Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 22, 2023

This story features AUDINATE GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AD8

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AD8 (2)   APX   AZJ   BC8   BPT (3)   CAR (2)   CCX   CLW   CSL   CSX   EDV   ELD   FBU (2)   IAG   IMD (2)   IPG   JBH (2)   LIC (3)   MGH   MGR   MP1   NWS   PFP (2)   PGL   REA   SGR   TRJ   VIT   VUL  

AD8    AUDINATE GROUP LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $8.10

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AD8)) as Buy (1) –

Audinate Group's 1H revenue growth outstripped forecasts by Canaccord Genuity and consensus, and is now on-track to exceed FY23 guidance.

While the gross profit margin of 71% dipped below the historical average of 75%, and should remain depressed in the 2H, management expects a return to the average (and above) on higher growth in software revenue in FY24 and beyond.

The sales backlog remains at record levels, which suggests to the analyst no issue regarding demand for Dante products. Unit growth is expected to return to historical trends as chip supply and product workarounds normalise.

The broker's $11 target and Buy rating are unchanged.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $8.10 Difference: $2.9
If AD8 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.12, suggesting upside of 24.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 202.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 270.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 352.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Shaw and Partners rates ((AD8)) as Buy (1) –

Earnings for Audinate Group in the 1H were largely in line with Shaw and Partners' above-consensus forecasts for US dollar sales and earnings, while Australian dollar sales were a beat.

The broker sees a very attractive outlook on the global post-covid re-opening trade and the entrenchment of Dante as the global audio visual default standard. The stock is considered a very attractive holding for long-term rewards.

The analyst notes a positive outlook for FY23 based on a number of factors including a ramp–up in video revenues and an order backlog that is currently at record highs.

The $11.75 target and Buy rating are unchanged.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $11.75 Current Price is $8.10 Difference: $3.65
If AD8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.12, suggesting upside of 24.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 578.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 218.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 352.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APX    APPEN LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $2.75

Bell Potter rates ((APX)) as Hold (3) –

Appen's FY22 trading update suggested revenues for the full year would come in above Bell Potter's forecast by 2%, at the top end of management's guidance, but EBITDA is expected at the lower end of guidance.

The company also announced a -US$204m non-cash impairment charge (no impact on the earnings), in writing off goodwill and intangibles in the "New Markets Division".

There is no suggestion post a review of an impairment charge to the "Global Services Division". The Hold rating and $3 target are unchanged and no dividend payments are forecast for FY22 or FY23.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $0.25
If APX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting downside of -8.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 19.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 687.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ    AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $3.44

Jarden rates ((AZJ)) as Neutral (3) –

Following a large earnings miss within 1H results, Jarden lowers its FY23 core EPS forecast for Aurizon Holdings by -18% on lower Coal and Network forecasts.

After the broker lowers earnings forecasts for a lower long-term Coal margin and increasing capex assumptions, the target falls to $3.55 from $3.95. 

The Neutral rating is unchanged.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.11
If AZJ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 13.1%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of -20.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 23.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BC8    BLACK CAT SYNDICATE LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.36

Shaw and Partners rates ((BC8)) as Buy (1) –

Following the release of a 73% resource upgrade at the Paulsens Gold operations, Black Cat Syndicate now has two of the highest-grade gold deposits in Australia, according to Shaw and Partners. Last month the resource at the Coyote deposit was also upgraded.

The company has a third gold development project at Kalgoorlie East, and the three projects provide a runway to around 150kozpa of gold production, suggests the analyst.

The 77cent target and Buy rating are unchanged.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $0.77 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.405
If BC8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.30.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.90.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.43

Bell Potter rates ((BPT)) as Buy (1) –

Beach Energy reported an in-line 1H23 result, according to Bell Potter, however management lowered production guidance by -7% and raised expected costs by 14%, due to Waitsia stage 2 for FY23.

