Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Nov 23, 2023

This story features LIFE360 INC, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 360

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

360   A11   ALQ   APA   CAJ   CPU   EBR   EVN   FLT (3)   ING   IPH   NUF   SKO   TYR  

360    LIFE360 INC

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $7.35

Goldman Sachs rates ((360)) as Buy (1) –

Net subscriber additions for Life360 returned close to peak levels in the 3Q and beat Goldman Sachs' forecast.

Importantly, according to the broker, the International segment had a record quarter driven by Canada, Australia and the UK, where the company is expanding its higher-priced Membership offering.

The broker anticipates "robust" medium-term Subscriptions revenue growth thanks to subscription volume growth for International and the US, along with greater conversion/retention due to Tile membership bundling.

Management upgraded earnings (EBITDA) guidance to US$12-16m, compared to the US$16m the broker was already forecasting.

The $10.50 target and Buy rating are unchanged.

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $7.35 Difference: $3.15
If 360 meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 162.47.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 54.15.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

A11    ATLANTIC LITHIUM LIMITED.

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.53

Wilsons rates ((A11)) as Overweight (1) –

The board of Atlantic Lithium has rejected a conditional and non-binding offer by 25% shareholder south African-based Assore International Holdings (made on November 7) to acquire 100% of Atlantic Lithium at 63c/share.

Wilsons considers the bid highly opportunistic, in light of the broad weakness that has impacted the lithium sector over the last few months.

The Overweight rating and target price of 95 cents are retained.

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.425
If A11 meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 131.25.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALQ    ALS LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $12.22

Jarden rates ((ALQ)) as Buy (1) –

ALS Ltd's 1H results revealed greater earnings resilience than Jarden expected, with profit coming in $3.8m above the top end of management's guidance range.

This outcome was achieved despite weak macroeconomic conditions in geochemistry sampling (Commodities), pharmaceutical testing (Life Sciences) and recent management turnover, point out the analysts. 

While making only minor forecast revisions, the broker remains positive on the outlook with an unchanged Buy rating and $13.40 target. It's felt volume weakness for Commodities may have reached a nadir.

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Target price is $13.40 Current Price is $12.22 Difference: $1.18
If ALQ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.94, suggesting downside of -2.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 41.90 cents and EPS of 66.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.0, implying annual growth of 12.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 44.90 cents and EPS of 70.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.7, implying annual growth of 4.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APA    APA GROUP

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $8.29

Jarden rates ((APA)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes the majority of time at APA Group's investor briefing was dedicated to the grid solution opportunities in the Pilbara, following the recent acquisition of Alinta Energy’s assets in the region.

Of the targeted growth opportunities in the Pilbara, 80% relate to wind farms which are necessary for decarbonisation, according to management.

Key risks to the group's growth ambition are land access and obtaining environmental approvals, caution the analysts.

The Overweight rating and $9.20 target are maintained.

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $8.29 Difference: $0.91
If APA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.10, suggesting upside of 9.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 20.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.4, implying annual growth of 0.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.50 cents and EPS of 22.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 0.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAJ    CAPITOL HEALTH LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.21

Goldman Sachs rates ((CAJ)) as Neutral (3) –

Capitol Health is experiencing solid margin improvement compared to FY23, with October year-to-date revenues tracking just over 27% above the previous corresponding period, observes Goldman Sachs, following an AGM trading update.

Management provided no quantitative guidance though the broker noted incrementally positive commentary on trading conditions, with Medicare data corroborating the volume recovery underway.

The analysts point to an ongoing supply shortage of labour and wages inflation, also evident across the broader industry, which is driving  a structurally higher cost base and limiting any margin recovery.

Target price 24c.  Neutral.

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.03
If CAJ meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 39.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.3, implying annual growth of 30.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU    COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $23.26

Jarden rates ((CPU)) as Overweight (2) –

Management at Computershare's AGM indicated FY24 year-to-date performance is in line with Jarden's forecasts and reiterated guidance for around 7.5% management EPS growth (constant currency). Margin income (MI) guidance was also unchanged.

