Weekly Reports | Feb 16 2024
This story features BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BRG
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED ((BRG)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Wilsons were positive on the expansion in gross margins to 37.6% announced in Breville Group's 1H24 earnings report.
The analyst views the -8.5% sell-off in the share price as a reaction to the -5% miss on revenue as the company retained pricing and profit growth, ahead of discounting and volume growth.
Wilsons views the price fall as a good entry point with Breville Group well positioned for sales growth as new country launches and the tailwind of lower interest rates in the future boost consumer sentiment.
The target price is raised to $27.60 from $24.90 and the rating upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight.
JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC ((JHX)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden believes there was short term noise around management retaining 4Q24 guidance, rather than the market focusing on better than forecast 3Q24 results which revealed both US volumes and EBIT ahead of expectations.
The strength in US earnings and leverage is highlighted by the analyst as the US market offers scope to recover.
Jarden raises FY24 EPS forecasts by 6.2% and 11.4% for FY25.
The pullback in the share price was seen as a great opportunity to upgrade to Overweight from Neutral and the target lifted to $57 from $48.
NICK SCALI LIMITED ((NCK)) Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden is very upbeat on Nick Scali's latest 1H24 results which came in much better than expected. Net profit was 7% above the broker's forecast and 5% above consensus.
Gross margins were also better than anticipated which came as a relief with concerns over the impact of higher freight rates.
Jarden assesses Nick Scali as a very high quality retailer and raises the profit after tax forecasts by 11% to 15% for FY24 to FY26.
Accordingly, the stock is upgraded to Overweight from Underweight and the target price is raised to $13.87 from $10.40.
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ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((ANZ)) Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden assessed ANZ Bank's 1Q24 trading update as a "solid beat". Revenues came in better than forecast with bad and doubtful debts (BDD) well below both consensus and the broker's 1H24 expectations.
Regarding net interest margins (NIM), no details were offered, but Jarden considers there is currently no downside risk to the market's NIM forecasts.
At this stage, the analyst makes minor earnings upgrades of 2.6% and 0.5% for FY24 and FY25, respectively, with Jarden awaiting further confirmation of the 1Q24 trends before lifting earnings higher.
The target price is raised to $26.70 from $26.30 and a Neutral rating retained.
BORAL LIMITED ((BLD)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Prior to reporting season results, Goldman Sachs notes building starts in Australia have been weaker-than-expected, but it's now thought the elevated backlog will take longer to unwind than previously forecast.
In the US, the broker has a more robust forecast for housing starts due to growing single-family 2024/25 starts. Multi-family starts in 2024 are expected to decline, but growth is anticipated in 2025.
From among Goldman's coverage, James Hardie Industries is considered best placed, with operating leverage under-appreciated by the wider market. The company has also been a beneficiary of normalising input costs in the 4Q.
As Boral has successfully executed a margin turnaround, the share price has significantly outperformed, and the broker downgrades its rating to Sell from Neutral.
The analyst feels recent margin expansion may be hard to sustain as residential starts in Australia wane, and infrastructure may have limited capacity for incremental growth.
The target rises to $4.90 from $4.70.
CSL LIMITED ((CSL)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Wilsons' takes a scalpel to CSL's earnings forecasts as the broker removes a $91 per share valuation for the cardiac drug CSL112, post the Phase 3 missing endpoint.
The broker notes to a strong 1H24 earnings report with a beat on both revenue and net profit, but considers the company is "over reliant" on IG.
Management retained FY24 net profit guidance of between US$2.9bn and US$3bn and re-affirmed double digit EPS growth over the medium term.
Wilsons is also downbeat on the Vifor acquisition and described the operation as a "starless division".
The stock is downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight and the target price lowered to $253.
ELDERS LIMITED ((ELD)) Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Moelis assesses more favourable weather conditions since October 2023. Above average rainfall for the east coast of Australia, Northern Territory and South Australia has boosted non-irrigated crops and livestock prices.
