The Monday Report – 27 October 2025

This story features MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED, and other companies.
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A softer than expected September CPI print, boosted US indices on Friday for another positive week.

The ASX200 also finished higher last week, trading just off a new record high set last Tuesday.

Futures are pointing to another positive start ahead of a big week of macro and earnings events.

World Overnight
SPI Overnight	9061.00	+ 26.00	0.29%
S&P ASX 200	9019.00	– 13.80	– 0.15%
S&P500	6791.69	+ 53.25	0.79%
Nasdaq Comp	23204.87	+ 263.07	1.15%
DJIA	47207.12	+ 472.51	1.01%
S&P500 VIX	16.37	– 0.93	– 5.38%
US 10-year yield	4.00	+ 0.01	0.15%
USD Index	98.75	+ 0.01	0.01%
FTSE100	9645.62	+ 67.05	0.70%
DAX30	24239.89	+ 32.10	0.13%

Good Morning,

The ASX200 finished 23 points higher last week at 9019, coming slightly off Tuesday’s record high of 9,115  led by energy, real estate utilities and information technology sectors.

What happened overnight, NAB Markets Today Research extract

Equities rallied into the weekend, buoyed by softer-than-expected US CPI and growing conviction the Fed will deliver a “dovish cut” at this week’s FOMC. Bond markets were steady, while in commodities gold extended its weekly decline and oil prices consolidated.

The US-China relationship has been the focus over the weekend with negotiators announcing a “very successful” framework for the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in South Korea. Treasury Secretary Bessent described the talks as “constructive, far-reaching and in-depth”.

Staying with the trade theme, President Trump announced a fresh 10% tariff on Canadian imports, citing a “serious misrepresentation” of Ronald Reagan’s comments in an Ontario ad campaign.

The move, which comes on top of existing 35% tariffs (with USMCA-compliant goods still largely exempt), has drawn calls for diplomacy from Canadian officials.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce and trade minister LeBlanc both expressed hope for a negotiated solution, but uncertainty lingers as both sides prepare for further talks at the ASEAN summit. The hope is that Prime Minister Carney will have a chance during the summit to speak to President Trump and find a way to ease tensions.

The US September CPI report was the data release to watch on Friday, the headline CPI printed at 0.3% m/m and core gained 0.2%—both a tick below consensus.

The softer print has locked in expectations for a -25bp Fed rate cut this week, with markets also pricing in another move in December. The underlying trend, however, remains sticky, with tariffs pushing up goods prices and services inflation showing only tentative signs of easing.

The government shutdown means October CPI may not be released, which adds a layer of uncertainty for the next FOMC decision in December.

Friday was also PMI day (Oct). US PMIs painted a resilient picture, with the composite index rising to 54.8 in October (from 53.9), led by services at 55.2 and manufacturing at 52.2. 

The data suggest underlying growth of around 3% at the start of Q4, though the relationship with GDP remains loose. Price indices were mixed, with manufacturing output prices rising but services output prices easing, hinting at divergent inflation pressures.

In Europe, the composite PMI rose to 52.2, its highest since May, driven by a strong rebound in German services (54.5) even as France continued to lag. The ECB is expected to keep rates on hold this week, with inflation near target and growth still subdued. 

UK PMIs also improved, with the composite at 51.1, but the outlook remains cautious as consumer spending slows.

Japan’s PMIs softened, with both manufacturing and services slipping, and CPI data showing core inflation still above 2% but moderating on a monthly basis. The latter point, food for thoughts for the doves within the BoJ.

Trading in the week ahead: Chris Weston, Pepperstone extract

Weekend news has centred on the two days of talks between U.S. and Chinese trade representatives, with Scott Bessent stating on U.S. television a deal is essentially good to go and set to be announced post Thursday’s meeting between Trump and Xi, and that the threat of 100% additional tariffs is off the table.

Beyond U.S.–China trade, it’s a big week ahead, with the calendar packed with scheduled event risk.

Donald Trump’s Asia tour takes centre stage this week, with global markets fixated on his highly anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday. Trump has signaled he’s open to extending the 90-day tariff truce and removing the threat of 100% additional tariffs, if China makes concessions, including:

• Relaxing restrictions on U.S. firms exporting products containing China-sourced rare earths
• Resuming large-scale purchases of U.S. soybeans
• Demonstrating stronger enforcement on fentanyl supply chains

Reports from the weekend meeting between Scott Bessent and the Chinese Vice President indicate a deal has been finalised, with the conditions outlined above met and set to be formally announced following the Trump–Xi meeting on Thursday.

Markets had largely viewed this as the higher-probability outcome, so the news won’t come as a major surprise and is partly priced. 

Central Bank Meeting Bonanza: Fed, BoC, ECB, and BoJ: A huge week for global monetary policy as four major G10 central banks —the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan— hold meetings.

• Fed & BoC: Interest-rate swaps imply a -25bp rate cut from each
• ECB & BoJ: Both are expected to hold policy steady
• The BoC meeting offers the greatest potential surprise versus market pricing, though the FOMC meeting will command global trader attention.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut the Fed funds rate by -25 basis points, with almost no market pricing for an alternative outcome.

