Icarus Signal New Entries For Today

Daily update on share prices and consensus price targets.

Earlier in the year, Icarus watched increasing popularity for Real Estate Property Trusts pushing up prices above targets, which made for a rather unusual cocktail. REITs becoming too expensively priced? The world indeed has changed, and a lot!

But Mr Market's attention has shifted since then and there are at this point in time no REITs on Icarus' radar. Not one. Funny how "sentiment" more than anything else can have such a big influence, isn't it?

A quick glance through some of the previous stars in the sector shows they all received firm rejections above target, sometimes more than one, and a gap has opened up since; one that doesn't appear about to be filled soon. The irony in this story is that for some of these REITs market confidence in future earnings and dividend payouts has actually increased during the August reporting season, while price targets moved higher.

To illustrate my point, here's a chart for one such former market darling, Dexus Property ((DXS)). See what I mean? Admittedly, consensus forecasts are for no growth in the two years ahead and dividend yield is only 6.4%, but what then were investors thinking earlier in the year?

Today, the "couleur du jour" consists of gold miners, small ones by preference. There's quite some research available suggesting either that gold miners' shares will continue catching up on the gold price, or that the gold price has a lot further to run still, or both. Shares in Newcrest ((NCM)) haven't done much thus far this calendar year, but some of the smaller sector representatives have received a lot of attention recently.

Turbulent times on the Australian share market this week have significantly re-shuffled Icarus' lists with only 12 stocks left trading in the vicinity of their target and 15 others above target. As indicated above, the one consistent thread in September is gold stocks. We have Alacer Gold ((AQG)), Resolute Mining ((RSG)) and St Barbara ((SBM)) already trading above consensus targets while Regis ((RRL)) and Perseus ((PRU)) are below but close to target. One wonders how long it will take for these two to join the first three? Unless, of course, gold finally sees that long awaited pull back.

One would have to say such a pull back would probably only mark a blip in an ongoing uptrend as market dynamics have definitely improved for gold, a fact re-iterated multiple times in various research reports that have come across my desk these past weeks.

Meanwhile, Cochlear's ((COH)) fall from above target to the Bottom 50 in a few trading sessions only is without any doubt the fastest reversal I have witnessed over the years.

Investors should consider the information and data are provided for research purposes only.

Stocks <3% Below Consensus

Order Symbol Current Price($) Consensus Target($) Difference(%) 1 PBD $ 0.05 $ 0.05 0.00% 2 TGR $ 1.36 $ 1.36 0.00% 3 MND $ 18.80 $ 18.98 0.96% 4 FGL $ 4.90 $ 5.00 1.96% 5 ARP $ 8.52 $ 8.70 2.11% 6 SDM $ 2.14 $ 2.19 2.48% 7 GNG $ 1.98 $ 2.03 2.53%

Stocks Above Consensus

Order Symbol Current Price($) Consensus Target($) Difference(%) 1 MMX $ 0.57 $ 0.56 – 0.88% 2 TWE $ 3.41 $ 3.38 – 1.00% 3 COH $ 60.10 $ 59.20 – 1.50% 4 SDG $ 0.74 $ 0.70 – 5.41%

Top 50 Stocks Furthest from Consensus

Order Symbol Current Price($) Consensus Target($) Difference(%) 1 FKP $ 0.51 $ 0.85 65.88%

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