Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jan 16, 2024

This story features BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BGL

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

BGL   BHP   BSL   CAI   CIA   CMM   CRN   FMG   GMD   GOR   ILU   LYC   MIN   NHC   RIO   RMS   RRL   SFR   SLR   SPR   TIE   WHC  

BGL    BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.52

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BGL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Investors should expect gold and gold equities to outperfom in 2024 is the explicit message from the latest sector update by analysts at Canaccord Genuity.

The key driver behind this forecast is the prospect of Fed rate cuts later in the year. Historical precedents saw average increases of 40% in the 12 months following the first cut, report the analysts, with both gold and gold equities outperforming the ASX300 and S&P500 in each case.

Canaccord Genuity has lifted its long term gold price forecast in USD from 2027 by 8.4% to US$2,341/oz. In AUD, the long term forecast has increased to A$3,345/oz.

On the ASX, the broker's sector favourites are Resolute Mining, Westgold Resources, Predictive Discovery and De Grey Mining.

For Bellevue Gold, the Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.85 from $1.75.

This report was published on January 11, 2024.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.325
If BGL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP    BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $47.18

Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs is positive on base metals in 2024 and in particular expects price upside for copper as well as aluminium and alumina.

The iron ore market should be balanced in 2024, according to the analysts, driven by outperforming Chinese steel production, restrained scrap-based electric arc furnace (EAF) output, and a disappointing iron ore supply performance from both Australia and Brazil.

The Buy rating is kept for BHP Group. It's felt the major opportunity is growing copper production in Chile at Escondida and Spence, and growing copper production and capturing synergies in South Australia between Olympic Dam and the previous OZ Minerals assets.

The broker's target rises to $50.5 from $49.90.

This report was published on January 10, 2024.

Target price is $50.50 Current Price is $47.18 Difference: $3.32
If BHP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $46.25, suggesting downside of -2.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 226.42 cents and EPS of 400.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 399.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 226.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 181.13 cents and EPS of 410.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 432.9, implying annual growth of 8.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 254.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL    BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $22.67

Goldman Sachs rates ((BSL)) as Buy (1) –

Following a review of the Australia Metals and Mining sector, Goldman Sachs remains Buy-rated on BlueScope Steel.

Along with a compelling company valuation, the broker notes US steel prices are rebounding and East Asia steel prices are also recovering.

Goldman's 2024 forecasts are raised for Asian and US HRC prices as they continue to move higher into the first quarter of the new year.

The target price rises to $26.40 from $23.70.

This report was published on January 10, 2024.

Target price is $26.40 Current Price is $22.67 Difference: $3.73
If BSL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.00, suggesting downside of -7.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 236.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 197.4, implying annual growth of -9.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 235.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 211.7, implying annual growth of 7.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAI    CALIDUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.22

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CAI)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Investors should expect gold and gold equities to outperfom in 2024 is the explicit message from the latest sector update by analysts at Canaccord Genuity.

The key driver behind this forecast is the prospect of Fed rate cuts later in the year. Historical precedents saw average increases of 40% in the 12 months following the first cut, report the analysts, with both gold and gold equities outperforming the ASX300 and S&P500 in each case.

Canaccord Genuity has lifted its long term gold price forecast in USD from 2027 by 8.4% to US$2,341/oz. In AUD, the long term forecast has increased to A$3,345/oz.

On the ASX, the broker's sector favourites are Resolute Mining, Westgold Resources, Predictive Discovery and De Grey Mining.

For Calidus Resources, the Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to 35 cents from 33 cents.

This report was published on January 11, 2024.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.13
If CAI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIA    CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $8.37

Goldman Sachs rates ((CIA)) as Buy (1) –

The iron ore market should be balanced in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs, driven by outperforming Chinese steel production and restrained scrap-based electric arc furnace (EAF) output.

The broker is also expecting a disappointing iron ore supply performance from both Australia and Brazil.

The analysts raise the target for Champion Iron to $9.20 from $8.30 and maintain a Buy rating.

This report was published on January 10, 2024.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $8.37 Difference: $0.83
If CIA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.50 cents and EPS of 66.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.68.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 34.69 cents and EPS of 98.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.50.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $4.51

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CMM)) as Buy (1) –

Investors should expect gold and gold equities to outperfom in 2024 is the explicit message from the latest sector update by analysts at Canaccord Genuity.

