Next Week At A Glance

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For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

By Greg Peel

Last night the US S&P500 closed above the psychological level of 2000 and the Dow above 17,000, both of which have offered resistance in recent times. As I write, the ASX200 is trading well above the 5200 level which has provided top-of-the-range resistance since the August correction.

This risk therefore is weighted to the upside on a technical basis. However commentators are not yet sure of any level of conviction, other than to largely agree that a rally to year-end, as it so often the case, is still expected.

China is no doubt where the obvious downside potential lays. Next week sees the release of Chinese trade and inflation data.

In the US, market surveys now suggest the majority expect there to be no Fed rate rise in 2015. An alternative may be the Fed announces a January rate rise in December, but March is firming as the most expected option. Meanwhile, the Fed remains “data-dependent”.

It’s Columbus Day in the US on Monday night which is one of those half-holidays which sees US banks and the bond market close but stock and commodity markets remain open. Thereafter, the week brings retail sales, business inventories, the Fed Beige Book, the CPI and PPI, industrial production, consumer sentiment and the Empire State and Philly Fed activity indices.

The influential ZEW investor sentiment index will be released in the eurozone next week, the first since the Volkswagen scandal blew up.

In Australia, next week sees NAB’s monthly business confidence and Westpac’s monthly consumer confidence surveys along with the September jobs numbers that for some reason have been delayed a week.

On the local stock front, next week sees the resource sector quarterly production report season ramp up, with reports due from the likes of Rio Tinto ((RIO)), Fortescue Metals ((FMG)) and Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)), among others.

At the same time, the AGM season steps up the pace with meetings due for Telstra ((TLS)), CSL ((CSL)) and Orora ((ORA)) among others while Lend Lease ((LLC)) will hold an investor day.
 

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