Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Apr 24, 2024

This story features AIC MINES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A1M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A1M   BHP   BOQ   CYG   DSE   FEX   GMD   KAR   ORA   QUB   RXM   STO  

A1M    AIC MINES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.46

Moelis rates ((A1M)) as Buy (1) –

While AIC Mines left Moelis disappointed with its third quarter production and sales results, the broker considers the company's full year to be tracking well, noting weather events impacted on operations during the period.

The result was still solid, says the broker, with the company reporting still production of 3,066 tonnes of copper and sales of 2,674 tonnes of copper.

An update on the Elouise asset was also included, with resource and reserves increasing by 13% and 10% respectively.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to 55 cents from 53 cents.

This report was published on April 19, 2024.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.095
If A1M meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.50.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP    BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $45.50

Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) –

Iron ore and copper production in the 3Q for BHP Group beat Goldman Sachs forecasts by 2%, while iron ore shipments were 
in line with consensus, though beating the broker's estimate by some 5%.

The disappointment came through met coal, where production missed the broker's forecast by -17%. Management has now downgraded met coal guidance for FY24.

The target price falls to $49 from $49.40 and the Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on April 19, 2024.

Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $45.50 Difference: $3.5
If BHP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $45.13, suggesting downside of -0.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 216.23 cents and EPS of 392.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 408.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 232.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 191.87 cents and EPS of 347.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 430.6, implying annual growth of 5.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 246.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOQ    BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $6.19

Goldman Sachs rates ((BOQ)) as Sell (5) –

Bank of Queensland's1H24 cash earnings of $172m, -33% on year-on-year, exceeded Goldman Sachs' estimates by 12%, largely due to lower than expected expenses.

Pre-provision Operating Profit (PPOP) was in line. Despite an interim dividend of 17c, beating the broker's forecast by 1c, Goldman Sachs notes increased risk due to potential pressures on margin compression and the high execution risk in the regional bank's transformation program, which aims to reduce costs through digitisation.

Sell rating retained. Target lifts to $5.44 from $5.04.

This report was published on April 18, 2024.

Target price is $5.44 Current Price is $6.19 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting downside of -7.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.3, implying annual growth of 137.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.5, implying annual growth of 2.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CYG    COVENTRY GROUP LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $1.58

Petra Capital rates ((CYG)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital reiterates its Buy recommendation for Coventry Group, raising the 12-month target price to $2.50 from $2.29.

This upward adjustment follows the acquisition of Steelmasters, a provider of fasteners and industrial supply products with a 12-store network across Australia and New Zealand.

The broker says this acquisition, valued at NZ$45m, enhances the company's market position and provides opportunities for increased margin expansion.

Management's FY24 EBITDA guidance is in the range of $19m to $20m, below Petra Capital's previous forecast of $20.8m due to ongoing weakness in New Zealand and Tasmania. Forecasts have been reduced in response.

This report was published on April 22, 2024.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.92
If CYG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 10.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.91.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.14.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DSE    DROPSUITE LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $0.28

Petra Capital rates ((DSE)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital reiterates its Buy rating on Dropsuite while maintaining its 12-month target price at $0.32.

The broker highlights the 1Q24 update indicates a business growing faster than the broader market, despite a lower-than-expected revenue run rate.

A decline in net user gain (73,000 versus 109,000 estimated) caused a downward revision to Dropsuite's annual recurring revenue (ARR) forecast to US$29.9m from US$30.7m.

Despite this setback, the trend remains positive, with ARR increasing by 7% in US dollars and 9% in Australian dollars compared to the previous quarter.

The potential risks identified include higher customer churn due to competitive pressures, most notably in the Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region.

This report was published on April 22, 2024.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.045
If DSE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 91.67.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 91.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FEX    FENIX RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $0.28

Petra Capital rates ((FEX)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital has lifted its target price to $0.43 from $0.42 alongside an unchanged Buy rating for Fenix Resources, following the release of "strong" March quarter statistics, a trigger for higher forecasts.

The iron ore producer reported consistent production and sales from its Iron Ridge Mine, the broker comments, with sales of 357kt exceeding estimates of 350kt.

Despite the strong operational performance, Petra Capital notes a potential decrease in margins, with Iron Ridge's all-in sustaining cost (AISC) forecast to fall to US$26/dmt (-23%) due to a projected decline in iron ore prices to US$109/dmt for June 2024.

