200	7.14%	$0.10	$0.01
C29	23/05/2025	0.0400	0.00%	$0.13	$0.03
CXO	23/05/2025	0.1000	– 2.13%	$0.15	$0.06		$0.100
CXU	23/05/2025	0.0100	0.00%	$0.04	$0.01
DEV	23/05/2025	0.0900	– 2.38%	$0.45	$0.07
DYL	23/05/2025	1.4600	2.47%	$1.74	$0.75	-1410.0	$1.570	7.5%
EL8	23/05/2025	0.3300	3.33%	$0.54	$0.19
ERA	23/05/2025	0.0020	0.00%	$0.05	$0.00
GLA	23/05/2025	0.0100	0.00%	$0.02	$0.01
GTR	23/05/2025	0.0100	-25.00%	$0.01	$0.00
GUE	23/05/2025	0.0700	16.67%	$0.11	$0.05
HAR	23/05/2025	0.0600	7.55%	$0.12	$0.03
I88	23/05/2025	0.1200	-11.11%	$1.03	$0.08
KOB	23/05/2025	0.0400	0.00%	$0.18	$0.04
LAM	23/05/2025	0.7200	0.00%	$1.04	$0.48
LOT	23/05/2025	0.2100	12.12%	$0.48	$0.13		$0.325	54.8%
MEU	23/05/2025	0.0400	0.00%	$0.06	$0.03
NXG	23/05/2025	9.8200	9.22%	$13.53	$6.44		$14.650	49.2%
ORP	23/05/2025	0.0300	0.00%	$0.10	$0.03
PDN	23/05/2025	6.5600	1.94%	$16.40	$3.93	-273.6	$8.507	29.7%
PEN	23/05/2025	0.6200	0.00%	$2.40	$0.55		$1.000	61.3%
SLX	23/05/2025	3.5300	11.11%	$6.62	$2.28		$6.500	84.1%
TOE	23/05/2025	0.2000	– 2.56%	$0.39	$0.15
WCN	23/05/2025	0.0300	3.45%	$0.04	$0.01

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