The company announced a new dividend policy and gearing targets of less than 15% and franked dividends to be 40-50% of "pre-growth free cash flow", i.e. before the lift in free cash flow from the completion of Waitsia Stage 2 and Otways.

Bell Potter's FY23 forecast remains the same and FY24 is raised 4%; the dividend forecasts are adjusted accordingly.

Buy rating unchanged and the target lowered to $2.21 from $2.25.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $2.21 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.78
If BPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 32.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of -19.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.2, implying annual growth of 31.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Canaccord Genuity rates ((BPT)) as Hold (3) –

Beach Energy's 1H earnings (EBITDAX) of $491 missed forecasts by Canaccord Genuity and consensus for $518m and $530m, respectively, as operating cost inflation weighed, despite a lower level of production.

A doubling of the interim dividend to 2cps cushioned the weaker overall result, suggests the analyst, as did a lift in the intended payout ratio by management to 40-50% of pre-growth free cash flow.

The company lowered FY23 production guidance and increased its opex guidance, while capex is heading to the upper-end of guidance, notes the broker. This changed view on capex follows an agreement with Italy-based Webuild to complete delivery of the Waitsia gas project.

The Hold rating remains and the target slips to $1.63 from $1.75.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $1.63 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.2
If BPT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 32.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 20.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of -19.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 25.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.2, implying annual growth of 31.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Overweight (2) –

Downgraded FY23 production guidance at 1H results by management at Beach Energy aligned with Jarden's existing forecast and was broadly in line with the consensus expectation.

The broker expects consensus will need to upgrade its DPS forecasts to allow for management's new capital management policy which targets a dividend jump from FY24.

The analyst increases capex forecasts for FY24 and FY25 with a a commensurate increase in production from its Cooper Basin joint venture and Western Flank.

The target falls to $1.80 from $1.85. Overweight.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.37
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 32.3%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of -19.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.2, implying annual growth of 31.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAR    CARSALES.COM LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $22.71

Goldman Sachs rates ((CAR)) as Neutral (3) –

Carsales reported results in-line with Goldman Sachs' forecasts.

Management highlighted 'resilience' in the domestic automotive market. although the analyst is anticipating a slowdown in revenue growth over the 2H23 to 9% from 17%.

Talk of Carsales purchasing the 70% of WebMotors it doesn't own may be overdone, the analyst suggests, with the current shareholder Santander an unwilling seller, however it is noted the asset would be valued around $570m to $890m.

Goldman Sachs adjusts EPS forecasts by -3% for both FY23 and FY24. Neutral rating unchanged and slight rise in the target price to $23 from $22.20.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $22.71 Difference: $0.29
If CAR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.92, suggesting upside of 9.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.1, implying annual growth of 33.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 87.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.4, implying annual growth of 13.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((CAR)) as Underweight (4) –

On a pro forma basis, 1H results for Carsales were a beat against Jarden's forecasts due to strength in Australian private advertising and the Trader Interactive outlook.

Higher yields slightly lifted online advertising revenue in Australia, while Trader Interactive experienced revenue growth from new products, price rises and the introduction of dynamic pricing in recreational vehicles (RV), explains the analyst.

The broker's new target is $20.90, down from $21.50. Underweight.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $20.90 Current Price is $22.71 Difference: minus $1.81 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $24.92, suggesting upside of 9.7%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.1, implying annual growth of 33.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.4, implying annual growth of 13.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCX    CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $0.60

Bell Potter rates ((CCX)) as Hold (3) –

Bell Potter recommences coverage of City Chic Collective with a transfer of analyst, a Hold rating and 64c price target.

The broker notes the earnings preview for 1H23 has revenues down -8% on the previous year and management guiding to an EBITDA loss of $2.4-$4m which is better than Bell Potter's -$3.2m loss forecast.

Of note, the company has some work ahead to reach the inventory target of $125m-$135m for FY23 with 1H23 inventory indicated at $163m-$164m.

