Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Dec 09, 2022

This story features CHRYSOS CORP. LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: C79

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

C79   GPT   HLA   IGO   IMU   MAP   MTS   ORI   PMV   PNV   PPG   PXA   RWC   TPW (2)   WDS  

C79    CHRYSOS CORP. LIMITED

Overnight Price: $3.14

Shaw and Partners rates ((C79)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners initiates coverage on Chrysos. According to the broker Chrysos' proprietary PhotonAssay represents a technological leap which is transforming the gold assaying business, with the company reporting rapid uptake to date.

The company has 49 units under contract for deployment by 2025, which equates to 8% of the total addressable market. The company's revenue base underpins Shaw and Partners' 87% compound annual growth rate assumption to FY25.

The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $5.40.

This report was published on December 6, 2022.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: $2.26
If C79 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 73.02.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 174.44.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GPT    GPT GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.33

Jarden rates ((GPT)) as Underweight (4) –

In the lead up to February results, Jarden reiterates its Underweight rating for GPT Group on concern consensus forecasts are too high. It’s felt the company has few ways to offset the material headwind from higher interest rates. 

The target rises to $4.55 from $4.40 on higher funds management income and a roll forward of the broker’s financial model. The higher target reflects rental growth in Logistics and Retail, partially offset by lower values in Office. 

A lack of funds from operations (FFO) growth over the next 4-5 years suggests current multiples are unattractive, explains Jarden. A high level of maintenance and incentive capex is also expected to weigh.

This report was published on December 1, 2022.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $4.33 Difference: $0.22
If GPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.70, suggesting upside of 8.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 25.80 cents and EPS of 32.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of -56.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.70 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of -1.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLA    HEALTHIA LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $1.08

Shaw and Partners rates ((HLA)) as Buy (1) –

Having guided to annualised earnings above $40m at the beginning of the fiscal year, Healthia reports underlying earnings of $13.4m for the five months to the end of November. According to Shaw and Partners this reflects a deceleration from the end of August which the broker attributes to a slower October and covid impacts. 

Erring on the side on conservatism, Shaw and Partners lowers its full year underlying earnings assumptions to $37.6m from $40.1m, anticipating a return to more normalised trading conditions in the second half. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.50 from $2.64.

This report was published on December 5, 2022.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $1.42
If HLA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.80 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.13.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.10 cents and EPS of 10.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.49.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $14.89

Jarden rates ((IGO)) as Overweight (2) –

A fire at IGO's Nova project looks to impact on processing for at least four weeks. Despite the company's nickel business accounting for just 20%, Jarden notes Nova remains a high margin asset. 

As such, the broker estimates the outage could equate to an earnings per share loss of more than -6 cents in the current fiscal year, and driven a -4 cent downgrade to the broker's valuation. Jarden assumes a resumption of operations in February.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $16.55 from $16.59.

This report was published on December 6, 2022.

Target price is $16.55 Current Price is $14.89 Difference: $1.66
If IGO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.11, suggesting upside of 1.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 177.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 197.4, implying annual growth of 351.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 216.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 179.1, implying annual growth of -9.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IMU    IMUGENE LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.18

Bell Potter rates ((IMU)) as Buy (1) –

Imugene has completed three significant preclinical studies to progress development of its onCARlytics technology in combination with CD19 CAR-T assets, with studies aimed at harnessing the success of CAR-T therapy to treat solid cancers. 

Bell Potter finds the data to present a compelling case to support further investigation of various combinations. The broker expects the company may seek to meet with the FDA in the coming year to discuss clinical advancement of these programs. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.35 from $0.36.

This report was published on December 2, 2022.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.165
If IMU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.83.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.83.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAP    MICROBA LIFE SCIENCES LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.33

Bell Potter rates ((MAP)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Microba Life Sciences has entered into a distribution partnership with Sonic Healthcare ((SHL)), with the latter investing $17.8m in Microbafor a 19.99% equity stake. Bell Potter notes Sonic is seeking to acquire further further unlisted options, potentially equating to a further 5.0% stake.

