REPEAT Rudi’s View: The FNArena Quiz (Prizes To Be Won)

This story features WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WOW

(This story was originally published on October 12th. It has now been repeated to make it available to non-paying members at FNArena and to readers elsewhere).

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Last week's Trading and Investing Expo in Melbourne delivered a few genuine surprises. I thoroughly enjoyed the fiery exchanges on the Grand Stage panel between Clifford Bennett and GFT's Boris Schlossberg. Clifford is convinced the Mother of All Bull Market Rallies is about to take off and Boris is equally convinced that we are, and will remain for a long time, in a deep structural Bear market.

I don't think we are in a bull market and I suggest neither should you, but I find it fascinating, to say the least, how much persistence and conviction comes with the view from Clifford Bennett. Load up and leverage to the gills, is his advice. He said it a few times too.

Boris is skeptical about China's longer term perspectives, citing "inbred corruption" as the factor that will ultimately bring down the Middle Kingdom's economic miracle.

One FNArena subscriber later on introduced me to Boris and I took the opportunity to explain as to why I think his skepticism about the Australian housing market is probably too dire. Ten minutes on and we all agreed: a time will come when Australia's crazy-expensive property prices will turn into a heavy burden, but not just yet. The key factor is "forced selling". As long as there isn't any, or very little of it, there is no reason as to why house prices in Australia should go through a sizeable downward correction. I cannot see it becoming a factor in the short to medium term, so that should prevent any of the internationally popular doom-and-gloom scenarios from happening.

Later, Boris paid a quick visit to my own presentation. He particularly liked the slide with one of my popular Dennis Gartman quotes: "The market is the sum total of all wisdom and stupidity of everyone who trades in it".

Away from the limelight, I picked up a that lot of traders burnt big holes in their wallets during the ultra-volatile days of August and September.

One subscriber approached me and explained how his portfolio was up by 5% since last year, with the sole exception of BHP Billiton ((BHP)). He explained outside BHP, all stocks had been chosen through the R-Factor tables on the FNArena website. I forgot his name and should have asked more questions, but maybe there's a second chance?

If you are that person, would you be so kind and send an email to info@fnarena.com? I think your story deserves a wider audience and it might even assist other subscribers in their strategies and investments. I would like to know which stocks you chose, when and why. It's probably a fair assumption there are more readers and subscribers who'd also like to find out more details.

In fact, while I am on the subject, if there are any others who'd like to share their stories, you can contact us too at the above address (highly appreciated).

The most perplexing moment I experienced on the Saturday when a vibrant lady with oversized sunglasses approached me and confided she'd bought David Jones shares back in 2003 at $1.12 a piece. This was 2c better than the price I mentioned in my David Jones versus Rio Tinto story!

I must admit, I nearly became a bit emotional. It is one thing to write a story about how investors should have bought David Jones shares in 2003 and held on to them in order to significantly beat the share market returns, but it is a completely different proposition to meet an actual person who confirms from first experience that my analysis was correct and executable. It turned out, this lady not only has a knack of picking the right dividend paying stocks, and she has a few – all with positive returns today, but she also has an impeccable timing, selling her complete portfolio in January 2008 and buying back in the market after March 2009.

By now a small audience had gathered around the two of us. I said: have you ever thought about publishing your own newsletter? I'll subscribe!

One oft asked question is whether I know what's going on with JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) shares?

Other than "retailers are out of fashion" and "it doesn't look like this year's Xmas will be a good one", I know investors are increasingly worried that sellers of technology and gadgets, like JB Hi-Fi, have grown too dependent on Apple products. Also, Telstra and JB Hi-Fi made a mutually beneficial deal for mobile phones last year, but with Telstra not willing to repeat the deal, the odds seem in favour for disappointment for JB Hi-Fi due to unfavourable comparison with last year. Other than all that, retailers will probably rally if and when the RBA cuts the cash rate on Melbourne Cup day and I know for certain part of the trading community is assuming such.

I also remain of the view that de-rating processes always run longer than everybody always assumes, just look at Woolworths ((WOW)) and CSL ((CSL)). I am thus not certain whether the process at JB Hi-Fi has run full course yet. When it comes to seeking exposure to Australian retailers, OrotonGroup ((ORL)) and Super Retail Group ((SUL)) remain head-and-shoulders above the rest. I am far from the only one with this assessment.

Lastly, but certainly not the least, I have the pleasure to announce a quiz – everyone can participate. We have a long standing tradition of educating investors here at FNArena. Today's quiz is an attempt to try out a different concept.

Below is a list of ten stocks. These stocks have not been picked randomly. What is it that these ten stocks have in common?

Send your answer to info@fnarena.com

We'll throw in a free six months subscription to FNArena and various investment books, depending on the response and any correct answers, of course.

The ten stocks in question are (in no particular order):

– Campbell Brothers ((CPB))
– Domino's Pizza ((DMP))
– ARB Corp ((ARP))
– Blackmores ((BKL))
– Reckon ((RKN))
– Ramsay Healthcare ((RHC))
– Mc Millan Shakespeare ((MMS))
– M2 Telecommunications ((MTU))
– Hansen Technologies ((HSN))
– Coca Cola Amatil ((CCL))

All answers to info@fnarena.com

Finally, my final live presentation for the year will take place on Monday (October 17th) in Sydney. Details below. You are all encouraged to attend.

"Share Market: Nobody Knows, Everybody Speculates"

The presentation is on behalf of the Australian Technical Analysts' Association (ATAA). Access to the event is free for first time visitors ($30 for others, non-members).

The venue is the Bowlers Club at 99 On York. The address is 95-99 York Street, Sydney, between Market and King Streets. The nearest railway station is Town Hall station. The nearest car park is QVB (Queen Victoria Building). If you enter the car park after 5.00 pm, the parking fee is $12.

The presentation will run from 6-8pm.

More information can be found at:

http://www.ataa.com.au/display-view/sydney-monday-20th-july-at-5-15pm/sydney-meeting.html

Extra Note: I really would appreciate if the subscriber mentioned above would get in contact: info@fnarena.com

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

P.S. I – All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert for my Rudi's View stories. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of 'Rudi's View'. You will receive an email alert every time a new Rudi's View story has been published on the website. 

 

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