Hold rating and 64c target unchanged.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $0.64 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.04
If CCX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting upside of 11.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.60 cents and EPS of 2.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLW    CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $4.56

Jarden rates ((CLW)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden believes Charter Hall Long WALE REIT will struggle to find earnings growth over the next 3 to 4 years despite strong top-line growth and ongoing asset recycling.

Given a 6.2% dividend yield on FY23 the shares do not appear expensive but with higher gearing and pressure on earnings the broker envisages better value elsewhere in the sector. Underweight rating and $4.60 target maintained.

This report was published on February 13, 2023.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: $0.04
If CLW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting upside of 3.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.30 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of -79.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 29.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.7, implying annual growth of 2.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $298.44

Wilsons rates ((CSL)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons maintains its Overweight rating and $345 target for CSL following 1H results that beat the broker's expectation for profit (NPATA) by 8%, though management retained FY23 guidance.

Almost as if the pandemic were a mirage, the broker points out how the volume outlook for the immunoglobulin industry has reconnected with pre-covid organic demand. It's felt CSL is emerging with profitability advantages compared to key competitors.

These advantages pertain to mix and gross margin, which may help achieve further market share gains, according to the analyst.

Along with market share gains, Wilsons sees further potential catalysts from restored gross margins, competitive developments in the FcRn space and the commercial debut for Hemgenix.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $345.00 Current Price is $298.44 Difference: $46.56
If CSL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $335.99, suggesting upside of 12.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 338.10 cents and EPS of 765.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 802.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 371.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 404.57 cents and EPS of 802.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1016.9, implying annual growth of 26.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 480.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSX    CLEANSPACE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.51

Wilsons rates ((CSX)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons considers the national group purchasing agreements with Premier and another Group Purchasing Organisation for CleanSpace.

The agreements allow for pre-specified pricing on HALO respirators for hospitals/healthcare specialists and is viewed as positive for the company by providing an alternatives to N95 and other respirators.

1H23 results are due on February 20, although 1H23 unaudited revenues missed Wilsons' expectations by -20% and EBITDA met forecasts.

A Market Weighting and 71c target are retained.

This report was published on February 10, 2023.

Target price is $0.71 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.2
If CSX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.79.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.43.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EDV    ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $6.69

Jarden rates ((EDV)) as Underweight (4) –

Endeavour Group's 1H results revealed an earnings (EBIT) beat of 8% compared to the consensus forecast, with both Hotels and Retail outperforming.

Retail benefited from lower costs and a better gross margin, due to both premiumisation and the increased penetration of Pinnacle Drinks, explains the analyst.

However, the broker sees an outlook of greater discounting/price risk and a shift from out-of-home spending to in-home spending, which would impact the Hotels division.

The Underweight rating is unchanged, while the target rises to $6.70 from $6.60.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $6.69 Difference: $0.01
If EDV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.85, suggesting upside of 2.4%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of 12.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 2.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELD    ELDERS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $8.87

Bell Potter rates ((ELD)) as Hold (3) –

Bell Potter expects Elders is facing more headwinds than tailwinds, with a number of indicators suggesting a downward normalisation of activity over the first half. 

In livestock, the broker is estimating the value of turnoff has declined -13% year-on-year for cattle in the second quarter, and -4% year-on-year in the first quarter, while for sheep and lamb it estimates an increase of 8% year-on-year in the second quarter but a -10% year-on-year decline in the first quarter.

Further, fertiliser forward rates have continued to soften urea and di-ammonium phosphate down -40% and -19% respectively in the current fiscal year. Bell Potter makes only modest changes to its full year net profit forecast, and the Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $9.40 from $10.75.

This report was published on February 13, 2023.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $8.87 Difference: $0.53
If ELD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.37, suggesting upside of 39.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 78.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.6, implying annual growth of -14.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 68.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.0, implying annual growth of 0.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FBU    FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $4.39

Goldman Sachs rates ((FBU)) as Buy (1) –

Fletcher Building pre-announced 1H23 results were -6% and -4% below Goldman Sachs' forecasts and consensus, while EBIT was a -13% miss according to the broker.

