The Week Ahead: Decisions, Decisions

This story features METCASH LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MTS

By Greg Peel

It could well be a case of strap yourself in, as five of the world’s larger economies will be making monetary policy decisions this week at a time when currencies are volatile. However, there is little expectation that any of Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Europe or the UK will change rates at all.

Australia (6.75%) went last month, New Zealand (8.25%) is on hold and not looking to go any higher for the moment, Canada (4.5%) would possibly like to ease given growth concerns but will hold due to its tight capacity and labour markets, while both Europe (4.00%) and the UK (5.75%) would really rather raise but won’t due to credit market concerns. If anything, there’s an outside chance the UK could cut.

There are some important data releases for Australia this week, nevertheless. Releases that will likely to do little to sway consensus that February will see the next move up from the RBA, before further moves.

Monday brings the October trade balance, and September quarter inventories and company profits. Tuesday sees October building approvals and retail sales. Wednesday is rate day, accompanied by September quarter GDP. That will do for one week.

Canada makes its rate decision on Tuesday while New Zealand, Europe and the UK all makes theirs on Thursday.

The next US rate decision is on  Tuesday, December 11. Ben Bernanke has intimated that data releases this week will be important in finalising a conclusion.

The November ISM manufacturing index is released on Monday, along with November vehicle sales. Wednesday sees the November ISM non-manufacturing index, September quarter productivity and unit labour costs, and October factory orders.

Friday is the big one – November jobs data. This is what Bernanke and Co will be holding their breath for. Friday also brings the University of Michigan consumer confidence measure for December.

On the local corporate front we are thankfully reaching the end of AGMs, as the flood turns into a bare trickle. Metcash ((MTS)) posts its interim result on Tuesday while Coca-Cola Amatil ((CCL)) provides a trading update this week and Perpetual ((PPT)) a strategy briefing. See the FNArena calendar for details.

With the end of the AGMs analyst research will also turn into a trickle, as analysts start putting on their party hats. Wish them well – the December party schedule can be long and unrelenting.

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