Weekly Reports | Apr 12 2024
This story features CLOVER CORPORATION LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CLV
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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CLOVER CORPORATION LIMITED ((CLV)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Outperform by Taylor Collison.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Taylor Collison upgrades its rating for Clover to Speculative Buy from Overweight noting the company is an attractive acquisition target for a larger company, as evidenced by all of its competitors operating as divisions in larger businesses.
Clover is the world leader in the manufacture of micro-encapsulated Docosahexaenoic Acid (DHA), which the broker explains is predominantly sold to infant formula manufacturers.
The company's 1H revenue (results on March 20) of $27.3m was a miss against the analyst's $32m forecast due to issues in the Chinese (change of standards) and Middle Eastern markets (related to inventories from a manufacturer of infant formula).
No target price is mentioned in Taylor Collison's latest research.
HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Wilsons upgrades EPS forecasts for Hub24 by 1-2% driven by mark-to-market upgrades and some small increases to forecasts for gross inflows, reflecting periods of forced migrations from peers.
Over the next two years, the broker forecasts close to $100bn in funds under administration (FUA) will be forcibly moved between incumbent Platforms, providing a tailwind for Hub24 to achieve FUA of over $100bn.
Wilsons upgrades its rating to Overweight from Market Weight and lifts its target to $45.32 from $42.63.
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CHAMPION IRON LIMITED ((CIA)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden downgrades its rating for Champion Iron to Overweight from Buy and reduces the target to $7.76 from $9.24 largely due to the impact on forecasts of a further softening for iron ore prices.
Management has also telegraphed a soft quarter-on-quarter outcome for the upcoming March quarter release on April 23, as optimisation/maintenance will impact on production.
Jarden continues to like both Champion Iron's strategic differentiation and organic growth optionality. However, iron ore benchmarks are expected to correct further due to both China's economic challenges and the looming Simandou development in the Republic of Guinea.
FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED ((FLT)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Competition in the small and medium enterprise corporate travel segment appears to be intensifying, with potential to drive margin disappointment for Flight Centre Travel shareholders, says Goldman Sachs.
The broker notes there is increasing focus on proprietary technology to drive a competitive advantage.
Coupled with moderating corporate travel, now expected to plateau at around 75% of pre-covid demand, Goldman Sachs has lowered its expectations for Flight Centre Travel's corporate segment, now forecasting profit before tax and total transaction value margins of 2.1% and 2.2%.
The rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral and the target price decreases to $18.30 from $20.10.
ORECORP LIMITED ((ORR)) Downgrade to Hold from Spec Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Perseus Mining has won the battle for OreCorp and Canaccord Genuity notes its equity ownership has now risen beyond 50% while the offer has been declared unconditional.
The chances for a competing offer are now considered pretty close to zero.
OreCorp's key asset, the Nyanzaga gold project, located in Tanzania, is seen as one of the higher quality gold developments on the ASX.
Canaccord Genuity has downgraded its rating for OreCorp to Hold from Speculative Buy and lifted the price target to $1.20, in line with the bidder's offer.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | CLOVER CORPORATION LIMITED | Buy | Buy | Taylor Collison | |
| 2 | HUB24 LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Wilsons | |
| Downgrade | |||||
| 3 | CHAMPION IRON LIMITED | Buy | Buy | Jarden | |
| 4 | FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | Goldman Sachs | |
| 5 | ORECORP LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Canaccord Genuity | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3PL | 3P Learning | $1.25 | Taylor Collison | 1.64 | 1.46 | 12.33% |
| A1M | AIC Mines | $0.39 | Moelis | 0.56 | 0.52 | 7.69% |
| ALK | Alkane Resources | $0.67 | Moelis | 1.00 | 0.95 | 5.26% |
| Petra Capital | 1.16 | 1.02 | 13.73% | |||
| AMP | AMP | $1.18 | Jarden | 1.20 | 1.15 | 4.35% |
| APM | APM Human Services International | $1.24 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.30 | 2.00 | -35.00% |
| ASN | Anson Resources | $0.11 | Petra Capital | 0.49 | 0.71 | -30.99% |
| ASX | ASX | $63.60 | Jarden | 62.70 | 62.10 | 0.97% |
| Jarden | 63.30 | 62.10 | 1.93% | |||
| AUB | AUB Group | $28.98 | Jarden | 33.85 | 32.95 | 2.73% |
