Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 08, 2024

This story features ARGOSY MINERALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AGY

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AGY   ALK   ANG   ARX   COL   CRN   IGO   IPD   MAC   OCC   ORG   PYC   QPM   SDR   SFR (2)   SFX   SKO   TPG  

AGY    ARGOSY MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.12

Petra Capital rates ((AGY)) as Buy (1) –

Approvals are now in place for Argosy Minerals to develop the 10ktpa expansion at the Rincon lithium project in Salta, Argentina.

This is a key de-risking event for management's growth strategy and allows offtake and financing discussions to accelerate, explains Petra Capital. The expansion is expected to lift production capacity to 12ktpa of battery quality lithium carbonate.

At the existing operation, should continuous production occur in the current quarter, the analyst expects the share price will re-rate.

The Buy rating and 31c target are maintained.

This report was published on May 1, 2024.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.185
If AGY meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 148% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.86.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.86.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALK    ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.60

Petra Capital rates ((ALK)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital lowers its target for Petra Capital to $1.06 from $1.16 following March quarter gold production of 10.9koz at a cost (AISC) of $2,454/oz compared to the broker's forecast for 16koz at $2,079/oz.

The broker explains the miss was largely due to poor recoveries from ore mined at the Caloma Two underground at the Tomingley Gold Operations (TGO) due to the presence of carbonaceous materials. This area has now been mined through.

The first production stope at the Roswell underground mine was blasted on April 22, and management is guiding to a significant production uplift to around 20koz in the June quarter.

The Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on May 1, 2024.

Target price is $1.06 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.46
If ALK meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.79.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.11.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANG    AUSTIN ENGINEERING LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.51

Petra Capital rates ((ANG)) as Buy (1) –

Risks remain to the upside and Austin Engineering is well placed to deliver further EPS growth, suggests Petra Capital, with the AustBuy program a key upcoming catalyst.

Asia-Pacific is poised to be a significant contributor to near-term earnings, notes the broker, due to an anticipated margin recovery. 

The analyst also expects further strong growth across both the North America and South America segments, reflecting stable end market demand, increased OEM order flows, and market share gains.

Buy rating is reiterated. Target rises to 60c from 52.

This report was published on May 1, 2024.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.09
If ANG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.81.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 6.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.85.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARX    AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.53

Wilsons rates ((ARX)) as Overweight (1) –

In a good sign for revenue growth in FY25, according to Wilsons, Aroa Biosurgery's 4Q cash receipts of $18m were in line with expectations, confirming a return to normalised ordering patterns for OviTex.

Management confirmed a step-up for TELA sales, and therefore demand-driven shipments, were evident in the quarter. The broker is now confident inventory management changes are stabilising.

The Overweight rating and target price of $1.00 are retained.

FY24 results will be released on Tuesday May 21.

This report was published on May 1, 2024.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.47
If ARX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 27.28.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 286.49.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COL    COLES GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $16.26

Goldman Sachs rates ((COL)) as Sell (5) –

Coles Group's 3Q24 results were in line with Goldman Sachs expectations for both Supermarkets and Liquor, however, a slowing is expected in the 4Q24 as one off events lifted the results such as an early Easter and Pokemon Collectibles,

eComm was the stand out with circa 35% growth on the quarter, but the analyst expects ongoing investment in the digital and store infrastructure.

EBIT margins for food are forecast to decline in FY25 with an increase in costs for Ocado.

A Sell rating is retained and the target is raised to $15.40 from $15.10.

This report was published on April 30, 2024.

Target price is $15.40 Current Price is $16.26 Difference: minus $0.86 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.53, suggesting upside of 7.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 79.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.2, implying annual growth of -4.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.0, implying annual growth of 7.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN    CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC

Coal – Overnight Price: $1.18

Goldman Sachs rates ((CRN)) as Buy (1) –

Wet weather impacts on the Bowen Basin are cited as one of the reasons for lower than expected 1Q24 results from Coronado Global Resources, with a miss on saleable coal production of -14% on a quarter on quarter basis and -12% below Goldman Sachs' forecast.

The US yields were also lower and maintenance at both mines was pulled forward.

Realised met coal prices of US$204/t were also a miss and costs came in at the top end of guidance, US$126/t.

Goldman Sachs adjusts EPS forecasts by -122% for FY24 and -18% for FY25 for reduced production at Curragh and in the US.

A Buy rating is retained and the target is lowered -14% to $1.55.

This report was published on April 30, 2024.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.37
If CRN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.64, suggesting upside of 39.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.10 cents and EPS of 19.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of 78.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $7.86

Goldman Sachs rates ((IGO)) as Buy (1) –

IGO reported 3Q24 results which were generally considered as in line to positive by Goldman Sachs.

