Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jul 22, 2024

This story features AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABB

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ABB   ASX   AZL   BSL   BVS   CAR   CIA   COE   EOS   HUB   OBM   PTM   RED   RHC   RNU   RRL   SMP   STX   WGX  

ABB    AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $3.11

Wilsons rates ((ABB)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

Aussie Broadband  upgraded FY24 earnings (EBITDA) to the top end of its range but downgraded FY25 guidance. Wilson’s suspects an underestimation of Origin’s contribution.

The company also announced the launch of its Buddy brand, the company’s digital first brand. The upgrade and downgrade are reflected in EPS-forecast changes.

Rating is downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight. Target price slumps to $3.32 from $4.52.

This report was published on July 16, 2024.

Target price is $3.32 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.21
If ABB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.94.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.38.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX    ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $64.75

Goldman Sachs rates ((ASX)) as Sell (5) –

Heading into ASX’s August results, Goldman Sachs raises its target price to $59 from $55.45 in June. Sell rating retained.

The broker expects fairly steady listings, strong derivatives income (thanks to rate volatility) and improved cash-market trading.

Goldman Sachs also expects collateral balances to have improved in the June half but corporate bonds to drag. Listing fees generally rose about 5% and the broker expects further increases in the December half.

EPS forecasts rise for FY24 and FY25.

This report was published on July 14, 2024.

Target price is $59.00 Current Price is $64.75 Difference: minus $5.75 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $58.76, suggesting downside of -9.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 211.00 cents and EPS of 249.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 246.6, implying annual growth of 50.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 209.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 217.00 cents and EPS of 255.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 251.1, implying annual growth of 1.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 212.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZL    ARIZONA LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.02

Petra Capital rates ((AZL)) as Buy (1) –

Having received formal approval to expand drilling at its Big Sandy Lithium Project, Arizona Lithium plans to start drilling at the end of July.

Petra Capital says the speed of the approval negotiated by Arizona Lithium’s new partner Big Sandy suggests the latter has the ways and means to navigate Federal and local approval processes.

The project to watch, says Petra Capital, is Prairie Lithium in Saskatchewan.

Buy rating retained. Target price eases to 5c from 6c to reflect the assumed dilution from Big Sandy’s equity stake.

This report was published on July 12, 2024.

Target price is $0.05 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.03
If AZL meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL    BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $21.40

Jarden rates ((BSL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden suspects recent weakness in US benchmark steel spreads could prove the dark before the dawn, observing some forward indicators are starting to improve.

Should spreads remain low throughout the December half, the broker expects BlueScope Steel’s earnings could fall -10% to -15% on consensus forecasts, and believes this has already been factored into the share price.

Add the valuation support from the company’s $18.24 net tangible assets should prove a floor. Combine this with surplus land assets, and the broker is not too concerned. Dividend forecasts are steady.

FY24 EPS forecasts inch up but FY25 forecasts fall a decent clip. Overweight rating retained. Target price inches up to $24 from $23.90.

This report was published on July 15, 2024.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $21.40 Difference: $2.6
If BSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.26, suggesting upside of 4.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 207.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 206.3, implying annual growth of -5.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 162.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.6, implying annual growth of -12.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BVS    BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.16

Wilsons rates ((BVS)) as Overweight (1) –

Bravura Solutions has upgraded FY24 guidance again, this time by 14% above the top end of guidance, outpacing Wilsons’ earnings forecast by 26%.

Management attributed the beat to the success of its transformation strategy.

Overweight rating retained.

Target price falls to $1.43 from $1.51 to reflect more modest growth expectations for FY25 and a reduction in forecast project and ad-hoc work as clients move into a more stabilised mode.

This report was published on July 16, 2024.

Target price is $1.43 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.27
If BVS meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 89.23.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.12.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAR    CAR GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $34.79

Goldman Sachs rates ((CAR)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs increases CAR Group’s target price after reviewing near-term earnings ahead of the FY24 result and rolling forward its valuation.

Despite FX and Trader Interactive challenges, the broker believes the company to be well position to yield solid earnings growth in excess of 10% and is the broker’s preferred sector pick.

The broker observes Australian trade remains very strong despite challenges in the advertising market. FY25 EPS forecasts fall.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $41.40 from $39.4 to reflect the roll-forward.

This report was published on July 12, 2024.

Target price is $41.40 Current Price is $34.79 Difference: $6.61
If CAR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.78, suggesting upside of 8.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.6, implying annual growth of -49.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 80.00 cents and EPS of 99.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.5, implying annual growth of 11.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIA    CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $6.18

Jarden rates ((CIA)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden has updated its financial modeling to include the P65 fines benchmark (considering it to be a more reliable benchmark than the P62 index used previously) and adjust freight assumptions and actual prices for the June quarter, with negative implications for Champion Iron’s target price. 

The broker remains a fan of the company, believing its “strategic differentiation and potential to achieve improved price realisation”. The broker expects a CA10c dividend in the December quarter.

EPS forecasts fall sharply for FY25 and FY26. Buy rating retained. Target price eases -5% to $7.58 from $7.94.