• Governor Stephen Miran is likely to dissent in favour of a -50bp cut, but all other voters should align behind -25bp
• The focus will also be on whether the Fed formally ends its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program or signals it will wind it down in coming months
• In his press conference, Chair Jerome Powell will likely avoid committing to another -25bp cut at the December meeting, given the Fed would essentially have three months of new data to consider by that meeting, as well as potentially important developments on the trade front. 

U.S. Q3 Corporate Earnings: Mega-Cap Tech Takes the Stage: It’s the busiest week of the quarter for U.S. earnings, with around 45% of S&P 500 market cap reporting.

• Five of the “Magnificent 7” companies report: Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple.
• A point of note, Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet release results two hours after the FOMC meeting, setting up a higher-volatility period for equities in the after-market period, and the NAS100 and US500
• Retail-trader favourites Coinbase, Reddit, and Riot Platforms also report Thursday.

US Q3 Earnings: The State of Play so far: 29% of S&P500 companies have reported quarterly earnings. 85% of the S&P500 companies have beaten expectations on EPS by an average of 7.7%, whilst 69% of co’s has beaten consensus expectations on revenue. The average % change on the day of reporting earnings is plus-0.9%, which is impressive relative to prior quarters.

Negotiations between Republicans and Democrats remain deadlocked, with no clear path yet to re-open the government. Rising health-insurance premiums under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on 1 November are adding urgency, as Democrats aim to avoid further cost pressures

Australia Q3 CPI (Wednesday): RBA Policy in Play: A critical data point for AUD and AUS200 traders. Wednesday’s Q3 CPI will shape expectations ahead of the RBA’s 4 November meeting (cash rate currently 3.6%).

Economists’ Consensus Expectations:

-Headline CPI up 1.1% q/q, 3% y/y

-Trimmed Mean CPI: up 0.8% q/q, up 2.7% y/y

Possible Scenarios:

-plus/minus 0.7% q/q or lower: Strengthens the case for the RBA to cut rates by -25bp in November.

-plus/minus 0.9% q/q: The market likely prices a 50% probability of a -25bp cut in November.

-1.0% q/q or higher: RBA likely holds rates steady at 3.6% in November.

Nvidia hosts its annual AI developers’ conference this week, with CEO Jensen Huang delivering his keynote on Tuesday (12 p.m. ET).

Historically, GTC has been a catalyst for AI stocks and semiconductor optimism, as investors react to innovation themes and forward-looking product announcements.

Corporate news in Australia

-National Australia Bank has hired Macquarie Group ((MQG)) to assist with the acquisition of HSBC’s Australian retail banking arm.

-UBS will restart the $1bn Scottish Pacific sale next year, with Warburg Pincus possibly returning as a bidder after earlier price dispute.

-Wind and solar power BayWa portfolio is being sold for around $750m led by Macquarie Capital ((MQG)) with Igneo Infrastructure Partners interested.

-Anteris Technologies ((AVR)) has raised $38.5m through ASX-listed chess depositary interests at $7.50. L1 Capital backs the medtech.

On the calendar today:

-AU RBA Gov Bullock Fireside Chat

-US Sep Adv. Durable Goods (suspended)

-EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED ((APE)) investor briefing

-BEGA CHEESE LIMITED ((BGA)) AGM

-BATHURST RESOURCES LIMITED ((BRL)) Sept Quarterly

-FLEETWOOD LIMITED ((FWD)) AGM

-GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED ((GGP)) 1Q26 update

-PANTORO GOLD LIMITED ((PNR)) Sept Quarterly/Investor Call

-RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RMS)) Sept Quarterly/Investor Call

-SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Sept Quarterly/Investor Call

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz)	4137.80	+ 13.59	0.33%
Silver (oz)	48.59	+ 0.10	0.20%
Copper (lb)	5.12	+ 0.04	0.81%
Aluminium (lb)	1.30	– 0.00	– 0.11%
Nickel (lb)	6.84	+ 0.07	1.00%
Zinc (lb)	1.37	+ 0.00	0.06%
West Texas Crude	61.50	– 0.15	– 0.24%
Brent Crude	65.20	– 0.63	– 0.96%
Iron Ore (t)	105.41	– 0.14	– 0.13%

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

Index	24 Oct 2025	Week To Date	Month To Date (Oct)	Quarter To Date (Oct-Dec)	Year To Date (2025)
S&P ASX 200 (ex-div)	9019.00	0.26%	1.92%	1.92%	10.54%

BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
29M	29Metals	Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral	Macquarie
3DA	Amaero	Downgrade to Hold from Buy	Shaw and Partners
4DX	4DMedical	Downgrade to Accumulate from Speculative Buy	Ord Minnett
AIS	Aeris Resources	Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral	Macquarie
		Downgrade to Hold from Buy	Bell Potter
		Downgrade to Accumulate from Speculative Buy	Morgans
ASG	Autosports Group	Upgrade to Buy from Neutral	UBS
CDA	Codan	Neutral	UBS
DNL	Dyno Nobel	Downgrade to Neutral from Buy	UBS
KAR	Karoon Energy	Upgrade to Buy from Hold	Morgans
NST	Northern Star Resources	Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold	Ord Minnett
		Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy	Morgans
NTU	Northern Minerals	Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold	Ord Minnett
QOR	Qoria	Downgrade to Sell from Hold	Shaw and Partners
TPW	Temple & Webster	Upgrade to Buy from Hold	Bell Potter
WDS	Woodside Energy	Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate	Morgans

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

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