ASX 200 Bounce Likely

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By Michael Gable 

We had a mixed weekend where positive reaction to the stronger than expected nonfarm payroll data could be offset by disappointing data out of China. The only bright spot was the lower than expected Chinese inflation data which suggests stimulus measures could continue to be introduced if push comes to shove and we once again get renewed fears of a hard landing.

The falling Aussie dollar theme is continuing to play out and as a result I still expect our companies with US dollar revenues to outperform. I also spoke last week of the banks bouncing short term. After heading lower for a couple of days there, we will likely see the start of that bounce today. I have covered Woolworths ((WOW)) in today’s report as that should also do the same thing. Coca-Cola Amatil ((CCL)) is about to bounce any day now after suffering a 20% fall from its recent highs. So in terms of a short term trade, CCL could be the one to watch.

ASX 200

We have reached a situation where the anticipated weakness on the XJO is finally coming to an end for the short term. I would anticipate our market to now string together a few days on the upside but it is still difficult to determine the ultimate level. We could ultimately head to 4900 or 5000 over coming weeks. If we breach 5000 though then we may get the strange scenario where the market goes to a new high for the year and then fails spectacularly all the way down towards 4500. The precedence I am using for that is the price action in early 2010.
 

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Visit Michael Gable's website at  www.michaelgable.com.au/.

After leaving Macquarie Bank's Securities Group in 2008 after many years of service, Michael has gained a highly regarded reputation in the financial services industry. As a Private Client Adviser with Novus Capital, Michael has become a popular live commentator and analyst for Sky News Business Channel’s “Your Money, Your Call” program. He is also the author of the weekly stock market report “The Dynamic Investor”.

Michael assists investors to achieve their goals by providing advice ranging from short term trading to longer term portfolio management.

Michael deals in all ASX listed securities and specialises in covered call writing to help long term investors protect their share portfolios and generate additional income.

Michael is RG146 Accredited and holds the following formal qualifications:

• Bachelor of Engineering, Hons. (University of Sydney) 
• Bachelor of Commerce (University of Sydney) 
• Diploma of Mortgage Lending (Finsia) 
• Diploma of Financial Services [Financial Planning] (Finsia) 
• Completion of ASX Accredited Derivatives Adviser Levels 1 & 2

Disclaimer

Michael Gable is an Authorised Representative (Rep. No. 376892) of Novus Capital Limited AFSL 238168 ACN 006 711 995. Michael Gable and Novus Capital Limited, their associates and respective Directors and staff each declare that they, from time to time, may hold interests in securities and/or earn brokerage, fees, interest, or other benefits from products and services mentioned in this website. This website may contain unsolicited general information, without regard to any investor's individual objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not specific advice for any particular investor. Before making any decision about the information provided, you must consider the appropriateness of the information in this website or the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or Financial Services Guide (FSG), having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs and consult your adviser. Any indicative information and assumptions used here are summarised and also may change without notice to you, particularly if based on past performance. Michael Gable and Novus Capital Limited believes that any information or advice (including any securities recommendation) contained in this website is accurate when issued but does not warrant its accuracy or reliability. Michael Gable and Novus Capital Limited are not obliged to update you if the information or its advice changes. Michael Gable and Novus Capital Limited and each of their respective officers, agents and employees exclude to the full extent permitted by law, all liability of any kind, in negligence, contract, under fiduciary duties or otherwise, for any loss or damage, whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise, whether foreseeable or not, to the extent arising from or in connection with this website.

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