The key driver behind this forecast is the prospect of Fed rate cuts later in the year. Historical precedents saw average increases of 40% in the 12 months following the first cut, report the analysts, with both gold and gold equities outperforming the ASX300 and S&P500 in each case.

Canaccord Genuity has lifted its long term gold price forecast in USD from 2027 by 8.4% to US$2,341/oz. In AUD, the long term forecast has increased to A$3,345/oz.

On the ASX, the broker's sector favourites are Resolute Mining, Westgold Resources, Predictive Discovery and De Grey Mining.

For Capricorn Metals, the Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.85 from $5.20.

This report was published on January 11, 2024.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $4.51 Difference: $1.34
If CMM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN    CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC

Coal – Overnight Price: $1.73

Goldman Sachs rates ((CRN)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs expects a supportive metallurgical coal market in 2024 due to strong Indian and Chinese demand, and ongoing supply risks from both Australia and Canada.

The broker's Buy rating for Coronado Global Resources is retained while the target rises to $2.00 from $1.95.

This report was published on January 10, 2024.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.275
If CRN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 23.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.17 cents and EPS of 25.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.66 cents and EPS of 19.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 30.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG    FORTESCUE LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $27.24

Goldman Sachs rates ((FMG)) as Sell (5) –

The iron ore market should be balanced in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs, driven by outperforming Chinese steel production and restrained scrap-based electric arc furnace (EAF) output.

The broker is also expecting a disappointing iron ore supply performance from both Australia and Brazil.

Because of ongoing low Chinese steel mill margins, low grade 58% Fe should continue to outperform high grade 65% lump/pellets over the near-term due to the steel industry’s ongoing focus on reducing costs, explain the analysts.

However, Goldman forecasts a widening discount for low grade 58% Fe product for Fortescue over the medium-to long-term. 

The broker also anticipates execution and ramp-up risks at Iron Bridge and Gabon, along with ongoing uncertainties around the Fortescue Energy diversification.

The Sell rating is maintained and the target climbs to $19.30 from $18.10.

This report was published on January 10, 2024.

Target price is $19.30 Current Price is $27.24 Difference: minus $7.94 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $20.35, suggesting downside of -25.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 161.51 cents and EPS of 271.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 319.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 208.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 90.57 cents and EPS of 292.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 235.6, implying annual growth of -26.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 182.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMD    GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.64

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GMD)) as Buy (1) –

Investors should expect gold and gold equities to outperfom in 2024 is the explicit message from the latest sector update by analysts at Canaccord Genuity.

The key driver behind this forecast is the prospect of Fed rate cuts later in the year. Historical precedents saw average increases of 40% in the 12 months following the first cut, report the analysts, with both gold and gold equities outperforming the ASX300 and S&P500 in each case.

Canaccord Genuity has lifted its long term gold price forecast in USD from 2027 by 8.4% to US$2,341/oz. In AUD, the long term forecast has increased to A$3,345/oz.

On the ASX, the broker's sector favourites are Resolute Mining, Westgold Resources, Predictive Discovery and De Grey Mining.

For Genesis Minerals, the Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.60 from $2.25.

This report was published on January 11, 2024.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.64 Difference: $0.96
If GMD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOR    GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.71

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GOR)) as Buy (1) –

Investors should expect gold and gold equities to outperfom in 2024 is the explicit message from the latest sector update by analysts at Canaccord Genuity.

The key driver behind this forecast is the prospect of Fed rate cuts later in the year. Historical precedents saw average increases of 40% in the 12 months following the first cut, report the analysts, with both gold and gold equities outperforming the ASX300 and S&P500 in each case.

Canaccord Genuity has lifted its long term gold price forecast in USD from 2027 by 8.4% to US$2,341/oz. In AUD, the long term forecast has increased to A$3,345/oz.

On the ASX, the broker's sector favourites are Resolute Mining, Westgold Resources, Predictive Discovery and De Grey Mining.

For Gold Road Resources, the Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.20 from $2.00.

This report was published on January 11, 2024.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.495
If GOR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 24.6%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.2, implying annual growth of 88.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 16.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU    ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $6.74

Goldman Sachs rates ((ILU)) as Buy (1) –

Following a review of the Australia Metals and Mining sector, Goldman Sachs sees compelling mineral sands and rare earth growth potential for Iluka Resources.