The broker points to the additional 200kt sale of spodumene from Greenbushes to TLEA, which is viewed as a positive event around the JV structure with the sale to TLC.

A major shutdown of Train 1 at Kwinana is expected in the September quarter  and Train 2 works are due to be finished during 2024.

Cosmos continues to transition towards formal care and maintenance from June and nickel production shifted to the lower guidance level for FY24.

The analyst's earnings forecasts are raised by 3% for FY24 and 18% for FY25.

Buy rating retained and the target is lifted 8% to $8.10.

This report was published on April 30, 2024.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.86 Difference: $0.24
If IGO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.21, suggesting downside of -8.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.3, implying annual growth of -8.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.7, implying annual growth of -43.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPD    IMPEDIMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.08

Wilsons rates ((IPD)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons stresses private payer coverage is the leading indicator for investors to focus on for ImpediMed. Following 3Q results the broker highlights the expansion of this coverage is the most impressive aspect of the company's last two quarters.

Management reaffirmed its goal to have 85% private payors on board by June, and the analysts expect a powerful re-rating for the share price should this target be achieved.

Third quarter revenue was $2.6m, up from $2.3m in Q2, and was broadly in line with Wilsons' forecast. The company sold 18 SOZO systems,13 in the US, where the installed base reached 555 units.

The 20c target and Overweight rating are maintained.

This report was published on May 1, 2024.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.12
If IPD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.43.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAC    METALS ACQUISITION LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $19.05

Wilsons rates ((MAC)) as Overweight (1) –

Metals Acquisition's 1Q copper output of 8.8Kt was marginally below Wilsons estimate for 9kt, while unit costs of US$2.15/lb missed due to the lower production volumes.

There was a large broken ore stockpile of high-grade ore at quarter's end, combined with two large high grade stopes to be mined in Q2, which helps underpin sequentially higher production during Q2, explain the analysts.

The broker's Overweight rating and $25 target are unchanged.

This report was published on May 1, 2024.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $19.05 Difference: $5.95
If MAC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 64.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.35.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 98.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.29.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OCC    ORTHOCELL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.38

Petra Capital rates ((OCC)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital explains the US launch of Remplir remains a key value driver for Orthocell, noting top-line results from the product's US registrational study is expected in the 3Q of 2024.

The study will de-risk Remplir's US path and put it on track for potential 1Q 2025 US approval, explains the analyst.

The broker points out a renewed Board and strong cash position help support the global expansion of Remplir. Additionally, the focus is on growing revenue from marketed products and exploring partnering options for the company's non-core cell therapy business.

The broker's Buy rating and $1.28 target are retained after the company's recent 3Q report.

This report was published on May 1, 2024.

Target price is $1.28 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.905
If OCC meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 241% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.38.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.39.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG    ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $10.06

Jarden rates ((ORG)) as Overweight (2) –

Origin Energy's APLNG revenues exceeded Jarden's forecast, driving an upgrade to the broker's forecast realised LNG prices.

The LNG price of US$12.17/mmbtu was 3% higher than the prior quarter and  beat the broker's estimate by 13%, contributing to a 13% beat on LNG revenues.

Also, the company boosted domestic gas sales by purchasing additional volumes and lifting the 3Q realised gas price by 8% to $6.90/GJ.

Management maintained all FY24 guidance.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $10.00 from $9.75.

This report was published on May 1, 2024.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $10.06 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.64, suggesting downside of -4.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 68.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.1, implying annual growth of 15.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 92.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.1, implying annual growth of 16.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PYC    PYC THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.11

Wilsons rates ((PYC)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons sees the non-human primate data offered by PYC Therapeutics as a "key de-risking event" and the results showed that a dose of PYC-003 in a range of 3-30mg/kg was safe. A non-tolerable dose will need to be tested in further studies.

The broker notes that Phase 1 trials have the potential to start in early 2025 on the back of the data.

Post the completion of a $74.6m equity raising, the company has funds in place for the development of the clinical pipelines.

Overweight rating with a revised target price of 37c from 39c.

This report was published on April 29, 2024.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.26
If PYC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 236% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.75.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.22.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QPM    QUEENSLAND PACIFIC METALS LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $0.04

Petra Capital rates ((QPM)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital explains Queensland Pacific Metals has shifted focus from progression of its large-scale nickel and cobalt TECH Project towards its recently acquired and producing Moranbah Gas Project (MGP).

This change is positive, in the broker's opinion, and has been prompted by broad weakness across battery materials markets.

The MGP provides investors with pure-play exposure into the National Electricity Market (NEM) to capitalise on the volatility embedded in electricity pricing due to renewables saturation, points out the analyst.

