Weekly Reports | Apr 19 2024
This story features CORE LITHIUM LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CXO
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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CORE LITHIUM LIMITED ((CXO)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
All key lithium products saw pricing fall again in the March quarter, notes Canaccord Genuity, driven by ongoing soft demand as purchasers run down their inventories, and due to continued supply additions.
The broker recently suggested lithium pricing has bottomed after noting a recovery in the spodumene price towards the back end of the March quarter. No changes are made to Canaccord's lithium price forecasts.
The rating for Core Lithium is upgraded to Hold from Sell on valuation and the target rises to 15c from 14c. The analysts believe the wet season has likely negatively impacted the Finniss operations.
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AVITA MEDICAL INC ((AVH)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0
With Avita Medical slashing its first quarter guidance to US$11.0-11.3m, Wilsons has downgraded on the stock claiming "plain misjudgement failing to incorporate the longer value analysis committee" from the company.
As per the broker, the company's guidance downgrade suggests a a shortfall of 600 kits in the first quarter, which Wilsons believes may reflect lowering hospital stock piles in anticipation of the potential approval of RECELL GO in May.
However, the broker notes no evidence has emerged to back up this thesis, with the revenue shortfall chalked up to a lack of conversion of new trauma accounts.
The rating is downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight and the target price decreases to $3.03 from $5.42.
DATA#3 LIMITED. ((DTL)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden downgrades Data#3 to Overweight from Buy, while reducing the target price to $8.65 from $9.15.
The broker acknowledges Data#3's long-term strength, especially as a leading reseller of Microsoft software in Australia, but raises concerns about near-term cyclical risks to service revenues and competitive pressures impacting margins.
Excess capacity and deferred client spending lead to downgraded EPS forecasts for FY25 and FY26. The broker no longer sees potential for near-term re-rating given the adjustments in earnings expectations and market conditions.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | CORE LITHIUM LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Canaccord Genuity | |
| Downgrade | |||||
| 2 | AVITA MEDICAL INC | Neutral | Buy | Wilsons | |
| 3 | DATA#3 LIMITED. | Buy | Buy | Jarden | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASB | Austal | $2.33 | Petra Capital | 3.14 | 3.08 | 1.95% |
| AVH | Avita Medical | $2.95 | Wilsons | 3.03 | 5.42 | -44.10% |
| BLD | Boral | $5.73 | Jarden | 6.30 | 5.90 | 6.78% |
| BPT | Beach Energy | $1.62 | Jarden | 1.75 | 1.70 | 2.94% |
| BSL | BlueScope Steel | $23.10 | Jarden | 23.90 | 24.60 | -2.85% |
| CGF | Challenger | $6.82 | Jarden | 7.50 | 7.55 | -0.66% |
| CPU | Computershare | $27.95 | Jarden | 29.20 | 27.90 | 4.66% |
| CTT | Cettire | $3.20 | Petra Capital | 5.10 | 4.15 | 22.89% |
| CXO | Core Lithium | $0.15 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.15 | 0.14 | 7.14% |
| DMP | Domino's Pizza Enterprises | $37.26 | Jarden | 48.00 | 49.00 | -2.04% |
| DTL | Data#3 | $7.96 | Jarden | 8.65 | 9.15 | -5.46% |
| ELD | Elders | $8.53 | Wilsons | 8.33 | 8.26 | 0.85% |
| EQT | EQT Holdings | $30.10 | Wilsons | 33.90 | 31.50 | 7.62% |
| GMD | Genesis Minerals | $1.83 | Canaccord Genuity | 2.40 | 2.60 | -7.69% |
| HUB | Hub24 | $39.69 | Moelis | 41.50 | 41.99 | -1.17% |
| Wilsons | 44.69 | 45.32 | -1.39% | |||
| IAG | Insurance Australia Group | $6.43 | Goldman Sachs | 6.30 | 6.00 | 5.00% |
| IEL | IDP Education | $16.82 | Goldman Sachs | 25.30 | 26.60 | -4.89% |
| IPH | IPH | $6.17 | Canaccord Genuity | 11.55 | 11.60 | -0.43% |
| KAR | Karoon Energy | $2.22 | Jarden | 2.50 | 2.40 | 4.17% |
| ORG | Origin Energy | $9.83 | Jarden | 9.75 | 9.35 | 4.28% |
| PME | Pro Medicus | $102.09 | Goldman Sachs | 134.00 | 88.00 | 52.27% |
| QBE | QBE Insurance | $17.48 | Goldman Sachs | 20.58 | 18.65 | 10.35% |
| QOR | Qoria | $0.43 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.50 | 0.40 | 25.00% |
| Wilsons | 0.48 | 0.37 | 29.73% | |||
| RMD | ResMed | $27.63 | Jarden | 31.33 | 31.22 | 0.35% |
| RWC | Reliance Worldwide | $5.18 | Jarden | 5.25 | 5.30 | -0.94% |
| SFR | Sandfire Resources | $9.06 | Wilsons | 9.90 | 8.45 | 17.16% |
| STO | Santos | $7.69 | Jarden | 8.20 | 8.00 | 2.50% |
| SUN | Suncorp Group | $16.17 | Goldman Sachs | 17.54 | 16.25 | 7.94% |
| WDS | Woodside Energy | $29.45 | Jarden | 30.00 | 29.00 | 3.45% |
| WGX | Westgold Resources | $2.31 | Canaccord Genuity | 2.65 | 2.75 | -3.64% |
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
CTT CETTIRE LIMITED
Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $3.15
Petra Capital rates ((CTT)) as Buy (1) –
Petra Capital assesses a strong 3Q update by Cettire with management also confirming a 4Q launch into China, opening up a significant new growth frontier.