Also: imported agricultural chemical prices have remained steady for the last six months, providing a further boost to Elders.
Earnings per share forecasts are lifted by 7%, 6% and 4% for FY24 through to FY26, respectively, after the broker accounts for better livestock volumes, prices and cropping outcomes.
A Hold rating is maintained and the price target is raised to $9.44 from $7.92.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Wilsons | |
| 2 | JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC | Buy | Neutral | Jarden | |
| 3 | NICK SCALI LIMITED | Buy | Sell | Jarden | |
| Downgrade | |||||
| 4 | ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Jarden | |
| 5 | BORAL LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | Goldman Sachs | |
| 6 | CSL LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Wilsons | |
| 7 | ELDERS LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Moelis | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMC | Amcor | $13.85 | Jarden | 14.40 | 14.30 | 0.70% |
| ANZ | ANZ Bank | $28.41 | Jarden | 26.70 | 26.30 | 1.52% |
| AZJ | Aurizon Holdings | $3.98 | Goldman Sachs | 4.05 | 4.00 | 1.25% |
| Jarden | 3.95 | 3.80 | 3.95% | |||
| BLD | Boral | $5.90 | Goldman Sachs | 4.90 | 4.55 | 7.69% |
| Goldman Sachs | 5.40 | 4.55 | 18.68% | |||
| BPT | Beach Energy | $1.77 | Goldman Sachs | 1.67 | 1.66 | 0.60% |
| BRG | Breville Group | $26.23 | Goldman Sachs | 28.00 | 30.20 | -7.28% |
| Jarden | 23.60 | 23.80 | -0.84% | |||
| Petra Capital | 24.00 | 21.70 | 10.60% | |||
| BSL | BlueScope Steel | $22.38 | Jarden | 26.40 | 24.90 | 6.02% |
| CAR | CAR Group | $34.61 | Goldman Sachs | 33.00 | 32.00 | 3.13% |
| Jarden | 29.00 | 27.50 | 5.45% | |||
| CGC | Costa Group | $3.19 | Wilsons | N/A | 3.05 | -100.00% |
| CGF | Challenger | $7.20 | Jarden | 7.55 | 7.25 | 4.14% |
| CIP | Centuria Industrial REIT | $3.42 | Jarden | 3.60 | 3.35 | 7.46% |
| Moelis | 3.71 | 3.52 | 5.40% | |||
| CLW | Charter Hall Long WALE REIT | $3.84 | Jarden | 3.80 | 3.95 | -3.80% |
| COH | Cochlear | $336.69 | Jarden | 237.17 | 229.20 | 3.48% |
| CPU | Computershare | $26.37 | Jarden | 27.90 | 27.85 | 0.18% |
| CRD | Conrad Asia Energy | $0.93 | Wilsons | 2.41 | 2.52 | -4.37% |
| CSL | CSL | $286.40 | Jarden | 296.02 | 316.16 | -6.37% |
| Wilsons | 253.00 | 352.64 | -28.26% | |||
| CSR | CSR | $6.85 | Jarden | 6.60 | 6.00 | 10.00% |
| DRR | Deterra Royalties | $5.17 | Canaccord Genuity | 5.30 | 5.00 | 6.00% |
| DXI | Dexus Industria REIT | $2.91 | Moelis | 3.21 | 3.11 | 3.22% |
| ELD | Elders | $8.78 | Moelis | 9.44 | 7.92 | 19.19% |
| FBU | Fletcher Building | $3.24 | Goldman Sachs | 4.65 | 4.90 | -5.10% |
| Jarden | 6.13 | N/A | – | |||
| GDF | Garda Property | $1.21 | Moelis | 1.60 | 1.63 | -1.84% |
| GUD | G.U.D. Holdings | $11.14 | Wilsons | 13.29 | 12.66 | 4.98% |
| HUB | Hub24 | $37.49 | Jarden | 37.10 | 36.80 | 0.82% |
| JAN | Janison Education | $0.34 | Wilsons | 0.36 | 0.30 | 20.00% |
| JBH | JB Hi-Fi | $64.95 | Goldman Sachs | 56.50 | 54.10 | 4.44% |
| Jarden | 50.80 | 40.20 | 26.37% | |||
| JHX | James Hardie Industries | $57.60 | Jarden | 57.00 | 48.00 | 18.75% |
| LOV | Lovisa Holdings | $25.77 | Jarden | 23.79 | 23.20 | 2.54% |
| LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | $5.85 | Goldman Sachs | 7.20 | 7.50 | -4.00% |
| MGR | Mirvac Group | $2.31 | Jarden | 2.25 | 2.30 | -2.17% |
| MPL | Medibank Private | $3.80 | Goldman Sachs | 3.70 | 3.56 | 3.93% |
| MTS | Metcash | $3.59 | Jarden | 4.30 | 4.20 | 2.38% |
| NCK | Nick Scali | $15.44 | Jarden | 13.87 | 10.30 | 34.66% |
