The Short Report

Array
(
    [0] => Array
        (
            [0] => ((WOW))
            [1] => ((MTS))
            [2] => ((MYR))
            [3] => ((UGL))
            [4] => ((FMG))
            [5] => ((WHC))
        )

    [1] => Array
        (
            [0] => WOW
            [1] => MTS
            [2] => MYR
            [3] => UGL
            [4] => FMG
            [5] => WHC
        )

)

This story features WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WOW
The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Guide:

The Short Report draws upon data provided by the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) to highlight significant weekly moves in short positions registered on stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Short positions in exchange-traded funds (ETF) and non-ordinary shares are not included. Short positions below 5% are not included in the table below but may be noted in the accompanying text if deemed significant.

Please take note of the Important Information provided at the end of this report. Percentage amounts in this report refer to percentage of ordinary shares on issue.

Stock codes highlighted in green have seen their short positions reduce in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a lower percentage bracket. Stocks highlighted in red have seen their short positions increase in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a higher percentage bracket. Moves in excess of one percentage point or more are discussed in the Movers & Shakers report below.

Summary:

Please note: ASIC is still revamping its short reporting system, and as such the data currently showing in the ASIC Shorts section of the FNArena website is out of date.

Week ending February 5, 2015.

The ASX200 was into its historic 12-day uninterrupted rally by the end of the week in question and shorting activity was relatively minimal across the bulk of our 5% plus shorted table. The approaching result season would also have had shorters sitting on their hands.

The rally didn't prevent retailers Myer and Metcash increasing their gap at one-two most shorted over third place UGL, which itself saw a reasonable reduction in shorts but not quite enough to move down the table. Atlas Iron is a longstanding 10% plus club member but a reduction means Fortescue Metals is now the most shorted iron ore miner in the market. Whitehaven Coal also enjoyed a reduction after posting a solid earnings result.

Special mention this week should be made of a new addition to the 5% shorted table — just — at 5.0%. Anyone heard of a stock called Woolworths ((WOW))?

Weekly short positions as a percentage of market cap:

10%+

MYR   19.1
MTS    15.1
UGL    11.6
CDD   11.1
SUL    11.1
FMG   10.6
AGO   10.5
NXT    10.1

In: NXT          Out: JBH

9.0-9.9%

KAR, PBG, JBH, ACR, ALQ, COH, KCN

In: JBH                       Out: NXT, MIN, WHC

8.0-8.9%

MIN, SGM, TRS, FLT, SXY, BCI, ASL, PRY

In: MIN, PRY           

7.0-7.9%

WHC, ORI, CAB, MND, VRT, MRM, MGX, JHC, RRL, NWS

In: WHC, MRM, JHC                        Out: PRY, RRL, NWS

6.0-6.9%

MSB, RRL, NWS, DOW, GNC, NWH, CRZ, DSH

In: RRL, NWS, NWH                        Out: MRM, JHC

5.0-5.9%

ILU, ARI, AGF, TPI, TEN, GWA, BDR, VET, SXL, WOW

In: WOW                    Out: NWH, MML, BDR, VET, SXL
 

Movers and Shakers

Wholesaler and IGA supermarket operator Metcash ((MTS)) has long been a 10% plus shorted club member, as traders smell demise given ever encroaching competition from the likes of Aldi and Costco, notwithstanding the company’s longstanding battle against the supermarket duopoly. With no new news or much move in the share price, MTS jumped to second most shorted stock on the ASX the week before, and has now seen a further increase of 1.1ppt to 15.1% from 14.0%.

Metcash seems intent on closing the gap to most shorted stock and fellow retailer Myer ((MYR)), but Myer has added another  0.7ppt to move out to a whopping 19.1% shorted.

Engineer & contractor UGL ((UGL)) remains in third position, but by contrast has seen its shorts fall 2.2ppt to 11.6% from 13.8%, leaving the retailers really out on a limb.

Similarly, Atlas Iron remains in the 10% plus club but has seen a 1.3ppt reduction in shorts to 10.5% from 11.8%, leaving Fortescue Metals ((FMG)) the most favoured of iron ore shorts on 10.6%.

Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) provided an early season earnings report in the week in question, which was well received by the market. The stock’s sharp rally included an element of short-covering, given WHC shorts fell 1.3ppt to 7.9% from 9.2% in the week.
 

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

The above information is sourced from daily reports published by the Australian Investment & Securities Commission (ASIC) and is provided by FNArena unqualified as a service to subscribers. FNArena would like to make it very clear that immediate assumptions cannot be drawn from the numbers alone.

It is wrong to assume that short percentages published by ASIC simply imply negative market positions held by fund managers or others looking to profit from a fall in respective share prices. While all or part of certain short percentages may indeed imply such, there are also a myriad of other reasons why a short position might be held which does not render that position "naked" given offsetting positions held elsewhere. Whatever balance of percentages truly is a "short" position would suggest there are negative views on a stock held by some in the market and also would suggest that were the news flow on that stock to turn suddenly positive, "short covering" may spark a short, sharp rally in that share price. However short positions held as an offset against another position may prove merely benign.

Often large short positions can be attributable to a listed hybrid security on the same stock where traders look to "strip out" the option value of the hybrid with offsetting listed option and stock positions. Short positions may form part of a short stock portfolio offsetting a long share price index (SPI) futures portfolio – a popular trade which seeks to exploit windows of opportunity when the SPI price trades at an overextended discount to fair value. Short positions may be held as a hedge by a broking house providing dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) underwriting services or other similar services. Short positions will occasionally need to be adopted by market makers in listed equity exchange traded fund products (EFT). All of the above are just some of the reasons why a short position may be held in a stock but can be considered benign in share price direction terms due to offsets.

Market makers in stock and stock index options will also hedge their portfolios using short positions where necessary. These delta hedges often form the other side of a client's long stock-long put option protection trade, or perhaps long stock-short call option ("buy-write") position. In a clear example of how published short percentages can be misleading, an options market maker may hold a short position below the implied delta hedge level and that actually implies a "long" position in that stock.

Another popular trading strategy is that of "pairs trading" in which one stock is held short against a long position in another stock. Such positions look to exploit perceived imbalances in the valuations of two stocks and imply a "net neutral" market position.

Aside from all the above reasons as to why it would be a potential misconception to draw simply conclusions on short percentages, there are even wider issues to consider. ASIC itself will admit that short position data is not an exact science given the onus on market participants to declare to their broker when positions truly are "short". Without any suggestion of deceit, there are always participants who are ignorant of the regulations. Discrepancies can also arise when short positions are held by a large investment banking operation offering multiple stock market services as well as proprietary trading activities. Such activity can introduce the possibility of either non-counting or double-counting when custodians are involved and beneficial ownership issues become unclear.

Finally, a simple fact is that the Australian Securities Exchange also keeps its own register of short positions. The figures provided by ASIC and by the ASX at any point do not necessarily correlate.

FNArena has offered this qualified explanation of the vagaries of short stock positions as a warning to subscribers not to jump to any conclusions or to make investment decisions based solely on these unqualified numbers. FNArena strongly suggests investors seek advice from their stock broker or financial adviser before acting upon any of the information provided herein.

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