The report also highlights the ongoing development of the Beebyn-W11 and Shine Iron Ore Mines, with mining expected to commence by end-2024 and end-2026, respectively.

This report was published on April 22, 2024.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.145
If FEX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.52.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.20 cents and EPS of 6.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.32.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMD    GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.75

Moelis rates ((GMD)) as Hold (3) –

A softer than expected third quarter from Genesis Minerals says Moelis, with the company reporting gold production of 30,500 ounces at an all in sustaining cost of $2,497 per ounce, and sales of 29,300 ounces at an average price of $3,124 per ounce. 

Genesis Minerals explained the softer output as the result of a legacy toll-treating agreement that the company was obligated to allocate mill capacity to. 

As per the broker, the conclusion of third-party treatment agreements coupled with a rising gold price should generate additional cash flow.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.15 from $2.20.

This report was published on April 21, 2024.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.405
If GMD meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 11.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of 72.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR    KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $2.00

Wilsons rates ((KAR)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons maintains its Overweight rating on Karoon Energy and price target of $2.71, following the company's March quarter production update.

Production guidance for 2024 has been adjusted downward to 10.5–12.5 mmboe from 11.5–13.5 mmboe due to production issues at Who Dat, where the operator is minimising gas production amid low Henry Hub prices.

The announcement indicates sales (NRI) of US$196m and production of 2.94 mmboe, with sales volumes -7% below Wilsons' estimates due to lower oil prices and slightly lower sales volumes.

This report was published on April 22, 2024.

Target price is $2.71 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.71
If KAR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 32.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 41.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 51.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.2, implying annual growth of -15.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA    ORORA LIMITED

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $2.18

Jarden rates ((ORA)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden maintains its Overweight rating on Orora with a target price of $2.50 post investor briefings. Despite challenges in 2H24 and low visibility into 1H25, Jarden makes no changes to forecasts.

Among the points highlighted, the broker believes network benefits from Saverglass are more apparent, demonstrating significant intellectual property and international network strength.

Asa per Jarden, Saverglass's UAE facility has positive production economics, potentially allowing offshoring of Australasian glass operations in the medium term. This could lower costs for Orora in the face of declining glass demand in Australia, the broker explains.

This report was published on April 18, 2024.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.32
If ORA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 23.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.30 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of -19.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.3, implying annual growth of 4.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB    QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $3.36

Goldman Sachs rates ((QUB)) as Re-initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs has re-initiated coverage on Qube Holdings, with our archive showing active research on  the company ceased back in 2021.

Research resumes with a Buy rating and $3.70 price target. Remarkable, as back in 2021 that target was set at $3.72.

The broker's analysis attributes Qube's positive outlook to its diversified business model, delivering GDP-plus growth in revenue and earnings.

The report highlights several factors contributing to this optimistic view, including the receding uncertainty over the Moorebank project, anticipated to start contributing to revenue in the coming years.

Goldman Sachs also notes the reduced margin volatility and increased earnings predictability over the last 3-5 years, with ongoing capital expenditures set to support stable growth.

This report was published on April 18, 2024.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $0.34
If QUB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.61, suggesting upside of 7.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 14.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.1, implying annual growth of 41.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.65 cents and EPS of 14.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RXM    REX MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.22

Moelis rates ((RXM)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Moelis has initiated with a Buy rating on Rex Minerals and a 12-month price target of $0.50/share.

The positive initiation reflects the potential of the Hillside copper-gold project in South Australia, explains the broker, which is fully permitted and expected to produce circa 40kt copper and 30koz gold annually for an initial 11-year mine life.

Moelis sees this project having longer-term potential, suggesting production could continue for 20+ years, if extended further.

This report was published on April 22, 2024.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.28
If RXM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 127% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.46.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO    SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $7.71

Jarden rates ((STO)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden maintains its Overweight rating on Santos, lowering its 12-month price target to $8.15 from $8.20. Despite reduced forecasts for PNG, Santos recorded stronger-than-expected Free Cash Flow (FCF) and domestic gas prices, partly offsetting other declines.

The broker reports weather-related delays, maintenance, and natural field decline caused a -7% drop in production, missing expectations by -3%.

Nonetheless, FCF generation of $692m beat the broker's estimate of around $500m and the prior quarter's $540m.

This report was published on April 18, 2024.

Target price is $8.15 Current Price is $7.71 Difference: $0.44
If STO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.99, suggesting upside of 16.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.46 cents and EPS of 54.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.93 cents and EPS of 44.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.6, implying annual growth of 9.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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