| NDO | Nido Education | $0.98 | Moelis | 1.40 | 1.34 | 4.48% |
| Wilsons | 1.41 | 1.32 | 6.82% | |||
| NHF | nib Holdings | $8.09 | Goldman Sachs | 8.50 | 8.40 | 1.19% |
| RGN | Region Group | $2.33 | Jarden | 2.50 | 2.65 | -5.66% |
| RIC | Ridley Corp | $2.46 | Moelis | 2.82 | 2.87 | -1.74% |
| Wilsons | 2.85 | 3.02 | -5.63% | |||
| RKN | Reckon | $0.60 | Petra Capital | 1.10 | 1.06 | 3.77% |
| RWC | Reliance Worldwide | $4.56 | Jarden | 4.10 | 3.95 | 3.80% |
| SEK | Seek | $25.02 | Jarden | 29.00 | 29.60 | -2.03% |
| SKC | SkyCity Entertainment | $1.85 | Jarden | 3.00 | N/A | – |
| SUN | Suncorp Group | $14.52 | Jarden | 15.25 | 15.10 | 0.99% |
| SYA | Sayona Mining | $0.05 | Petra Capital | 0.15 | 0.34 | -55.88% |
| TCL | Transurban Group | $12.97 | Jarden | 12.70 | 12.90 | -1.55% |
| TPW | Temple & Webster | $11.96 | Petra Capital | 12.00 | 9.20 | 30.43% |
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
A1M AIC MINES LIMITED
Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.29
Moelis rates ((A1M)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –
Moelis initiates coverage of copper producer AIC Mines with a Buy rating and 52c target price.
The broker holds a positive view on the copper price, particularly given China's lack of meaningful copper reserves, but says it's hard graft finding a domestic small-cap exposure on the ASX. Enter AIC Mines.
The company has acquired the Eloise mine in Queensland and added the nearby Jericho deposit after purchasing Demetallica ((DRM)) early last year.
Funding and a final investment decision have been secured for the latter project and commencement should derisk the operation, says Moelis.
This report was published on February 7, 2024.
Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.225
If A1M meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.37.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.18.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BSL BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED
Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $21.87
Jarden rates ((BSL)) as Overweight (2) –
Jarden has upgraded forecasts for BlueScope Steel, taking guidance from US steel companies' market updates and a meaningful increase in the US hot-rolled coil (HRC) spreads.
As per the broker's explanation, the US represents the company's largest geographic segment (now more than 50% of earnings). The US is also seen as BlueScope Steel's key growth region over the medium term.
Overweight rating retained. Target price shifts to $26.40 from $24.90.
This report was published on February 8, 2024.
Target price is $26.40 Current Price is $21.87 Difference: $4.53
If BSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.60, suggesting downside of -0.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 205.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.63.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 209.8, implying annual growth of -3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 206.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.59.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 217.7, implying annual growth of 3.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CIP CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT
REITs – Overnight Price: $3.32
Jarden rates ((CIP)) as Neutral (3) –
Jarden continues to believe Centuria Industrial REIT is in a good position to deliver more than 10% EBIT CAGR over the next three years from record re-leasing spreads and a growing development pipeline, even if demand for logistics is starting to normalise.