The broker forecasts supply shortages over the medium-term for zircon and high grade TiO2 feedstock.

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target falls to $10.10 from $10.80.

This report was published on January 10, 2024.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $3.36
If ILU meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.25, suggesting upside of 22.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.5, implying annual growth of -51.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.5, implying annual growth of 17.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LYC    LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $6.28

Goldman Sachs rates ((LYC)) as Buy (1) –

Following a review of the Australia Metals and Mining sector, Goldman Sachs remains Buy-rated on Lynas Rare Earths.

The broker forecasts the neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) market will be balanced in 2024 given the recent China production quota was flat for the 2H of 2023.

The target price rises to $7.70 from $7.50.

This report was published on January 10, 2024.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $6.28 Difference: $1.42
If LYC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.08, suggesting upside of 28.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.1, implying annual growth of -41.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.2, implying annual growth of 134.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN    MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $60.86

Goldman Sachs rates ((MIN)) as Sell (5) –

The iron ore market should be balanced in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs, driven by outperforming Chinese steel production and restrained scrap-based electric arc furnace (EAF) output.

The broker is also expecting a disappointing iron ore supply performance from both Australia and Brazil. 

Regarding lithium, Goldman expects prices will remain low in 2024.

For Mineral Resources, the analysts stay with a Sell rating, while the target rises to $53 from $49.

This report was published on January 10, 2024.

Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $60.86 Difference: minus $7.86 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $72.64, suggesting upside of 19.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 251.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 271.3, implying annual growth of 113.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 102.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 119.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 552.2, implying annual growth of 103.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 246.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC    NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $5.38

Goldman Sachs rates ((NHC)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs forecasts the thermal coal market will be in surplus during 2024.

The broker remains Sell-rated on New Hope given the share price is incorporating a long-run thermal coal price of more than US$100/t (real) compared to the broker's US$85/t forecast.

The $3.60 target is unchanged.

This report was published on January 10, 2024.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $5.38 Difference: minus $1.78 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.20, suggesting downside of -3.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.9, implying annual growth of -50.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.6, implying annual growth of 5.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO    RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $128.32

Goldman Sachs rates ((RIO)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs is positive on base metals in 2024 and in particular expects price upside for copper as well as aluminium and alumina.

The iron ore market should be balanced in 2024, according to the analysts, driven by outperforming Chinese steel production, restrained scrap-based electric arc furnace (EAF) output, and a disappointing iron ore supply performance from both Australia and Brazil.

For Rio Tinto, the broker expects strong production growth in 2024-2025 of 5-6% copper equivalent driven by the ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground copper mine, and a recovery at Escondida and Bingham.

Goldman also sees potential for free cash flow per tonne improvement in the Pilbara. The Buy rating is maintained and the target rises to $141.80 from $137.70.

This report was published on January 10, 2024.

Target price is $141.80 Current Price is $128.32 Difference: $13.48
If RIO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $126.33, suggesting downside of -1.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 662.64 cents and EPS of 1092.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1113.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 637.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 680.76 cents and EPS of 1068.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1305.5, implying annual growth of 17.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 766.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMS    RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.56

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RMS)) as Buy (1) –

Investors should expect gold and gold equities to outperfom in 2024 is the explicit message from the latest sector update by analysts at Canaccord Genuity.

The key driver behind this forecast is the prospect of Fed rate cuts later in the year. Historical precedents saw average increases of 40% in the 12 months following the first cut, report the analysts, with both gold and gold equities outperforming the ASX300 and S&P500 in each case.

Canaccord Genuity has lifted its long term gold price forecast in USD from 2027 by 8.4% to US$2,341/oz. In AUD, the long term forecast has increased to A$3,345/oz.

On the ASX, the broker's sector favourites are Resolute Mining, Westgold Resources, Predictive Discovery and De Grey Mining.

For Ramelius Resources, the Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.15 from $1.90.

This report was published on January 11, 2024.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.585
If RMS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting upside of 21.4%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of 101.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 30.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL    REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.18

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RRL)) as Buy (1) –

Investors should expect gold and gold equities to outperfom in 2024 is the explicit message from the latest sector update by analysts at Canaccord Genuity.

The key driver behind this forecast is the prospect of Fed rate cuts later in the year. Historical precedents saw average increases of 40% in the 12 months following the first cut, report the analysts, with both gold and gold equities outperforming the ASX300 and S&P500 in each case.