The brokers MI forecasts (factoring in the US Mortgage Services sale) remain relatively unchanged for FY24 and FY25 at $824m and $764m, respectively. The Mortgage Services sale and a $750m buyback were not included in management's FY24 guidance.

The Overweight rating is retained by Jarden because of an undemanding valuation and capital management alternatives. The $28.00 target is also unchanged.

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $23.26 Difference: $4.74
If CPU meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.46, suggesting upside of 22.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 179.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 191.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 196.5, implying annual growth of 16.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 114.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EBR    EBR SYSTEMS INC

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.63

Wilsons rates ((EBR)) as Overweight (1) –

EBR Systems has advised of a delay of up to six months in the submission of the last module of its premarket approval to the FDA.

As Wilsons points out, third party validation "takes the time it takes", but the delay increases the financial and valuation risk facing the stock.

The broker points out EBR Systems is expected to raise equity capital to fund its commercial launch in coming years, and whether that raise is undertaken before or after receiving FDA approval will impact on the issue price. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.32 from $1.65.

This report was published on November 15, 2023.

Target price is $1.32 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.69
If EBR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 110% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 20.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.07.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.98.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.80

Jarden rates ((EVN)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden raises its target for Evolution Mining to $3.23 from $3.11 after incorporating into forecasts adjustments to the broker's three-stage weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

The unchanged Neutral rating is a concession by the broker to Evolution's financial leverage, despite a lack of valuation support. 

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Target price is $3.23 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting downside of -0.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 26.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.7, implying annual growth of 222.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 25.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of 6.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT    FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $19.06

Goldman Sachs rates ((FLT)) as Neutral (3) –

Flight Centre Travel's 1Q trading update revealed a rise of around 20% in total transaction volume (TTV), which was largely in line with Goldman Sachs' forecast. Revenue margin expansion was a beat while profit (PBT) was a miss.

The mid-point of management's FY24 profit guidance of $270-$310m compares to the consensus expectation for $297m.

Goldman Sachs lowers its FY24-26 profit forecasts by -7%, -2% and -3%, respectively, on lower earnings projections and a higher forecast for convertible bond interest. The target falls to $20 from $21.50.

The Neutral rating is maintained. The broker expects the leisure recovery will be below pre-pandemic levels and the channel strategy will prove to be revenue margin dilutive.

This report was published on November 15, 2023.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $19.06 Difference: $0.94
If FLT meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.38, suggesting upside of 27.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 85.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.0, implying annual growth of 319.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 113.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.6, implying annual growth of 42.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((FLT)) as Overweight (2) –

While Jarden cuts its FY24 profit (PBT) forecast for Flight Centre Travel by around -11% to $304.5m, following an AGM trading update, the broker still sits at the top end of management's guidance range.

The overall margin is set to recover more slowly than the analysts originally anticipated, partly because some higher margin routes, including Europe, are being impacted by scarcity of supply.

The broker also increases the forecast for 'other costs' due to a slower pace of easing losses in new ventures, and slower improvement in the 99 Bikes joint venture.

The target falls to $22 from $23.60. Overweight retained on the broker's positive outlook for the travel sector.

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $19.06 Difference: $2.94
If FLT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.38, suggesting upside of 27.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 95.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.0, implying annual growth of 319.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 87.00 cents and EPS of 150.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.6, implying annual growth of 42.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((FLT)) as Overweight (1) –

A solid start to the new year from Flight Centre Travel, says Wilsons, with the company reporting total transaction value of $6bn in the first quarter and underlying profit of $54m, up 20% and 38% year-on-year respectively. 

The company has provided a wide full year profit guidance range of $270-310m, but Wilsons feels this gives appropriate downside protection given capacity constraints and an uncertain economic background.

The Overweight rating and target price of $23.80 are retained.