For the 3Q, the analyst highlights an acceleration of revenue in February/March over January with active customers rising by 84% year-on-year due to an ongoing strong contribution from repeat customers.
The broker notes 3Q revenue growth was underpinned by ongoing broad-based momentum in both Established and Emerging Markets, while the Delivered margin remained above 20%.
The broker's Buy rating and $5.10 target price are retained.
This report was published on April 15, 2024.
Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: $1.95
If CTT meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.45.
Forecast for FY25:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.90.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IEL IDP EDUCATION LIMITED
Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $16.03
Goldman Sachs rates ((IEL)) as Buy (1) –
Goldman Sachs believes FY25 will represent the peak of industry headwinds and, hence, the trough for IDP Education's volumes and earnings. The company's structural growth outlook and business quality remain unchanged, in the broker's view.
Based on industry feedback, Goldman believes Australian university volumes are still growing, despite negative newsflow. Also, detail on Canadian cap implementation implies the impact on the company should be well below the -28% headline visa reduction.
Due to the Canadian cap, the analysts lowers overall IELTS volumes forecasts for FY24 and FY25 by -9% and -10%, respectively.
The Buy rating is maintained and the target lowered to $25.30 from $26.60.
This report was published on April 15, 2024.
Target price is $25.30 Current Price is $16.03 Difference: $9.27
If IEL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.33, suggesting upside of 51.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.44.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.3, implying annual growth of 16.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.93.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.7, implying annual growth of 13.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MAC METALS ACQUISITION LIMITED
Copper – Overnight Price: $21.00
Wilsons rates ((MAC)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) –
Wilsons initiates coverage on Metals Acquisition, which is listed on both the ASX and the NYSE, with an Overweight rating and $25 target price.
The company operates one of Australia’s longest running and highest-grade mines, highlights the broker, and joins a short list of pure play, copper producers in the domestic market after listing on the ASX in February this year.
Total copper production at Metals Acquisition's CSA mine, acquired from Glencore in 2023, is expected to grow to more than 50ktpa. As the mine infrastructure is largely already established, the analysts expect relatively little capex requirements.
Management points out the mine lacked attention, as part of the larger Glencore portfolio, and experienced a deterioration in productivity, production and cost performance in recent years.
This report was published on April 12, 2024.
Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $21.00 Difference: $4
If MAC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 77.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.07.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 125.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.77.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PME PRO MEDICUS LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $100.18
Goldman Sachs rates ((PME)) as Buy (1) –
Goldman Sachs has reinitiated coverage on Pro Medicus, finding the company the "clear incumbent technology leader in a growing market".
As per the broker, the company's Visage 7 technology is core to many health institutions and provides efficiency gains in an industry where demand continues to grow and shortages persist. Compared to peers, the technology provides speed and cloud capability advantages.
The broker considers Pro Medicus well positioned into FY25 given large and high profile contracts.
The broker reinitiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $134.00.
This report was published on April 17, 2024.
Target price is $134.00 Current Price is $100.18 Difference: $33.82
If PME meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $78.90, suggesting downside of -21.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 135.38.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.7, implying annual growth of 26.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 135.9.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 97.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 103.28.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.5, implying annual growth of 30.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 103.8.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
QOR QORIA LIMITED
Software & Services – Overnight Price: $0.42
Canaccord Genuity rates ((QOR)) as Buy (1) –
Canaccord Genuity acknowledges Qoria's enhanced financial guidance for FY24, reflecting an expected early achievement of cash EBITDA breakeven, due to stronger than anticipated business performance.
Management's upgrade follows a notable increase in the annual recurring revenue (ARR) forecast for FY24, marking an upward revision from initial estimates.
Despite the increased investment in capitalised costs, there is no change to cash forecasts. Canaccord Genuity sees significant structural tailwinds for Qoria's consumer products, which are likely to drive future growth.
Canaccord Genuity retains a Buy rating on Qoria with a stable target price of $0.50.
This report was published on April 16, 2024.
Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.075
If QOR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.63.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.25.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AVH - AVITA MEDICAL INC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CXO - CORE LITHIUM LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DTL - DATA#3 LIMITED.