Management continued to highlight weakness in the residential construction business on the back of slowing New Zealand house sales.

Goldman Sachs adjusts earnings forecasts for the updated lower guidance from management, with EBIT estimates down -4% for FY23 and -5% for FY24.

The target is lowered to $5.75 from $6.10 and a Buy rating is retained.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $4.39 Difference: $1.36
If FBU meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 10.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 29.17 cents and EPS of 45.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.64 cents and EPS of 49.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.0, implying annual growth of -12.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((FBU)) as Buy (1) –

Pre-released 1H earnings (EBIT) of NZ$360m for Fletcher Building were -NZ$28m shy of Jarden's forecast.

FY23 guidance was also reduced to a range of NZ$800m-NZ$855m from circa NZ$855m, due to January's adverse weather impacts in New Zealand. The broker's Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to NZ$6.53 from NZ$6.62.

In research issued two days later, following actual 1H results, Jarden lowered its target further to NZ$6.50.

Margins expanded across the business except for housing, which the broker had anticipated.

Management expects Material and distribution volumes to be down -10-15% in FY24 compared to the 1H of FY23.

This report was published on February 16, 2023.

Current Price is $4.39. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 10.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 36.47 cents and EPS of 54.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.17 cents and EPS of 45.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.0, implying annual growth of -12.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $4.81

Jarden rates ((IAG)) as Overweight (2) –

While 1H results were largely pre-announced, Jarden is now more certain Insurance Australia Group can meet its underlying insurance trading ratio (ITR) guidance of around 15.5% for the 2H.

The chances of attaining this ratio are boosted by the expectation for accelerating premium rate rises across Home and Motor insurance as inflation eases, explains the analyst.

The Overweight rating and $5.45 target are retained.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $0.64
If IAG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 8.7%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 78.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.8, implying annual growth of 42.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IMD    IMDEX LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $2.51

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IMD)) as Buy (1) –

There were few surprises for Canaccord Genuity contained within 1H results for Imdex, given unaudited headline earnings were announced just less than a month ago.

Gross margins of 69.4% were stable and in line with the broker's forecast, while earnings (EBITDA) margins expanded mostly as a result of the Asia/Pacific and Africa/Europe regions.

No guidance was provided by management and outlook commentary was limited, notes the analyst. A January rise of 2% on the previous corresponding period for tools on hire was less than expected.

The Buy rating and $2.93 target are unchanged.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $2.93 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $0.42
If IMD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 13.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 13.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 27.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of 8.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((IMD)) as Overweight (2) –

Following 1H results for Imdex (headline figures had been previously released), Jarden raises its FY23 EPS forecast by 2% on lower capex assumptions and lifts its target to $2.69 from $2.56.

Management noted average sensors on hire increased by 2% in January compared to the previous corresponding period, and pointed to an even more positive outlook, when measured on a like-for-like basis.

The broker keeps an Overweight rating after weighing market forecasts for a fall in global exploration spend against the company's full order book and management's expectation for maintenance of current activity levels.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $2.69 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $0.18
If IMD meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 13.9%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 27.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of 8.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPG    IPD GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $2.82

Bell Potter rates ((IPG)) as Buy (1) –

According to Bell Potter, it appears likely IPD Group will implement a further round of high single digit list price increases in the third quarter. The broker expects price increases to take four to eight weeks to take effect with customers. 

While appearing significant, the broker feels price increases are broadly consistent with rates of component inflation. Bell Potter's analysis suggests the domestic electrical product supply industry has passed on average list increases 12% in the current fiscal year to date, and 11% in the last fiscal year. 

The Buy rating and target price of $3.35 are retained.