| AVA | Ava Risk | $0.14 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.30 | 0.33 | -9.09% |
| Petra Capital | 0.35 | 0.36 | -2.78% | |||
| BBN | Baby Bunting | $1.93 | Wilsons | 2.40 | 2.00 | 20.00% |
| BKT | Black Rock Mining | $0.07 | Petra Capital | 0.15 | 0.16 | -6.25% |
| BMN | Bannerman Energy | $3.99 | Canaccord Genuity | 4.62 | 3.71 | 24.53% |
| BOE | Boss Energy | $4.91 | Canaccord Genuity | 5.25 | 4.73 | 10.99% |
| Canaccord Genuity | 6.00 | 4.73 | 26.85% | |||
| BOQ | Bank of Queensland | $5.90 | Goldman Sachs | 5.04 | 5.00 | 0.80% |
| BPT | Beach Energy | $1.59 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.65 | 1.60 | 3.12% |
| Jarden | 1.70 | 1.85 | -8.11% | |||
| Wilsons | 1.87 | 1.96 | -4.59% | |||
| CIA | Champion Iron | $6.83 | Jarden | 7.76 | 9.24 | -16.02% |
| CLV | Clover | $0.51 | Taylor Collison | N/A | 0.95 | -100.00% |
| CMM | Capricorn Metals | $5.35 | Jarden | 5.07 | 4.75 | 6.74% |
| CNB | Carnaby Resources | $0.61 | Petra Capital | 1.45 | 1.50 | -3.33% |
| COE | Cooper Energy | $0.23 | Jarden | 0.24 | 0.19 | 26.32% |
| CSL | CSL | $280.43 | Wilsons | 253.29 | 253.00 | 0.11% |
| CU6 | Clarity Pharmaceuticals | $2.72 | Wilsons | 3.12 | 3.05 | 2.30% |
| CXO | Core Lithium | $0.16 | Goldman Sachs | 0.12 | 0.13 | -7.69% |
| DVP | Develop Global | $2.24 | Canaccord Genuity | 4.65 | 5.00 | -7.00% |
| DYL | Deep Yellow | $1.44 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.92 | 1.53 | 25.49% |
| EVN | Evolution Mining | $4.02 | Jarden | 3.12 | 3.00 | 4.00% |
| FLT | Flight Centre Travel | $21.29 | Goldman Sachs | 18.30 | 20.10 | -8.96% |
| GMD | Genesis Minerals | $1.98 | Moelis | 2.20 | 1.70 | 29.41% |
| GOR | Gold Road Resources | $1.80 | Moelis | 1.70 | 1.50 | 13.33% |
| GQG | GQG Partners | $2.40 | Goldman Sachs | 2.73 | 2.40 | 13.75% |
| HUB | Hub24 | $40.59 | Jarden | 41.75 | 38.50 | 8.44% |
| Wilsons | 45.32 | 42.63 | 6.31% | |||
| IAG | Insurance Australia Group | $6.38 | Goldman Sachs | 6.30 | 6.00 | 5.00% |
| Jarden | 6.80 | 6.95 | -2.16% | |||
| IFL | Insignia Financial | $2.50 | Jarden | 3.00 | 2.80 | 7.14% |
| IGO | IGO | $7.57 | Goldman Sachs | 7.50 | 8.00 | -6.25% |
| LEL | Lithium Energy | $0.55 | Petra Capital | 1.84 | 1.86 | -1.08% |
| LIN | Lindian Resources | $0.14 | Petra Capital | 0.59 | 0.61 | -3.28% |
| LOT | Lotus Resources | $0.43 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.54 | 0.45 | 20.00% |
| LTR | Liontown Resources | $1.31 | Goldman Sachs | 1.35 | 1.45 | -6.90% |
| MFG | Magellan Financial | $9.34 | Goldman Sachs | 9.10 | 8.75 | 4.00% |
| Jarden | 9.20 | 8.40 | 9.52% | |||
| MMI | Metro Mining | $0.04 | Petra Capital | 0.09 | 0.05 | 91.49% |
| MPL | Medibank Private | $3.70 | Jarden | 3.80 | 3.75 | 1.33% |
| NHF | nib Holdings | $7.65 | Jarden | 8.00 | 7.75 | 3.23% |
| NWL | Netwealth Group | $19.91 | Jarden | 17.00 | 15.55 | 9.32% |
| Wilsons | 22.03 | 20.50 | 7.46% | |||
| OBM | Ora Banda Mining | $0.33 | Moelis | 0.42 | 0.35 | 20.00% |
| ORA | Orora | $2.19 | Goldman Sachs | 3.00 | 3.40 | -11.76% |
| Jarden | 2.50 | 3.20 | -21.88% | |||
| ORR | OreCorp | $0.58 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.20 | 1.25 | -4.00% |
| PDN | Paladin Energy | $15.30 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.55 | 1.30 | 19.23% |
| PEN | Peninsula Energy | $0.11 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.22 | 0.18 | 22.22% |
| PNR | Pantoro | $0.08 | Petra Capital | 0.17 | 0.13 | 30.77% |
| POS | Poseidon Nickel | $0.01 | Petra Capital | 0.03 | 0.08 | -60.00% |
| PPT | Perpetual | $24.91 | Jarden | 28.10 | 26.90 | 4.46% |
| PRU | Perseus Mining | $2.34 | Canaccord Genuity | 3.15 | 2.45 | 28.57% |
| QBE | QBE Insurance | $17.69 | Goldman Sachs | 20.58 | 18.65 | 10.35% |
| Jarden | 20.75 | 19.10 | 8.64% | |||
| QPM | Queensland Pacific Metals | $0.04 | Petra Capital | 0.15 | 0.24 | -37.50% |
| RED | Red 5 | $0.42 | Moelis | 0.48 | 0.40 | 20.00% |
| Petra Capital | 0.47 | 0.42 | 11.90% | |||
| Petra Capital | 0.49 | 0.42 | 16.67% | |||
| RFG | Retail Food | $0.07 | Petra Capital | 0.11 | 0.11 | -4.55% |
| SFX | Sheffield Resources | $0.56 | Petra Capital | 1.27 | 1.26 | 0.79% |
| SLR | Silver Lake Resources | $1.35 | Moelis | 1.70 | 1.50 | 13.33% |
| SLX | Silex Systems | $5.20 | Canaccord Genuity | 6.21 | 5.42 | 14.58% |
| SMR | Stanmore Resources | $3.23 | Petra Capital | 5.30 | 5.52 | -3.99% |
| STX | Strike Energy | $0.24 | Petra Capital | 0.26 | 0.31 | -16.13% |
| SUN | Suncorp Group | $16.15 | Goldman Sachs | 17.54 | 16.25 | 7.94% |
| TIE | Tietto Minerals | $0.65 | Petra Capital | 1.06 | 0.75 | 41.33% |
| TLG | Talga Group | $0.77 | Petra Capital | 1.19 | 2.70 | -55.93% |
| TWE | Treasury Wine Estates | $12.45 | Jarden | 14.50 | 12.90 | 12.40% |
| WES | Wesfarmers | $66.58 | Goldman Sachs | 68.80 | 66.00 | 4.24% |
| WGX | Westgold Resources | $2.09 | Petra Capital | 2.33 | 2.42 | -3.72% |
| Petra Capital | 3.19 | 2.42 | 31.82% | |||
| WIN | Widgie Nickel | $0.06 | Petra Capital | 0.20 | 0.40 | -50.00% |
