The Overnight Report: Fatigue? Not For The Twits

This story features COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CBA

By Greg Peel

The Dow fell 152 points or 1.0% while the S&P lost 1.3% to 1747 and the Nasdaq dropped 1.9%.

They’re a skittish mob, those forex traders. No sooner had the cowboys bought up the Aussie on a lower than expected Australian monthly trade deficit, they sold it off again yesterday on supposedly weak jobs numbers. Up a cent, down a cent, and dosie-doe your partner.

Australia added only 1,100 new jobs in October, as part-time jobs rose 29 thousand-ish and full-time jobs fell 28 thousand-ish. Hours worked increased by 0.4%, indicating a continuing trend in attempts to increase productivity (ie longer hours per worker) as opposed to new hires. Economists had forecast 7,500 new jobs, but then the last time economists got the jobs number right we were building the Harbour Bridge.

The unemployment rate remained steady at 5.7% and the participation rate was steady at 64.8%. The question is: is this a weak result and if so, does it imply another RBA rate cut (as forex traders were implying)?

ANZ thinks not. The ANZ economists suggest there are tentative signs the employment situation could actually improve a little in coming months, given a flattening trend in the ABS numbers and in the ANZ job ads lead indicator. But the numbers will still remain on the soft side, with the actual rate of unemployment steady on weak participation. Most disturbing is a steeply rising rate of youth unemployment. Don’t expect them to leave home anytime soon. The pick-up in housing will keep the RBA on the sidelines, ANZ suggests, although the economists are not forecasting a rate rise before 2015.

While the Aussie may have responded sharply to the jobs numbers, Bridge Street continued to spend November going nowhere. Yesterday’s fall is accounted for by two big banks going ex. It’s difficult to see where any Santa Rally might come from this year. Santa Rallies have been a stalwart of the post GFC years but only from classic September-October corrections, which this year did not materialise, even despite the US shutdown. The ASX 200 has broken five year highs, and Wall Street all-time highs. What’s the next impetus?

It certainly isn’t an ECB rate cut. Mario Draghi actually surprised European bourses last night by cutting the ECB cash rate to 0.25% from 0.5% but affected no major response other than to drop the euro 0.7% against the dollar. Draghi insisted the cut was not a bold-faced attempt to weaken the currency, and that rates “will remain at low levels for an extended period of time”. Straight out of the Fed playbook. The eurozone’s backward-sliding inflation rate would have been the major driver. Commentators noted that European money markets were already trading at rates below the previous ECB target before the cut.

The big news on Wall Street last night was the listing of Twitter, which is apparently some sort of messaging service for the self-obsessed. Not wishing to do a “Faceplant”, Twitter set its IPO price at a conservative level and thus managed a 73% jump on debut. It was about the only stock that went up last night.

Especially in the tech sector. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has wobbled this week, even as the Dow has pushed to a new high. Last night the dam broke and the Nasdaq plunged 1.9%. Was everyone selling their techs to buy Twitter? Nasdaq lost out to the NYSE on securing the star listing.

The Dow fell 1% and the S&P 500 split the difference with a 1.3% fall. On Wednesday night the Dow rose 128 points to hit a new high and, mission accomplished, last night fell 152 points. Start of a correction? Unlikely, given nothing much triggered the selling.

The US September quarter GDP came in at 2.8% growth, up from 2.5% in June and well ahead of a 2.3% consensus forecast. The headline number looked pretty good until analysts drilled down and found a rather steep rise in inventories. Inventories are a tricky one, because a rise can either mean increased confidence on the one hand or mistimed over-ordering on the other. Given the consumer spending component of the GDP rose 1.5%, down from 1.8% in June, it might just mean the latter in this case. Yet the big US chains were pretty pleased with a 4.1% rise in sales, year on year, in the October numbers released last night.

Wall Street is arguably now also feeling a little fatigued and wondering where the Santa Rally might come from, particularly given more Congressional argy-bargy is due early next year. Tonight is the delayed October jobs numbers, so perhaps best to take some profits ahead of that.

The US dollar index rose 0.4% to 80.84 on the euro’s fall last night, and despite the implications of lower-for-longer rates in Europe, gold fell US$11.00 to US$1306.10/oz.

Base metals in London moved little, while talks underway in Geneva between Iran and representatives of the West were enough to see some weakness in oil, on the assumption progress will be made regarding concessions on Iran’s nuclear program and Western sanctions. Brent fell US$1.05 to US$104.19/bbl and West Texas fell US55c to US$94.25/bbl.

Spot iron ore fell for once, down US20c to US$136.90/t.

The SPI Overnight fell 30 points or 0.6%.

The RBA will release its December quarter Statement on Monetary Policy today. China will release its trade balance, and tomorrow will provide a monthly data dump. US non-farm payrolls are due tonight.

Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) will be among those holding an AGM today.
 

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