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Target price is $23.80 Current Price is $19.06 Difference: $4.74
If FLT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.38, suggesting upside of 27.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 44.80 cents and EPS of 89.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.0, implying annual growth of 319.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 61.50 cents and EPS of 123.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.6, implying annual growth of 42.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ING    INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $3.78

Jarden rates ((ING)) as Overweight (2) –

Should management deliver on targets set at Inghams Group's investor day, Jarden envisages more than 25% upside risk to the consensus forecast for FY25 earnings (EBITDA).

The broker currently predicts an earnings margin of circa 8% for FY25, yet management is aspiring to more than 10%.

Regarding the industry structure, key takeaways by the analysts were of competitors acting rationally, supply being tight and poultry consumption rising.

The near-to medium-term outlook is positive, according to Jarden, and the Overweight rating and $3.90 target are maintained.

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $0.12
If ING meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 2.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.40 cents and EPS of 34.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of 88.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 23.60 cents and EPS of 33.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPH    IPH LIMITED

Legal – Overnight Price: $6.79

Goldman Sachs rates ((IPH)) as Buy (1) –

Following a trading update for the first four months of FY24, Goldman Sachs believes FY24 earnings of $188m forecast by both the broker and consensus will be met.

The first two months of FY24 for the Asian division were impacted by the loss of a large client exiting China in FY23, explains the broker.

Pleasingly, suggests the analyst, Asia continues to grow (excluding the China client impact), while A&NZ has returned to growth despite softness in filings.

The Buy rating and $8.75 target are unchanged.

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $6.79 Difference: $1.96
If IPH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.31, suggesting upside of 51.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.4, implying annual growth of 58.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.3, implying annual growth of 8.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUF    NUFARM LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $4.59

Wilsons rates ((NUF)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons has found Nufarm's full year result a mixed bag, with weakness countered by a strong result from the seeds segment.

As omega-3 continues to progress towards commercial materiality, the broker suggests meeting sales milestones will prove important catalysts to de-risk valuation potential.

Group-wide, sales declined -8% year-on-year to $3,481m, while earnings declined -2% year-on-year to $438m. Notably, crop protection sales and earnings tumbled -6% and -9% respectively, amid channel destocking. 

The Market Weight rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.13 from $4.85. 

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Target price is $5.13 Current Price is $4.59 Difference: $0.54
If NUF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.10, suggesting upside of 32.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 24.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of 32.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 32.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.6, implying annual growth of 28.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKO    SERKO LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $3.85

Jarden rates ((SKO)) as Neutral (3) –

In an encouraging sign of adoption for Serko's unmanaged business travel platform in the 1H, given limited marketing efforts, the majority of new customers were net new growth as opposed to reactivation, explains Jarden.

While in line with expectations, the broker assesses a "strong" 1H result, along with an upgrade to FY24 revenue guidance. Traction was evident for the Bookings.com Business tool given 24% growth against the 2H of FY23 for completed room nights.

The analysts caution renegotiation of the partnership agreement with Bookings.com in 2024 poses a near-term risk should the terms change.

The Neutral rating is unchanged and the target is increased to NZ$4.85 from NZ$4.35.

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Current Price is $3.85. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $5.10, suggesting upside of 32.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -10.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 346.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 641.7.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TYR    TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.02

Wilsons rates ((TYR)) as Market Weight (3) –

Tyro Payments has surprised Wilsons with the announcement of a -10% headcount reduction, with the broker describing the news as an unfortunate but likely neccessary step to offset headwinds from merchant and transaction churn.

Following redundancies, the broker estimates the monthly operating expenditure run-rate falling to $12m, down from a current $13m per month. Wilsons estimates the savings could see Tyro Payments deliver first half earnings of $27.0m. 

The Market Weight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.08 from $1.37.

This report was published on November 16, 2023.

Target price is $1.08 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.06
If TYR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting upside of 68.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of 46.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 60.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.3, implying annual growth of 94.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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