Bell Potter expects the agreement to drive an increase in gut testing volumes, with Microba's tests being added to Sonic's standard pathology menu. In turn, this increases the broker's revenue assumptions from FY24. 

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target price increases to $0.40 from $0.34.

This report was published on December 6, 2022.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.075
If MAP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.56.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.03.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS    METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $4.25

Jarden rates ((MTS)) as Overweight (2) –

Metcash has reported 10% underlying earnings growth in its first half, a 6% beat to consensus forecasts. Jarden predicts the company can deliver another record result in the second half as independents continue to take market share, with Jarden reporting sales for its food segment are up 9.5% in the first four weeks on the half. 

The broker highlights cash flow in the period was a miss to estimates given product mix, inflation and payment terms. Jarden reduces its earnings per share forecasts -2-4% through to FY26, accounting for higher net interest rates. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.40 from $4.20. 

This report was published on December 6, 2022.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.25 Difference: $0.15
If MTS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting upside of 8.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.50 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of 24.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 32.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.3, implying annual growth of -2.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORI    ORICA LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $15.01

Jarden rates ((ORI)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (2) –

Jarden initiates coverage on Orica, finding the company well positioned to benefit from tight global ammonium nitrate supply, strong cyclical commodities demand and an uptick in thermal coal markets. 

The broker expects these global market drivers to provide Orica stronger re-contracting pricing power.

The broker's core earnings forecasts are 3% ahead of consensus between FY23 and FY24, but -2% below from FY25. The broker would like to see the company de-risk through increased contract tenure. 

The broker initiates with an Overweight rating and target price of $16.85. 

This report was published on December 5, 2022.

Target price is $16.85 Current Price is $15.01 Difference: $1.84
If ORI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.18, suggesting upside of 7.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 41.60 cents and EPS of 82.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.5, implying annual growth of 111.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 46.50 cents and EPS of 92.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.2, implying annual growth of 17.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMV    PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $24.76

Jarden rates ((PMV)) as Overweight (2) –

Premier Investments delivered a stronger than anticipated update, increasing Jarden's confidence moving into the Christmas period. The company reported sales growth of 23.6% in the first half to date, with the broker's estimate implying a -6% decline over the remainder of the period which it now sees as conservative.

Sales growth was flat over November, which the broker found a strong outcome as the company cycled reopenings in the previous comparable period. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $25.30 from $24.20.

This report was published on December 5, 2022.

Target price is $25.30 Current Price is $24.76 Difference: $0.54
If PMV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.89, suggesting upside of 4.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 98.00 cents and EPS of 182.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 144.6, implying annual growth of -19.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 100.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 91.00 cents and EPS of 166.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.8, implying annual growth of -0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNV    POLYNOVO LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $1.94

Bell Potter rates ((PNV)) as Buy (1) –

According to Bell Potter, PolyNovo's recent $30m placement has not only significantly strengthened its balance sheet, but provides a growth platform for accelerated expansion of its sales teams as it targets key markets in Asia and Canada, with the company intending to hire thirty new staff in the fiscal year. 

During the first half, the company launched products in Hong Kong and India, while entry to China and Japan is planned through a distributor model. With a strengthened balance sheet reducing financial risk, Bell Potter expects PolyNovo to be profitable from FY24.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.30 from $1.90.

This report was published on December 2, 2022.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.365
If PNV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 322.50.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 138.21.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPG    PRO-PAC PACKAGING LIMITED

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $0.34

Moelis rates ((PPG)) as Buy (1) –

Following a challenging fiscal year for Pro-Pac Packaging, the company has reported continuing margin improvement in its first quarter. According to Moelis the company has seen an improvement in operating conditions, and management expects a return to positive earnings during the first half.

The broker considers the appointment of a new CEO and CFO as positives, with both bringing significant experience across packaging and industrial businesses. 