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
AVA AVA RISK GROUP LIMITED
Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $0.14
Canaccord Genuity rates ((AVA)) as Buy (1) –
Ava Risk's three-year growth plans suggest revenues are poised to at least double by then, Canaccord Genuity points out. The most positive scenario has even more upside in mind.
The broker has adopted a more conservative approach, placing its forecasts near the bottom end of the suggested trajectory guidance. This, the broker highlights, still suggests "substantial" growth lays ahead.
Buy rating retained while a re-modeling of the fresh input has sliced off -3c from the broker's valuation; price target tumbles to 30c from 33c.
This report was published on April 9, 2024.
Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.165
If AVA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 125.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.45.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.44.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BMN BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED
Uranium – Overnight Price: $3.85
Canaccord Genuity rates ((BMN)) as Speculative Buy (1) –
The uranium market will remain in a structural deficit through 2027, forecasts Canaccord Genuity. A return to a balanced market will be highly reliant on the advancement of greenfield projects, which the broker points out remain beset with risks.
The broker upgrades its demand forecasts for uranium to incorporate new reactor builds (in China/India), extensions of existing operating lives, and restarts of idled reactors.
The analysts also highlight recent announcements by major companies like Google and Microsoft which are looking at deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs) as a way to power their AI ambitions.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts an average price of US$105/lb over FY24, a 15% increase on the prior estimate, while the long-term price assumption rises to US$90/lb from US$75-$80/lb.
The Speculative Buy rating is maintained for Bannerman Energy and the target increased to $4.62 from $3.71. Operations are located in a uranium-friendly jurisdiction and the resource is significant (over 200mlb), highlights the broker.
This report was published on April 9, 2024.
Target price is $4.62 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $0.77
If BMN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DVP DEVELOP GLOBAL LIMITED
Industrial Metals – Overnight Price: $2.28
Canaccord Genuity rates ((DVP)) as Speculative Buy (1) –
Develop Global has updated its mine plan for Woodlawn and Canaccord Genuity highlights low costs, a rapid restart and a significantly de-risked production outlook are all key positives.
The broker seems enthusiastic, also highlighting the majority of the mining, processing, and ancillary facilities are already in place. The plan points to first production by H2 FY25.
Speculative Buy rating retained. The target price has fallen to $4.65 (from $5) on incorporation of the updated plan. At current spot prices, the broker highlights, the price target would increase to $5.05.
This report was published on April 10, 2024.
Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $2.37
If DVP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 104% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 228.00.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.73.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LRK LARK DISTILLING CO. LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $1.17
Canaccord Genuity rates ((LRK)) as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) –
Canaccord Genuity has initiated coverage of Lark Distilling, producer of a luxury whisky brand in Australia, with a Speculative Buy rating and $1.60 price target.
The broker posits Lark offers a unique investment opportunity on the ASX with a strong medium-term growth profile. A clear strategy by the board and management team could evolve the brand and drive strong adoption in offshore markets, suggests the broker.
On Canaccord Genuity's forecasts, Lark is expected to see strong double-digit revenue growth in FY25, with international markets potentially accounting for 50% of group sales by FY27.
The broker states the company’s unique moat, including a 30-plus year brand history and a 2.4m litre whisky bank, supports the current market capitalisation.
This report was published on April 10, 2024.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.43
If LRK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 19.50.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 19.50.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CIA - CHAMPION IRON LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CLV - CLOVER CORPORATION LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FLT - FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HUB - HUB24 LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ORR - ORECORP LIMITED