APA GROUP (APA)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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APA - APA GROUP

FNArena Sector : Infrastructure & Utilities

Year End: June

GICS Industry Group : Utilities

Debt/EBITDA: 7.04

Index: ASX50 | ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

APA Group owns and operates natural gas and electricity assets, while increasingly adding renewables. It is Australia's largest natural gas infrastructure business and one of few true local dividend champions. It listed in 2000.

LAST PRICE	CHANGE +/-	CHANGE %	VOLUME
$8.89 17 Sep 2025	0.020 OPEN $8.89	0.23% HIGH $8.96	2,363,171 LOW $8.88

TARGET

$8.398

-5.5% downside

OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
AGL . AIA . ALX . CEN . DBI . DBI . GNE . GNP . MEZ . ORG . SRJ . TCL .

FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS

Title	FY24 Actual	FY25 Actual	FY26 Forecast	FY27 Forecast
EPS (cps)	xxx	7.6	21.2	xxx
DPS (cps)	xxx	57.0	57.8	xxx
EPS Growth	xxx	- 90.1%	100.0%	xxx
DPS Growth	xxx	1.8%	1.3%	xxx
PE Ratio	xxx	N/A	41.8	xxx
Dividend Yield	xxx	N/A	6.5%	xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%)	xxx	746.1%	272.1%	xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 5.49%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 30/12 - (franking ex-di

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD

Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved

Title	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
EPS Basic	22.4	-3.3	19.5	22.3	77.3	7.6
DPS All	50.0	51.0	53.0	55.0	56.0	57.0
Sales/Revenue	2,547.2 M	2,563.5 M	2,692.9 M	2,834.0 M	3,015.0 M	3,144.0 M
Book Value Per Share	273.2	251.7	222.8	161.9	253.1	204.5
Net Operating Cash Flow	1,095.9 M	1,051.0 M	1,197.3 M	1,206.0 M	1,156.0 M	1,284.0 M
Net Profit Margin	10.37 %	-1.53 %	8.56 %	9.28 %	32.44 %	3.15 %

EPS Basic

Negative
Growth
Slowing

DPS All

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Sales/Revenue

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Book Value Per Share

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Net Operating Cash Flow

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Net Profit Margin

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Title	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Return on Capital Employed	7.74 %	-1.27 %	8.24 %	11.59 %	37.92 %	3.35 %
Return on Invested Capital	1.93 %	-0.29 %	1.74 %	1.96 %	7.09 %	0.64 %
Return on Assets	1.63 %	-0.25 %	1.47 %	1.61 %	5.34 %	0.49 %
Return on Equity	7.74 %	-1.27 %	8.24 %	11.59 %	37.92 %	3.35 %
Return on Total Capital	6.84 %	6.76 %	6.78 %	6.45 %	6.15 %	6.07 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends	96.6 M	27.0 M	79.2 M	-484.0 M	-479.0 M	-178.0 M

Return on Capital Employed

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Invested Capital

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Assets

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Equity

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Total Capital

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Title	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Short-Term Debt	324 M	17 M	17 M	218 M	1,919 M	17 M
Long Term Debt	10,664 M	9,971 M	10,945 M	11,368 M	11,073 M	14,002 M
Total Debt	10,988 M	9,987 M	10,961 M	11,586 M	12,992 M	14,019 M
Goodwill - Gross	1,184 M	1,184 M	1,184 M	1,184 M	1,882 M	1,860 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic	1,173 M	663 M	940 M	513 M	676 M	800 M
Price To Book Value	4.07	3.54	5.06	5.99	3.16	3.99

Short-Term Debt

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Long Term Debt

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Total Debt

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Goodwill - Gross

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Price To Book Value

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Title	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Capex	427.3 M	432.9 M	689.0 M	1,180.0 M	1,096.0 M	964.0 M
Capex % of Sales	16.78 %	16.89 %	25.59 %	41.64 %	36.35 %	30.66 %
Cost of Goods Sold	1,580 M	1,635 M	1,782 M	1,887 M	2,115 M	2,144 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other	5 M	9 M	12 M	74 M	-15 M	0 M
Research & Development	-	-	-	-	-	-
Investments - Total	807 M	459 M	628 M	703 M	482 M	981 M

