Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 17, 2022

This story features AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AIA

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AIA   AVH (2)   BEN   BPT (2)   CQE (2)   DGL   GPT   HCW   IMD   MLD   NPR   RMD (3)   UBI   XRF  

AIA    AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $6.95

Jarden rates ((AIA)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden forecasts a better passenger recovery for Auckland International Airport in FY23, based on the current forward scheduling data for the peak Spring/Summer season, while passenger recovery assumptions for FY24 and FY25 are largely unchanged. 

The target rises to NZ$6.65 from NZ$6.45.

The broker’s Underweight rating reflects medium-term uncertainty on the timing and pace of volume recovery on top of the weakening consumer backdrop. In addition, the cost of jet fuel remains well above the five-year average price pre-covid.

This report was published on August 15, 2022.

Current Price is $6.95. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $7.50, suggesting upside of 7.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 372.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.02 cents and EPS of 9.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 69.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 66.3.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVH    AVITA MEDICAL INC

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $1.98

Bell Potter rates ((AVH)) as Buy (1) –

Avita Medical reported 2Q22 results with revenues for the quarter coming in 9% above Bell Potter forecasts at US$8.3m, up 22% on the previous year.

The company reported a lower adjusted loss of -US$4.4m, compared to -US$6.6m for the previous quarter, with a half year cash burn of -US$14m.

Bell Potter views the FY22 guidance, which remained unchanged at US$30m, as conservative, given that the second half of the trading year is typically stronger than the first half.

The analyst increases revenue forecasts by 3% for FY22 and points out data from the vitiligo study are due in 4Q22 with approvals for PMA supplements in soft tissue and vitiligo likely towards the end of 2023, post submissions earlier in the year.

The Buy rating and $3 price target are retained.

This report was published on August 12, 2022.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $1.02
If AVH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 102.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.94.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 74.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.66.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((AVH)) as Upgrade to Market Weight from Underweight (3) –

Wilsons notes improvement in the US wound care, burns and surgery markets was beneficial to Avita Medical in the second quarter, supporting a 22% increase in sales of the company's Recell product to US$8.2m, and 10% ahead of Wilsons' expectations.

The broker also noted investors await results from the company's vitiligo trial, and while Wilsons does expect positive results from the trial, it is not yet convinced by the commercial prospects.

The broker notes a material break out of Recell sales from burns, and generation of sales in vitiligo, in the next 12-24 months will be crucial. 

The rating is upgraded to Market Weight from Underweight and the target price increases to $1.74 from $1.27.

This report was published on August 15, 2022.

Target price is $1.74 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If AVH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 199.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 0.99.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 218.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 0.91.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BEN    BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $9.52

Jarden rates ((BEN)) as Underweight (4) –

While Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's FY22 result was a beat on Jarden's expectations, the broker notes this was largely the result of lower quality items.

Following the result release, the broker notes it appears benefits from rising cash rates will emerge over time rather than the faster profit and loss impact that may benefit peers, and that Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's Community Bank revenue share will increase as rates do.

The bank anticipates a 27 basis point net interest margin benefit in FY23, which Jarden notes will be largely offset by higher revenue share payments to Community Bank. The Underweight rating and target price of $9.30 are retained.

This report was published on August 16, 2022.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $9.52 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.77, suggesting upside of 1.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 75.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 77.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.8, implying annual growth of 3.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.59

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BPT)) as Hold (3) –

FY22 net profit fell short of expectations while EBITDA was broadly in line. Canaccord Genuity highlights the -17% fall in 2P reserves to 283mmboe, largely because of Bass Basin revisions.

Beach Energy's FY23 production guidance of 20-22.5mmboe is also slightly below forecasts and the broker lowers its estimate to 22.9mmboe.

The broker lowers the target to $1.81 from $1.91. Hold maintained.

This report was published on August 16, 2022.

Target price is $1.81 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.22
If BPT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.84, suggesting upside of 15.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.6, implying annual growth of 12.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 50.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of 8.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Buy (1) –

Beach Energy has suffered an -11% share price decline following the release of its full year results, but Jarden sees value for investors who can see through weaker guidance for the current year.

The broker noted a net profit miss in the result and production guidance miss for the year ahead appear to have dampened market sentiment, but notes Otway wells startup and Waitsia LNG exports, upcoming drilling of at least six Perth Basin exploration wells, and an expected free cash flow boost driven by higher production and lower capital expenditure, should be seen as positives.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.05 from $2.10.

This report was published on August 15, 2022.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.46
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.84, suggesting upside of 15.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 26.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.6, implying annual growth of 12.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 33.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of 8.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQE    CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT

Childcare – Overnight Price: $3.73

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CQE)) as Hold (3) –

Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT reported FY22 results that were -6% below Canaccord Genuity's forecasts, while revaluations drove assets per share up to $4.08.