Following recent underperformance, the broker believes the shares look attractive trading on a -15% discount to Net Tangible Assets with a dividend yield of circa 5%, below the sector average.
Post the release of interim financials, the broker believes underlying leasing fundamentals and medium-term growth profile suggest an attractive risk-reward for a domestic pure play on logistics.
The growing development pipeline is seen as a potential source for significant upside in the medium term. Overweight. Target lifts to $3.60. Forecasts have been lifted.
This report was published on February 8, 2024.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: $0.28
If CIP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 2.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.19.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.20 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.86.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of 1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MMS MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE LIMITED
Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging – Overnight Price: $17.40
Canaccord Genuity rates ((MMS)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –
Canaccord Genuity initiates coverage on McMillan Shakespeare with a positive view, largely driven by strong forecast earnings growth, and specifically in novated leasing.
The novated leasing segment, explains the broker, has good momentum and industry-wide growth drivers that include strong demand for novated leases on electric vehicles and a carry-over excess vehicle pipeline that will start to unwind as national supply normalises.
The broker anticipates modest negative earnings per share growth from the company in FY25, a result of the South Australian government contract loss, ahead of double-digit earnings per share growth in FY26.
The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $19.60.
This report was published on February 7, 2024.
Target price is $19.60 Current Price is $17.40 Difference: $2.2
If MMS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.16, suggesting upside of 15.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 124.00 cents and EPS of 123.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.15.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 128.9, implying annual growth of 188.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 121.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.38.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.9, implying annual growth of 3.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
OCC ORTHOCELL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.39
Petra Capital rates ((OCC)) as Buy (1) –
Petra Capital highlights Orthocell's application for Remplir's approval in the Singapore market as significant.
Although the US remains a focus with in excess of $100m in revenue upside if Remplir is US approved, Singapore approval would nevertheless be a considerable achievement for the company, says the analyst, with potential to open up other markets, such as Vietnam.
There are no changes to earnings forecasts.
Buy rating and $1.28 target retained.
This report was published on February 15, 2024.
Target price is $1.28 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.895
If OCC meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 232% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.17.
Forecast for FY25:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.83.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RKN RECKON LIMITED
Accountancy – Overnight Price: $0.59
Petra Capital rates ((RKN)) as Buy (1) –
Reckon reported an 18.5% beat on net profit against Petra Capital's forecasts for FY23. Revenue was in line with the broker's forecast.
The Legal Group performed well but total cloud users declined -10% on the previous period as the free payroll app was discontinued in the Business Group.
The broker raises the FY24 profit forecast by 12.6% and FY25 EBITDA forecast by 3.8%.
The target price is raised 5 cents to $1.10 and the Buy rating unchanged.
This report was published on February 14, 2024.
Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.505
If RKN meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 4.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.51.
Forecast for FY25:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 4.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.14.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SIQ SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LIMITED
Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging – Overnight Price: $9.55
Canaccord Genuity rates ((SIQ)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –
Canaccord Genuity initiates coverage on Smartgroup Corp with a positive view, largely driven by strong forecast earnings growth, and specifically in novated leasing.
The novated leasing segment, explains the broker, has good momentum and industry-wide growth drivers that include strong demand for novated leases on electric vehicles and a carry-over excess vehicle pipeline that will start to unwind as national supply normalises.
The broker expects Smartgroup Corp's recent material contract win with the South Australian government will contribute to earnings from the second half, estimating a $12m full year revenue impact.
The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $10.20.
This report was published on February 7, 2024.
Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $9.55 Difference: $0.65
If SIQ meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.49, suggesting downside of -0.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.49.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of 4.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.
Forecast for FY24:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.05.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.4, implying annual growth of 10.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANZ - ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CSL - CSL LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ELD - ELDERS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JHX - JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NCK - NICK SCALI LIMITED