Capex

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Capex % of Sales

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Cost of Goods Sold

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Research & Development

Investments - Total

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Negative

Growth

Slowing

EXPERT VIEWS
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EXPERT VIEWS

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Sentiment Indicator

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No. Of Recommendations

BROKER	DATE	RATING	RECOMMENDATION	TARGET PRICE	% TO REACH TARGET	COMMENTARY
Morgan Stanley	xx/xx/xxxx	3	xxxxx-xxxxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Morgans	xx/xx/xxxx	4	xxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Macquarie	21/08/2025	1	Outperform	$9.23	3.82%	APA Group reported FY25 earnings pre one-offs up 6.4%, which broadly met Macquarie and consensus forecasts. FY26 guidance is also in line, as was the 58c dividend. Macquarie notes ongoing high one-off costs. Growth was generated by the east coast grid, up 6.3%, with the west coast up 5.2% meeting estimates. Power transmission rose 17.3%, which was slightly better than expected, with improvement in the Mt Isa power system and first income from Port Hedland SDF/battery. Gas being part of the energy transition strengthens the growth outlook, Macquarie suggests, with three-year capex at -$2.1bn (previously -$1.8bn). The yield of 6.7% pa is sustainable, the broker believes, with growing franking in coming years. Core earnings momentum should build with cost reductions and as new investment becomes income-generating. Target rises to $9.23 from $8.14, Outperform retained. FORECAST Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents. Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 20.80 cents.
Ord Minnett	xx/xx/xxxx	2	xxxxxxxxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
UBS	xx/xx/xxxx	5	xxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial

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EXTRA COVERAGE

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No. Of Recommendations

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER	DATE	RATING	RECOMMENDATION	TARGET PRICE	% TO REACH TARGET	COMMENTARY
Jarden	25/08/2025	2	Overweight	$9.10	2.36%	Jarden notes APA Group has given up its ambition to become a major east cost transmission developer and will instead refocus on gas. The broker reckons the strategy will be welcomed by the market and is sensible in its view. The FY25 underlying EBITDA met consensus and came at the top end of guidance. Reported net profit beat the broker's estimate and consensus, while free cash flow was in line with the broker but 3% ahead of the consensus. FY26 EBITDA guidance was in line with consensus, though the broker estimates it's a 1% beat as consensus didn't factor in recent sale of Networks business. Overall the broker believes execution risk is reduced, cash flow remains strong, and medium-term EBITDA growth is underpinned by CPI pass-through, new contracts, and cost savings. Overweight. Target lifted to $9.10 from $8.90 mainly on lower medium-term cost outlook. FORECAST Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents. Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents.

BROKER

DATE

RATING

RECOMMENDATION

TARGET PRICE

% TO REACH TARGET

COMMENTARY

Jarden

25/08/2025

Overweight

$9.10

2.36%

Jarden notes APA Group has given up its ambition to become a major east cost transmission developer and will instead refocus on gas. The broker reckons the strategy will be welcomed by the market and is sensible in its view.

The FY25 underlying EBITDA met consensus and came at the top end of guidance. Reported net profit beat the broker's estimate and consensus, while free cash flow was in line with the broker but 3% ahead of the consensus.

FY26 EBITDA guidance was in line with consensus, though the broker estimates it's a 1% beat as consensus didn't factor in recent sale of Networks business.

Overall the broker believes execution risk is reduced, cash flow remains strong, and medium-term EBITDA growth is underpinned by CPI pass-through, new contracts, and cost savings.

Overweight. Target lifted to $9.10 from $8.90 mainly on lower medium-term cost outlook.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents.

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Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :	6.42
Estimated Dividend Growth (Average Of Past Three Years)	%
Amount Invested	$
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APA GROUP (APA)
Share Price Analysis and Chart