This report was published on February 13, 2023.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.82 Difference: $0.53
If IPG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.49.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.40 cents and EPS of 18.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.08.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH    JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $45.87

Goldman Sachs rates ((JBH)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs considers JB Hi-Fi reported 1H23 earnings broadly in line with forecasts and pre-announced results in January.

The analyst points to the weaker sales growth in January with JBH Australia like-for-like sales down to 1.5% from 7.3% and The Good Guys showing no growth from 7.3%, while New Zealand improved.

Earnings forecasts at the EBIT level are shifted by -1.3% and -0.5% for FY23 and FY24. Sell rating unchanged and the target is revised to $40.70 from $40.30.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $40.70 Current Price is $45.87 Difference: minus $5.17 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $46.28, suggesting upside of 0.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 351.00 cents and EPS of 412.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 449.2, implying annual growth of -6.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 293.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 193.00 cents and EPS of 296.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 342.9, implying annual growth of -23.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 223.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((JBH)) as Underweight (4) –

While most metrics around 1H results were pre-released, a softer-than-expected trading update was provided by management, notes Jarden.

The broker points out recent tailwinds are unwinding, with a weaker housing market expected in the 2H, along with a return of promotional intensity (across audio visual and information technology) and more competitive (lower) pricing.

The target falls to $39.00 from $40.60. Underweight.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $45.87 Difference: minus $6.87 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $46.28, suggesting upside of 0.9%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 449.2, implying annual growth of -6.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 293.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 342.9, implying annual growth of -23.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 223.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LIC    LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $17.01

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LIC)) as Hold (3) –

First half settlements for Lifestyle Communities were softer than expected, yet sales rates were strong, suggesting to Canaccord Genuity demand remains robust.

The analyst sees positive momentum into the 2H given settlements were stronger towards the end of the year, while a lower number of new home settlements is considered a timing issue.

Management maintained FY23 guidance for circa 400 settlements and 1,400-1,700 for new home settlements in the period FY23-25.

The analyst lowers the target to $18.00 from $18.80 after making some model adjustments largely due to altered debt assumptions. Hold. 

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $17.01 Difference: $0.99
If LIC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 61.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.57.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 95.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.79.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Goldman Sachs rates ((LIC)) as Buy (1) –

Despite Lifestyle Communities reporting a -10% fall in resale volumes in the 1H23, the group managed a beat on revenues according to Goldman Sachs.

The analyst is unfazed by the 40% gearing level and considers Lifestyle Communities is well positioned to deliver between 1300 to1700 settlements over the next 36 months.

The analyst adjusts EPS forecasts by 3.0% for FY23 and 3.8% for FY24. A Buy rating, and on the Goldman Sachs conviction list, with a $26.50 target.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $17.01 Difference: $9.49
If LIC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.89.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.74.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((LIC)) as Buy (1) –

While 1H profit for Lifestyle Communities was well below expectation, Jarden largely blames timing around settlements. 

Management maintained its three-year (FY23-25) outlook guidance targeting settlements of 1,400-1,700 and deferred management fee (DMF) resales of 550-750.

Sales-related employee costs pushed up costs in the 1H, explains the analyst. The broker lowers its earnings forecasts by -2-3% and the target falls to $21.30 from $21.40. Buy.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $21.30 Current Price is $17.01 Difference: $4.29
If LIC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGH    MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $2.96

Wilsons rates ((MGH)) as Overweight (1) –

Maas Group provided a 1H23 earnings pre-release of 60% growth in EBITDA, which is 20% above Wilsons' expectations.

FY23 management guidance was unchanged at $150-$180m EBITDA, inferring the results will be pushed into the 2H23.

Macro headwinds from rising interest rates are forecast to continue to weigh on the residential market segment.

The Overweight rating and $4.01 target are under review and will be assessed alongside the 1H23 results due out on February 23.

This report was published on February 10, 2023.

Target price is $4.01 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: $1.05
If MGH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 23.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.65.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.37.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR    MIRVAC GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $2.21

Jarden rates ((MGR)) as Underweight (4) –

First half operating earnings were in line with Jarden's estimate. Nevertheless, the down cycle in residential is extending and affecting FY24 and even possibly FY25, the broker warns.