FY23 guidance is lower than expected and reflects higher interest costs amid little earnings growth. The broker considers the stock attractively priced when compared to its A-REIT peers.

Still, a lack of distribution growth contributes to a yield spread that is staying near record lows. Hold maintained. Target is reduced to $3.91 from $4.02.

This report was published on August 16, 2022.

Target price is $3.91 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.18
If CQE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.30 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.56.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.70 cents and EPS of 18.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.16.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((CQE)) as Hold (3) –

Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT reported FY22 earnings in-line with Moelis' expectations with a 17.2c dividend.

The group provided FY23 dividend guidance of 17.2c per share with a rising cost of debt and a 3.5% increase in rents across 25% of the portfolio, in line with the CPI rent reviews.

The broker notes around 50% of the total debt is hedged until June 2024 and 25% of this debt is based on interest rate swaps while the 15% balance is capped at 3%.

The $3.74 price target and Hold rating are retained.

This report was published on August 15, 2022.

Target price is $3.74 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.01
If CQE meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.20 cents and EPS of 17.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.07.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.90 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.38.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DGL    DGL GROUP LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies – Overnight Price: $2.67

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DGL)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity remains positive about the growth opportunities for DGL Group, which has upgraded earnings three times since the May 2021 IPO, and the share price has risen 162%.

The broker looks to the indications from the agriculture markets, where the company derived some 34% of 1H22 earnings to offer some indications for the earnings outlook.

DGL Group guided to FY22 earnings of $65 in EBITDA, which are broadly in line with the broker's forecasts and includes some contribution from recent acquisitions with higher contributions expected in FY23.

Canaccord Genuity continues to like the growth runway for the company and has a Buy rating. The target price is lowered to $4.20 from $4.45.

This report was published on August 15, 2022.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $1.53
If DGL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.27.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.80.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GPT    GPT GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.41

Jarden rates ((GPT)) as Underweight (4) –

While GPT Group delivered a better than expected first half, Jarden anticipates significant pressure for the company in the second half of the year and into FY23 with the company's cost of debt set to more than double.

The broker details GPT Group intends to increase its hedging profile to 71% for the next two and a half years, with an all-in hedge cost of 4.5-4.6%, which Jarden notes is close the floating rate debt implied by the Bank Bill Swap rate forward curve. 

Jarden expects this will see GPT Group take a -7% hit to funds from operations in FY23, before returning to a normalised growth rate from FY24 when other REITs will continue to deal with rising levels of debt. 

The Underweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.65 from $5.00.

This report was published on August 15, 2022.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $4.41 Difference: $0.24
If GPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 6.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 25.80 cents and EPS of 32.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of -56.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.90 cents and EPS of 30.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of -2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HCW    HEALTHCO HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.78

Goldman Sachs rates ((HCW)) as Buy (1) –

HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT reported FY22 earnings in line with Goldman Sachs' expectations, alongside a 7.5c dividend.

The broker notes the result was "solid" and the group achieved 100% rent collection and 99% occupancy.

Management guided for a 7.5c FY23 dividend, which is flat on FY22 and in line with consensus, however the broker points to ongoing market concerns over the sustainability of the payout which exceeds the funds from operations.

HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT is trading at an -18% discount to the upgraded NTA of $2.01 and has announced an on-market-buy-back of up to 10%, supported by a robust net cash position of $430m.

A Buy rating and $2.20 price target are maintained.

This report was published on August 12, 2022.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: $0.42
If HCW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting upside of 9.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of -54.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.9, implying annual growth of 14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IMD    IMDEX LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.93

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IMD)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Canaccord Genuity found the FY22 results mixed and considers the quality mediocre, with cash conversion a clear miss. Revenue and gross margins were slightly below estimates.

Imdex provided no specific guidance but signalled demand was strong and it remains comfortable with FY23 consensus estimates. The results were also accompanied by the first commercial contract for the Blast Dog technology.

The broker notes the stock is now cheaper than it has been since May 2020, and the company will add another technical layer to earnings as it rolls out Blast Dog. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target reduced to $2.53 from $2.74.

This report was published on August 16, 2022.

Target price is $2.53 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.6
If IMD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.60 cents and EPS of 12.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.82.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.80 cents and EPS of 12.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.96.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MLD    MACA LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.00

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MLD)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Canaccord Genuity suggests FY22 results for MACA on August 22 may be of secondary importance, considering a recent takeover offer from Thiess Group Investments valuing the company at $1.025/share.

