Next Week At A Glance

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For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.
 

By Greg Peel

At this stage the FNArena Calendar is showing “US debt ceiling deadline” as an entry for next Thursday. The hope was (as suggested by a 300 point Dow rally) that this morning's meeting between Boehner and Obama would head off a debt ceiling stalemate and thus potential US default but the late breaking news is that Obama has rejected the Republican's deal for a ceiling deadline extension as it does not include a reopening of the government.

So as you were.

The news sparked an initial sell-off in the Dow futures but so far the retracement has been very minimal. Meanwhile, the ASX 200 has shot up 1.3% as the Overnight SPI suggested. If the Dow is going to hold its 300 point rally, then Wall Street is still seeing this Obama rejection as a minor set-back ahead of a wider Republican capitulation.

What happens tonight and/or perhaps over the weekend will determine the tenor of Wall Street and global markets next week, so wait we must.

Next week’s scheduled US economic data releases are still up in the air whether the government reopens or not, given no one has been around to collect some of the numbers. So I can suggest that we may or may not see the CPI, housing start and industrial production numbers but we should see the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing indices, the housing sentiment index, the Fed Beige Book and the Conference Board leading index.

And while Washington fiddles, US corporate life goes on. That means quarterly earnings reports and lots of them, beginning with JP Morgan (Dow) and Wells Fargo tonight, with a rash of banks and tech companies, including many Dow components reporting next week.

It’s Columbus Day in the US on Monday which sees banks closed but financial markets open, so it will possibly be a thin day’s trading if a long weekend beckons.

Japan will be fully closed on Monday.

China will be in the frame next week, big time. Tomorrow sees the October trade balance and Monday inflation data, followed up on Friday by the monthly industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment “dump” and…drum roll…the September quarter GDP. Beijing’s quarterly stab in the dark will be one of the most highly anticipated for some time.

It will also be a busy week in Australia.

On the economic front, we’ll see housing finance and investment lending data and the minutes of the October RBA meeting. On the corporate front, it’s all happening.

The AGM season steps up a gear next week, with meetings for Telstra ((TLS)), Cochlear ((COH)) and Qantas ((QAN)) among the highlights. We will also be in the thick of resource sector quarterly production reports, with BHP Billiton ((BHP)), Fortescue Metals ((FMG)), Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) and Santos ((STO)) among the reporters. And to top things off, Ten Network ((TEN)) will report its full-year earnings.

Otherwise, all hinges on Washington.
 

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