The broker's target price falls to 11c from 15c after Petra Capital  removed the TECH Project and associated funding requirements from forecasts. The Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on May 1, 2024.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.068
If QPM meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 162% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDR    SITEMINDER LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $5.68

Wilsons rates ((SDR)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons expects SiteMinder to achieve 2H24 revenue guidance post the 3Q34 trading update. The company reported annual recurring revenue of $187.6m and revenue of $46m; broadly meeting the broker's expectations.

There is potential upside to forecasts if SiteMinder can accelerate growth to 30% and above, including a stablisation in new products C+, DR+, Demand-Plus for Enterprise, the broker highlights.

Forecasts are under review. Market Weight rating retained.

This report was published on April 29, 2024.

Current Price is $5.68. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $6.45, suggesting upside of 13.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR    SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $9.77

Goldman Sachs rates ((SFR)) as Neutral (3) –

Sandfire Resources missed Goldman Sachs' forecasts for 3Q24 copper and zinc production, down -8% and -9%, respectively.

Motheo reported a 33% lift in mill rates on the quarter and the plant is tracking well for 5.6Mtpa annual production.

Management retained FY24 copper guidance at 135kt.

Adjustments to EPS forecasts include a -104% downgrade in FY24 and -8% in FY25 resulting from higher depreciation and amortisatiion and lower capital expenditure guidance.

The target is reduced -2% to $8.20 and a Neutral rating retained.

This report was published on April 30, 2024.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $9.77 Difference: minus $1.57 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.97, suggesting downside of -8.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of minus 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 75.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 60.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((SFR)) as Overweight (1) –

The majority of 3Q production and cost metrics for Sandfire Resources broadly met Wilsons expectations. Copper production was in line with forecasts, but zinc production missed due to the shift to mine a copper-only zone at the Matsa operations in Spain.

The ramp-up at Motheo in Botswana is tracking in line with expectations (including recent plant performance well ahead of nameplate throughput), with production of around 10kt of copper, in line with the broker's forecasts.

Management maintained FY24 volume guidance for 135kt of copper equivalent, while underlying operating cost guidance for Matsa has been reduced by circa -5%. The prospective unit cost of $74/t of ore processed was a reduction from $78/t previously.

Wilsons' Overweight rating and $9.90 target are maintained.

This report was published on May 1, 2024.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $9.77 Difference: $0.13
If SFR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.97, suggesting downside of -8.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 120.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 40.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFX    SHEFFIELD RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $0.47

Petra Capital rates ((SFX)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital lowers its target for Sheffield Resources to $1.11 from $1.26 following a March quarter where final product recoveries were impacted by the presence of oversize material. There was -15% less final product delivered for each tonne of ore.

Management noted an improvement in the June quarter, and now expects nameplate rates will be reached at the end of the quarter. The broker highlights a strong start for sales, with $4.9m of zircon and $5.8m of TiO2 sold in April.

After taking into account operating costs, debt repayments and capex, Petra Capital forecasts a cash positive September quarter.

The Buy rating is retained.

This report was published on May 1, 2024.

Target price is $1.11 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.635
If SFX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 134% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.70.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 237.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKO    SERKO LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $3.09

Jarden rates ((SKO)) as Overweight (2) –

Serko and Booking.com have extended their relationship for another five years, but the new contract outlines a change in revenue share  to a tiered volume structure from a 50% commission rate, cautions Jarden.

This change sees the incremental commission rate fall to around 13% on volumes of circa 8.6m completed room nights (CRN's), explain the analysts.

More positively, the broker feels the new arrangement reflects a proof point of the platform's maturity, validation of the technology stack, and an acknowledgment of the magnitude of potential volume growth. It's felt the volume target remains achievable.

Separately, management pre-released key metrics ahead of its FY24 results on May 28. Total income was weaker than Jarden expected as CRN growth slowed. Implied 2H revenue of around NZ$35m was below the NZ$36m achieved in the 1H.

The Overweight rating is maintained and the target eases to NZ$4.85 from NZ$4.95.

This report was published on May 1, 2024.

Current Price is $3.09. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $5.18, suggesting upside of 67.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 417.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 134.3.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPG    TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.42

Goldman Sachs rates ((TPG)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs has a positive view on the Multi-Operator Core Network (MOCN) regional agreement between TPG Telecom and Optus, which will extend the mobile coverage to 98.4% of the population, via tripling of its regional metro locations.

TPG Telecom is set to remunerate Optus a net payment (ex-spectrum receipts) of -$1.17bn over 11 years.

As the ACCC is yet to approve the deal, there are no adjustments to earnings forecasts and the deal is assessed as a negative for Telstra ((TLS)).

A Neutral rating and $5.40 target price are unchanged.

This report was published on April 29, 2024.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.98
If TPG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.28, suggesting upside of 19.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.4, implying annual growth of 407.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of 33.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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