The Overnight Report: Sandy Cracks

This story features NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NAB

By Greg Peel

The good news is that despite reports to the contrary, the NYSE was not under four feet of water yesterday, and all stock and bond markets will reopen for normal service, including floor trading, tonight. The bad news is Sandy has left a trail of devastation and death.

US stocks are not expected to plunge from the open, with earlier drops in futures prices now largely reversed. The S&P 500 futures trading electronically on the CME overnight shows little change from Friday's close. European stock markets seemed set to waver on Monday night when Sandy was yet to make landfall, but rebounded strongly last night with London up 1.0%, Germany up 1.1% and France up 1.5%.

The NYSE and Nasdaq may be back to “normal” tonight, but things will still be far from normal for New York headquartered firms, many of which are located below Wall Street and were indeed inundated with flood water and remain without power. The NYSE will be relying on its back-up generators. The subway will also remain closed, preventing many from attending offices. As to how such firms cope will come down to their own contingency plans and systems.

This is important, because not only is tonight the last day of the month, on which portfolio prices need to be marked for reporting purposes, it is also the last day of the tax year for some mutual funds. It is typical on such days to see profit-taking pushing one way and “window dressing” pushing the other, as traders look to lock in bonuses and funds try to look as good as possible in their returns. Such days are usually high-volume and can be volatile, but in Sandy's wake it is likely volume will remain thin and volatility may reign.

US economic data releases did begin to trickle through last night, with September personal income and spending numbers, previously due on Monday night, released. Consumer spending jumped by a better than expected 0.8% to continue a near contradictory trend of renewed consumer confidence. Auto sales were a feature, and these can be lumpy month to month, and the numbers also reflected the release of the iPhone5. New iThings are not set to be released every month. Higher fuel costs were also reflected in the figures.

More concerning to economists was the more modest 0.4% rise in incomes, which mean savings levels are falling as consumers once again dip in. If incomes cannot rise to match spending growth, economists expect a pullback in spending before savings dwindle too far.

We were otherwise expecting consumer confidence data and the Case-Shiller house price index last night, but these releases have been postponed until tonight or later in the week. Tonight will also, in theory, see the ADP private sector jobs number for October.

As one would assume, election campaigning from both camps has been halted. President Obama has been cropping up about the place making rousing speeches over the last 48 hours, which will no doubt grate with the Republicans as they try to maintain a publicly solemn demeanor. There was talk yesterday of possibly postponing election day if voters in devastated areas were to be disadvantaged, but that remains up in the air it would seem. Presumably an election is not postponed due simply to candidates missing out on the opportunity for last minute canvassing.

Markets elsewhere remained subdued last night. The euro reversed Monday night's Berlusconi-related fall to send the US dollar index down 0.4% to 79.94. Gold ticked up a buck to US$1710.00/oz and the Aussie is up 0.3% to US$1.0366. US bonds markets were closed.

Base metals staged a modest come-back in London and the oils were quiet, with Brent down US36c to US$109.08/bbl and West Texas little changed at US$85.63/bbl.

Spot iron ore fell by US20c to US$119.80/t.

The SPI Overnight was keen to get on with it, rising 23 points or 0.5%.

We await to see how Wall Street copes tonight, but in the meantime there are a huge number of local resource sector production reports out today and NAB ((NAB)) will release its official full-year result, adding more colour to its earlier profit warning.
 

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