Management feedback has signalled that cancellations are at elevated levels above the historical run rate and only 430 sales were achieved in the  second quarter.

While Mirvac Group is trading at a -18% discount to NTA, reflecting greater value compared with its closest peer, momentum remains negative and Jarden retains an Underweight rating. Target is reduced to $2.10 from $2.15.

This report was published on February 13, 2023.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If MGR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 12.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.8, implying annual growth of -35.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 14.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of -2.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MP1    MEGAPORT LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $6.02

Goldman Sachs rates ((MP1)) as Buy (1) –

Post an investor meeting hosted by Goldman Sachs for Megaport, the analyst retains a Buy rating and $8.20 target.

Key points include a positive outlook for revenue growth from "increased yield per customer" as well as the start of the new CRO, Jeff Tworek, filling a position left vacant since May 2022.

Management is also looking to margin expansion of 70-72%  in the medium term.

Buy rating with no change to FY23 EBITDA forecast and a minor -1% fall in FY24. Target unchanged at $8.20.

This report was published on February 13, 2023.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $6.02 Difference: $2.18
If MP1 meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.05, suggesting upside of 50.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 54.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 301.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWS    NEWS CORPORATION

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $27.51

Goldman Sachs rates ((NWS)) as Buy (1) –

News Corp reported 2Q23 earnings which were a 'miss', according to Goldman Sachs.

The lower than expected results were due to higher news media costs in the DowJones/Real Estate segments and a softer result from book publishing.

The company announced a 5% headcount reduction while expecting slower growth in book publishing going forward, although management remains committed to share buybacks and dividend payments.

Goldman Sachs lowers EPS forecasts by -35% and -17% for FY23 and FY24. Buy rating and $31 target.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $27.51 Difference: $3.49
If NWS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.18, suggesting upside of 20.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 51.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 94.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.1, implying annual growth of 48.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PFP    PROPEL FUNERAL PARTNERS LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $4.40

Bell Potter rates ((PFP)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter believes incremental scale benefits will accrue to Propel Funeral Partners via three acquisitions for -$36.9m. The benefits will largely come from the South Australia businesses when combined with existing operations in the state.

The transactions comprise two funeral service businesses and 1 pet cremation businesses, Alfred James & Sons in SA, and in New Zealand, Funeral Home/Pets at Rest.

The target price remains at $5.70 despite upgrades to forecasts earnings as the broker lowers its forecast P/E multiple by around -13%, which now aligns better with recently de-rated multiples across the company's peer group.

The Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $1.3
If PFP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.30 cents and EPS of 16.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.35.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.80 cents and EPS of 18.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.91.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((PFP)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Propel Funeral Partners announced the purchase of two funeral service businesses and a pet cremation business for -$37m which is expected to add some $12m in additional revenues, according to Moelis.

The additions will diversify and increase the geographic footprint of the company in Adelaide, Hamilton (NZ) and Auckland.

The broker lifts EPS forecasts by 3% and 4% for FY23 and FY24, respectively.

Moelis remains positively disposed to the defensive nature of the businesses and the longer term secular tailwinds.

The rating is upgraded to a Buy from a Hold and the target is $5.18.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $5.18 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $0.78
If PFP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.40 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.04.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.20 cents and EPS of 20.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PGL    PROSPA GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $0.55

Shaw and Partners rates ((PGL)) as Buy (1) –

A 1H trading update by Prospa Group showed much improved metrics, according to Shaw and Partners, slightly offset by the impact of rising interest rates, with cost of funds and loss provisions both increasing.

Total revenues rose by 72% on the previous corresponding period and were 16% ahead of the analysts's forecast.

First half results are due on February 24.

The broker sees loan book momentum for FY23, even prior to the impact from recently released new products (which could be potentially significant).