Canaccord Genuity has lifted its long term gold price forecast in USD from 2027 by 8.4% to US$2,341/oz. In AUD, the long term forecast has increased to A$3,345/oz.

On the ASX, the broker's sector favourites are Resolute Mining, Westgold Resources, Predictive Discovery and De Grey Mining.

For Regis Resources, the Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.55 from $1.95.

This report was published on January 11, 2024.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.37
If RRL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.02, suggesting downside of -7.2%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1090.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of 8600.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR    SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $6.78

Goldman Sachs rates ((SFR)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) –

Goldman Sachs is positive on base metals in 2024 and in particular expects price upside for copper as well aluminium and alumina.

The broker upgrades its rating for Sandfire Resources to Neutral from Sell and raises the target to $6.70 from $5.40 after assuming an additional three years of mine life at Motheo. The estimated mine life at Matsa was also extended.

Also relevant to Sandfire, the analysts are positive on fundamentals for zinc following recent mine supply cuts.

This report was published on January 10, 2024.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $6.78 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.96, suggesting upside of 2.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.15%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 678.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.11 cents and EPS of 58.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.1, implying annual growth of 3710.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLR    SILVER LAKE RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.19

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SLR)) as Buy (1) –

Investors should expect gold and gold equities to outperfom in 2024 is the explicit message from the latest sector update by analysts at Canaccord Genuity.

The key driver behind this forecast is the prospect of Fed rate cuts later in the year. Historical precedents saw average increases of 40% in the 12 months following the first cut, report the analysts, with both gold and gold equities outperforming the ASX300 and S&P500 in each case.

Canaccord Genuity has lifted its long term gold price forecast in USD from 2027 by 8.4% to US$2,341/oz. In AUD, the long term forecast has increased to A$3,345/oz.

On the ASX, the broker's sector favourites are Resolute Mining, Westgold Resources, Predictive Discovery and De Grey Mining.

For Silver Lake Resources, the Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.55 from $1.40.

This report was published on January 11, 2024.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.365
If SLR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SPR    SPARTAN RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.47

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SPR)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Investors should expect gold and gold equities to outperfom in 2024 is the explicit message from the latest sector update by analysts at Canaccord Genuity.

The key driver behind this forecast is the prospect of Fed rate cuts later in the year. Historical precedents saw average increases of 40% in the 12 months following the first cut, report the analysts, with both gold and gold equities outperforming the ASX300 and S&P500 in each case.

Canaccord Genuity has lifted its long term gold price forecast in USD from 2027 by 8.4% to US$2,341/oz. In AUD, the long term forecast has increased to A$3,345/oz.

On the ASX, the broker's sector favourites are Resolute Mining, Westgold Resources, Predictive Discovery and De Grey Mining.

For Spartan Resources, the Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to 75 cents from 65 cents.

This report was published on January 11, 2024.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.285
If SPR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TIE    TIETTO MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.60

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TIE)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Investors should expect gold and gold equities to outperfom in 2024 is the explicit message from the latest sector update by analysts at Canaccord Genuity.

The key driver behind this forecast is the prospect of Fed rate cuts later in the year. Historical precedents saw average increases of 40% in the 12 months following the first cut, report the analysts, with both gold and gold equities outperforming the ASX300 and S&P500 in each case.

Canaccord Genuity has lifted its long term gold price forecast in USD from 2027 by 8.4% to US$2,341/oz. In AUD, the long term forecast has increased to A$3,345/oz.

On the ASX, the broker's sector favourites are Resolute Mining, Westgold Resources, Predictive Discovery and De Grey Mining.

For Tietto Minerals, the Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to 75 cents from 70 cents.

This report was published on January 11, 2024.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.145
If TIE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHC    WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $8.13

Goldman Sachs rates ((WHC)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs expects a supportive metallurgical coal market in 2024 due to strong Indian and Chinese demand, and ongoing supply risks from both Australia and Canada.

Also, the analysts expect the thermal coal market will be in surplus during 2024.

The broker's Neutral rating for Whitehaven Coal is retained while the target falls to $6.50 from $7.50.

This report was published on January 10, 2024.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $8.13 Difference: minus $1.63 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.81, suggesting downside of -3.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 106.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.0, implying annual growth of -69.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 79.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 126.5, implying annual growth of 36.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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