As the deal looks likely to proceed with board support, the broker lowers its rating to Hold from Buy, and reduces its target to $1.025 from $1.06, based on the offer price.

This report was published on August 15, 2022.

Target price is $1.02 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.025
If MLD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 10.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.52.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 12.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.75.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NPR    NEWMARK PROPERTY REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.63

Moelis rates ((NPR)) as Buy (1) –

Newmark Property REIT reported FY22 funds from operations (FFO) of 4.9cpu since the initial public offering, with a distribution of 5.5cpu. Both the FFO metric and the dividend were in line with prospectus forecasts. 

The REIT has provided FY23 dividend guidance for 8.9-9.1cpu, which includes 5.0cpu in the 1H of FY23, implying a 3.9-4.1cpu payment in the 2H.

Moelis incorporates higher interest rates into forecasts and the target price falls to $1.85 from $1.90, while the Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on August 15, 2022.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.63 Difference: $0.22
If NPR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.91.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.91.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMD    RESMED INC

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $33.90

Goldman Sachs rates ((RMD)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs' first take on 4Q22 earnings results for ResMed are a beat by 4% and sales are in line.

The broker highlighted an improvement in gross margins of some 50bs with higher average selling prices and product mix changes, offsetting higher freight and manufacturing costs.

ResMed provided an estimate for the sales pick up from the Philips recall of some US$220-$260m but did not offer any guidance for FY23.

Goldman Sachs links the near term share price performance directly to the company's ability to capture sales and market share from Philips, although the analyst did view the strong performance of the Card-to-Cloud device as relieving the communication chip shortage.

Buy rating and $34.40 target price are retained.

This report was published on August 12, 2022.

Target price is $34.40 Current Price is $33.90 Difference: $0.5
If RMD meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $36.66, suggesting upside of 8.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 95.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 104.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.5, implying annual growth of 16.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((RMD)) as Overweight (2) –

Following 4Q/FY22 results for ResMed, Jarden expects ongoing revenue momentum from improving semiconductor supply and the successful Airsense 10 "Card-to-Cloud" workaround. 

The broker also forecasts margins should start to improve as a result of average selling price increases on July 1, manufacturing efficiencies and moderating freight costs.

Management expects competitor Philips will remain out of the new-patient market for another 12 months, which will allow ongoing, and potentially permanent, market share gains. 

The target falls to $34.83 from $35.47 and the Overweight rating is unchanged.

This report was published on August 15, 2022.

Target price is $34.83 Current Price is $33.90 Difference: $0.93
If RMD meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $36.66, suggesting upside of 8.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 244.61 cents and EPS of 956.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 266.85 cents and EPS of 1092.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.5, implying annual growth of 16.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((RMD)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

Following ResMed's fourth quarter results release, Wilsons is confident the company's Card-to-Cloud device rollout can be accelerated sufficiently to take advantage of the opportunity left by competitor Philips' ongoing recall issues.

The broker notes Philips now faces US Department of Justice action that could further delay efforts to recover losses, but anticipates ResMed could gain US$285m of the US$600m gap left by Philips in the coming year.

The broker lifts revenue forecasts 6% in FY23 and FY24. The rating is upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight and the target price increases to $38.75 from $30.71.

This report was published on August 15, 2022.

Target price is $38.75 Current Price is $33.90 Difference: $4.85
If RMD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $36.66, suggesting upside of 8.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.04 cents and EPS of 91.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.60 cents and EPS of 106.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.5, implying annual growth of 16.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBI    UNIVERSAL BIOSENSORS INC

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.28

Bell Potter rates ((UBI)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Bell Potter incorporates Universal Biosensers' $20m entitlement offer proceeds and associated increase in shares on issue into current forecasts, which lowers the overall valuation. 

Also, the broker's valuation is impacted by 1H results showing a -9.1% fall in revenue compared to previous corresponding period due to delayed timing for Siemens orders, as well as Siemens running existing stock levels down to zero.

The total 1H loss rose by -186%, driven mostly by an R&D spending increase and lower revenues due to the transition away from distribution by Siemens. The target price falls to $0.60 from $1.15, while the Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on August 15, 2022.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.32
If UBI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 114% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.71.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.37.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XRF    XRF SCIENTIFIC LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.63

Canaccord Genuity rates ((XRF)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

XRF Scientific reports FY22 results on August 23. Canaccord Genuity incorporates stronger margins into forecasts on the back of a recent trading update, and rolls forward its valuation model to arrive at a $0.71 target, up from $0.65.

The trading update alluded to potential margin upside in the 2H, and expectation for another strong trading period in the June quarter, points out the analyst. The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on August 16, 2022.

Target price is $0.71 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.08
If XRF meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.65.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.32.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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