The Overnight Report: Markets Rely On Hope

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By Greg Peel

The Dow rose 178 points or 1.5% while the S&P gained 1.6% to 1237 and the Nasdaq added 1.3%.

As I write, Greek prime minister George Papandreou is in a hastily arranged meeting ordered by his counterparts in France and Germany. One presumes Merkel and Sarkozy are anything but relaxed. By the time you read this there may be some major announcement, or minor announcement, or a stalemate.

Beyond that there have been some developments in the last 24 hours. European officials are insisting that if there is to be a referendum in Greece, it must happen by December 18. Papandreou initially suggested January. An unnamed G20 official has declared that all bail-out fund aid to Greece will be frozen until the Greek government can provide more clarity on its intentions. The EU and IMF have said no money will be forthcoming until after the referendum (and one presumes not at all if the vote is “no”).

The G20 leaders meeting begins tonight and from the top will include a “mini-summit” on the latest developments out of Greece. On Friday Papandreou's fate will be determined by a confidence vote from his government which he himself has called. If that vote is “no”, then we can only assume a referendum is off the cards. But then we might have to wait for a Greek general election before the European rescue plan can move forward. Everything is still up in the air.

In the meantime, northern hemisphere stock markets rebounded from the outset last night, in the wake of a less panicked response from Asia, following two days of very steep falls. France bounced back 1.4% and Germany 2.3% and Wall Street shot up from the bell to see the Dow 219 points higher around 11am.

Bargain hunting was suggested as the impetus with perhaps a feeling Europe will come down like a ton of bricks on Greece and force the issue. In Wall Street's case, a positive result from the ADP private sector jobs report was also a fillip.

ADP reported 110,000 jobs were added in October compared to expectations of 100,000. September's result of 91,000 was revised up to 116,000. Better to be up than down, but these are not results which can move the unemployment rate dial. Economists are forecasting a non-farm payroll result on Friday of 90,000 jobs added with unemployment steady at 9.1%. Moving the dial requires at least 200,000.

Unemployment is very much in focus at the Fed and so it was the latest Fed monetary policy statement was released at lunch time. On its release, Wall Street initially fell back.

In the statement the Fed trimmed its expectations for US economic growth in 2012-13 and increased its unemployment expectations. The implication is that growth will be slower than previously assumed and that high unemployment will linger longer than previously assumed. This is not exactly a bomb shell, but the initial response was to sell. However, that old theme of “bad news is good” then began to assert itself.

Last night's meeting was followed by one of Ben Bernanke's quarterly press conferences. In it he declared the US economy to be frustratingly slow” and “very unsatisfactory”. He reiterated that the Fed “still has tools” at its disposal (read: QE3) which will be deployed if necessary. This is not new news, but the more “frustrated” Bernanke becomes the closer QE3 moves towards implementation.

There are many who argue that if we need QE3 it means QEs 1 and 2 didn't work so why would QE3 be different? At least, however, the earlier strategies sparked stock market rallies, both of which were then shot down by Europe. So Wall Street decided the Fed news was good news and bought again, ensuring a solid close.

For the rest of the markets, we are back in limbo land again. The exception is gold, which on the implications of more money printing rose another US$15.90 to US$1735.40/oz. The US dollar index was otherwise only down slightly to 77.12 and the Aussie is little changed at US$1.0377.

Copper rebounded 2% last night but the other metals were steady. Brent crude lost US38c to US$109.16/bbl and West Texas gained US32c to US$92.50/bbl. The US stock markets may have been more domestically focussed last night but the bond market appeared to have one eye still firmly on Europe, as the ten-year yield was unchanged at 2.00%.

Similarly the VIX is not about to imply any sighs of relief just yet and it is hovering around 33.

The SPI Overnight was up 43 points or 1.0%.

News Corp ((NWS)) issued its quarterly result after the bell which showed a slight fall in profit due to one-offs. Commentary otherwise suggested the company was successfully managing itself through troubled times. News shares are little moved in the US after-market.

By contrast, Qualcomm, which makes chips and other thingies for wireless doodads such as iPhones, posted a 22% profit increase and a big beat to see its shares up 9% in the after-market.

The ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) full-year result is now out. The G20 leaders begin their meeting tonight and tonight also sees the first ECB monetary policy meeting under the auspices of the new president. Will he make his mark and make the cut Trichet was incapable of delivering? Probably not while turmoil still reigns. (Mind you I said that re Stevens.)

Rudi will appear on Sky Business today at noon. 

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