The Buy rating and $1.60 target are unchanged.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $1.05
If PGL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 191% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.41.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.87.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA    REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $125.56

Jarden rates ((REA)) as Overweight (2) –

REA Group's FY22 results met Jarden's expectations and the analyst continues to have a positive view on the company, in spite of weaker listings, as indicated by CoreLogic data and competition.

Efficient cost management and the leading market position underpin competitive pricing and the ability for REA Group to offset the macro headwinds of rising interest rates on the property sector.

Jarden has adjusted EPS forecasts for FY23 and FY24 by -1.5% and 4.8%. respectively.

An Overweight rating and the target is lowered to $123 from $125.

This report was published on February 13, 2023.

Target price is $123.00 Current Price is $125.56 Difference: minus $2.56 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $120.47, suggesting downside of -4.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 162.40 cents and EPS of 310.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 260.3, implying annual growth of -10.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 156.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 202.70 cents and EPS of 384.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 334.4, implying annual growth of 28.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 185.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGR    STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $1.52

Jarden rates ((SGR)) as Overweight (2) –

Star Entertainment's 1H results revealed to Jarden a stronger Gold Coast result, which offset a weaker outcome in Sydney, while Brisbane was in line.

Management's FY23 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $330-360m was below the broker's $463m estimate.

The analyst attributes the weaker guidance to greater-than-expected operating deleverage at Sydney from weaker Table revenue and slightly weaker Slots. Significant weakness in the private gaming room is now implied.

The broker believes higher compliance costs and operating deleverage leaves Star in a precarious position to withstand higher gaming taxes in NSW. FY23-25 EPS forecasts are reduced by -35-53%. 

The target falls to $2.08 from $2.80. Overweight.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $2.08 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.56
If SGR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.20, suggesting upside of 44.7%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.4, implying annual growth of 22.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TRJ    TRAJAN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $1.71

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TRJ)) as Buy (1) –

While Trajan Group is already the sole distributor for HDExaminer, it has announced an agreement to acquire the software business for -US$430,000. The transaction doesn't impact Canaccord Genuity's forecasts.

First half results are due on February 27.

Ultimately, the analyst expects conservative FY23 revenue and earnings guidance will be beaten with minimal organic growth, given the magnitude of price rises implemented so far.

The Buy rating and $2.50 target are unchanged.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.79
If TRJ meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.71.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.43.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VIT    VITURA HEALTH LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.53

Bell Potter rates ((VIT)) as Buy (1) –

Vitura Health's first half gross revenue and earnings (EBITDA) of $57.6m and $11.9m, respectively, were beats against Bell Potter's forecasts for $55.4m and $9m. The earnings margin rose to 20.6% from 15.6% in FY22.

While the broker upgrades its FY23 revenue and earnings forecasts, growth rates beyond FY23 in the outlook period are downgraded to reflect a maturing trend for the overall market.

Gross margins will also narrow, explains the analyst, as an increasing proportion of the company's sales derive from third-party suppliers and competitive pressures kick in over a longer-term horizon.

The target falls to 90c from $1.00. Buy.

This report was published on February 15, 2023.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.37
If VIT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.60 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.28.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.32.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VUL    VULCAN ENERGY RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $6.28

Canaccord Genuity rates ((VUL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

The capital requirement for Vulcan Energy Resources' Zero Carbon Lithium project has lifted to -US$1.6bn due to a larger project size and the requirement for additional wells, explains Canaccord Genuity.

Results for the company's Phase 1 definitive feasibilty study for the project have been released and highlights to the broker the depth of work completed since the early-2021 pre-feasibility study (PFS).

This new study is integrated with the previous Phase 1 from the PFS, the recently-acquired Insheim geothermal plant and planned offtake from the Landou plant, explains the analyst.

The Speculative Buy rating and $19 target are unchanged.

This report was published on February 14, 2023.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $6.28 Difference: $12.72
If VUL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 203% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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