Weekly Reports | Jul 02 2024
The month of June was relatively stable for U308 prices in light of the longer term Russian importation fuel ban and the US Department of Energy near term waiver exemptions.
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By Danielle Ecuyer
June ends with a whimper
The uranium spot price and nuclear energy sector have been marked by significant regulatory changes in the last two months, with the Biden Administration reducing US reliance on Russian nuclear fuel imports and strengthening the domestic nuclear industry.
President Biden signed into law, H.R. 1042 on May 13 which bans the importation of Russian nuclear fuel, alongside the US Department of Energy announcing guidelines for purchase waivers until the final deadline on January 1, 2028.
As per industry consultant TradeTech, the spot uranium price moved in a tight range over the course of June, between US$82.50/lb and US$90/lb, with most of the 25 transactions executed in the mid US$80/lb range.
The weekly U308 spot price rose US$1.75 to US$85/lb over the last week of June, down -US$5/lb since May 31, with the Mid-Term U308 price at US$93.50/lb and the Long-Term price at US$80/lb.
Over the final week of June, TradeTech reports the market traded steadily even as the Department of Energy released its Request for Proposals for offers of low-enriched uranium from domestic sources or allies on June 27. This is intended to assist in the transition away from Russian nuclear fuel imports.
In the medium-term market, TradeTech states the transactions undertaken by utilities suggest it remains a sellers' market, with considerable uncertainty around how the Department of Energy will interpret the Russian import waivers, particularly in 2026 and 2027.
Equally, the market is unsure how the Russians will respond to the US bans and the recent wide reaching European Commission's 14th package of sanctions against Russia, which were adopted in the final week of June.
These sanctions include the prohibition of all future investments in and exports to, LNG projects under construction and, after a nine-month period, the use of EU ports for the trans-shipment of Russian LNG.
A further 27 specified vessels were also banned, which are deemed by the EU to be involved in attacks on Ukraine.
TradeTech points to utilities globally looking to secure uranium supplies in the term markets and ensure diversification of supply with US utilities looking to prepare waiver documents.
Creating further uncertainty is the upcoming 60-day deadline by Russian supplier, Tenex. On May 14, Tenex announced it would be seeking confirmation from buyers they would pay for any material prepared in the event they receive a waiver.
Failure to agree to the condition, results in Tenex suspending deliveries.
TradeTech highlights the 60-day deadline is approaching with the H.R.1042 law banning the importation of Russian fuel after August 11, in the absence of an exemption waiver from the Department of Energy.
Global news
-India aims to increase its nuclear power generation by around 70% over the next five years, which equates to a rise in the installed capacity to 13.08GW by 2029 from 7.48GW including seven new reactors, according to the Minister of State for Science and Technology.
-South Korea is planning a small modular reactor complex valued at US$217m aiming to make South Korea a leader in the technology. South Korean President Yoon also announced support for a hydrogen fuel cell development with a nuclear hydrogen national industrial complex.
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