Following a period of restrictions Moelis reinstates a Buy rating and a target price of $0.41.

This report was published on December 6, 2022.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.07
If PPG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.60.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.40 cents and EPS of 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.91.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PXA    PEXA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $13.70

Jarden rates ((PXA)) as Underweight (4) –

The current property market outlook underpins Jarden's rating on Pexa Group, and presents risks to consensus earnings according to the broker. New South Wales and Queensland settlement activity fell -16% on the previous comparable period in November, a slightly steeper decline than the -15% reported in October.

Volumes in these regions are down -13% year-to-date, and Jarden is anticipating a -17% volume decline over the full fiscal year.

The Underweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $12.70 from $12.35.

This report was published on December 5, 2022.

Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $13.70 Difference: minus $1 (current price is over target).
If PXA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.75, suggesting upside of 29.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 30.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.7, implying annual growth of 173.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.8, implying annual growth of 9.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWC    RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $2.96

Jarden rates ((RWC)) as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) –

As global plumbing goods supplier Reliance Worldwide will be reliant upon new home starts and remodeling activity, Jarden initiates coverage with a Neutral rating. Boral ((BLD)) and CSR ((CSR)) are preferred exposures in the space.

The broker expects a growing decline in existing home sales will lead to reduced repair and remodeling (R&R) activity in the US, UK and Australia. 

Revenue growth could be flat between FY23 and FY25 due to the housing down cycle, according to the analyst, as well as challenges in gaining market share and shelf space for the company's mature products. 

Jarden regards an easing of raw material input costs and interest rate cuts as key upside risks. A target price of $3.40 is set.

This report was published on December 1, 2022.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: $0.44
If RWC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 29.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.19 cents and EPS of 24.65 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.32 cents and EPS of 20.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 3.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPW    TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $4.56

Bell Potter rates ((TPW)) as Hold (3) –

While Temple & Webster's trading update has revenue down -14% year-on-year over the first months. Bell Potter highlights November was slightly ahead of last year as the company began to cycle easier comparables on the other side of lockdowns in the previous year.  

The update has seen Bell Potter reduce its near-term earnings forecasts, now assuming first half revenue declines -11% on the year but grow 11% year on year in the second half. 

The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.90 from $6.00.

This report was published on December 2, 2022.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: $1.34
If TPW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 17.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 76.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of -36.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 72.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 41.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((TPW)) as Neutral (3) –

Revenue for Temple & Webster had been down by -21% in July and then by -17% in the first two weeks of August.

Thus, the announced year-on-year decline of -14% for the period up to 27 November from July 1 is an improvement, and tracking in line with Jarden’s 1H forecast.

A mix-shift to higher margin categories, along with an increase in conversion and average order value, partially offset a decline in the number of active customers, explains the analyst. 

The broker’s target rises to $5.47 from $5.06 on higher longer-term earnings forecasts. A Neutral rating is maintained on valuation concerns. 

Jarden remains positive on the long-term growth story.

This report was published on December 1, 2022.

Target price is $5.47 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: $0.91
If TPW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 17.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of -36.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 72.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 41.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS    WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $34.45

Jarden rates ((WDS)) as Neutral (3) –

Following an investor briefing day, Jarden raises its target for Woodside Energy to $33.70 from $33.00 due to lower management forecasts for capex and higher production estimates over 2025-27. 

These positives are partially offset by an increase in the broker’s weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumption and a lower gas price forecast.

The analyst sees downside risk to consensus cash flows and dividends, given the company’s strict capital allocation policy and conservative approach to its balance sheet.

The payout ratio is expected to remain at 80% for the final 2022 dividend but then decline to 70-75% through 2023 and 2024, explains Jarden. Neutral.

This report was published on December 2, 2022.

Target price is $33.70 Current Price is $34.45 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $37.69, suggesting upside of 9.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 359.75 cents and EPS of 495.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 390.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 260.86 cents and EPS of 376.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 431.0, implying annual growth of -22.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 303.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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