This report was published on July 11, 2024.

Target price is $7.58 Current Price is $6.18 Difference: $1.4
If CIA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.85 cents and EPS of 71.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.61.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 16.85 cents and EPS of 54.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.27.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.21

Petra Capital rates ((COE)) as Buy (1) –

Cooper Energy’s June-quarter result broadly met Petra Capital’s production, sales and revenue forecasts.

Costs were lower than forecast as the BMG abandonment receded, the company’s gearing closing the quarter at 55% (below Petra’s 59%).

Management forecasts a gearing peak in July and predicts a rapid deleveraging thereafter to 11% by FY28, the broker highlights.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to 38c from 37c.

This report was published on July 17, 2024.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.165
If COE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 20.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 71.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.3, implying annual growth of 333.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EOS    ELECTRO OPTIC SYSTEMS HOLDINGS LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $1.92

Petra Capital rates ((EOS)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Electro Optic Systems has announced it expects a 92% increase in June-half revenue on the previous corresponding period to $142.6m due to the hastened delivery of its UAE contract.

Petra Capital says this implies the company should be approaching net-profit break even. The lower June-half cash balance forecast of $52m (a miss on the broker’s $64m) suggests stronger earnings are not translating to higher net cash flows, with the broker suggesting this is possibly reflecting lumpier receipts or higher canon inventories and capital expenditure.

EPS and DPS forecasts are steady for FY24 and FY25. Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $1.89 from $1.50.

This report was published on July 17, 2024.

Target price is $1.89 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If EOS meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.33.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 64.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $46.57

Wilsons rates ((HUB)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

Wilsons downgrades Hub24’s rating to Market Weight from Overweight after the company’s recent share price rally but raises the target price to $49 from $44.69 after an increase in its FY25 valuation multiple.

FY24 EPS forecasts fall -4% to reflect slower than forecast migration of Equity Trustees ((EQT)) accounts and a slower than expected recovery in Pooled cash.

This report was published on July 17, 2024.

Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $46.57 Difference: $2.43
If HUB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $45.74, suggesting downside of -1.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 41.50 cents and EPS of 82.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.2, implying annual growth of 70.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 108.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.6, implying annual growth of 14.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OBM    ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.43

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OBM)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity anticipates further upside for both the gold price and gold equities supported by pending rate cuts and strong margin growth, respectively.

The broker raises its 2024-29 gold price forecasts by an average of 3.4% and increases the long-term (from 2030) estimate by 5% to US$2,712/oz. For silver, the long-term price is increased by 20% to US$33.58/oz.

Across Canaccord’s research coverage of developers and explorers, price targets rise by 3% on average, after FY25 and FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts increase by 2% and 3%, respectively, on the higher gold price estimates.

For Ora Banda Mining, the target rises to 52c from 50c. Speculative Buy.

This report was published on July 11, 2024.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.09
If OBM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.60.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PTM    PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.05

Goldman Sachs rates ((PTM)) as Sell (5) –

Platinum Asset Management’s June-quarter funds under administration fell and no performance fees were received over the first half.

Goldman Sachs observes the international fund continues to be very weak versus the benchmark over the past year while the Asia fund appears weak on a one-year and three-year basis.

The broker doesn’t expect too much from the upcoming results but does expect net flow expectations from here and is awaiting details of the company’s “growth phase” due to begin imminently.

Sell rating retained. Target price edges up to $1 from 98c.

This report was published on July 11, 2024.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: minus $0.055 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting upside of 2.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 12.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of -21.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of -12.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RED    RED 5 LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.41

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RED)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity anticipates further upside for both the gold price and gold equities supported by pending rate cuts and strong margin growth, respectively.

The broker raises its 2024-29 gold price forecasts by an average of 3.4% and increases the long-term (from 2030) estimate by 5% to US$2,712/oz. For silver, the long-term price is increased by 20% to US$33.58/oz.

Across Canaccord’s research coverage of developers and explorers, price targets rise by 3% on average, after FY25 and FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts increase by 2% and 3%, respectively, on the higher gold price estimates.

For Red 5, the target rises to 46c from 43c. Buy.

This report was published on July 11, 2024.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.055
If RED meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.50.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RHC    RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $46.92

Jarden rates ((RHC)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden notes Ramsay Health Care’s UK NHS volumes rose 4.4% in the four months to May compared to the previous corresponding period, albeit growth slowed from the 7.3% registered in April. 

The broker observes Britain’s new prime minister Keir Starmer plans to the clear the NHS backlog, partly by outsourcing to the private sector.

Given a strong backlog at Ramsay’s UK hospitals, the analysts remain comfortable with a forecast for 2H constant currency UK revenue growth (ex-Elysium) of 11%.

Neutral rating and $64.30 target are retained.

This report was published on July 12, 2024.

Target price is $64.30 Current Price is $46.92 Difference: $17.38
If RHC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $54.42, suggesting upside of 16.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 142.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.3, implying annual growth of 3.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 223.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 195.0, implying annual growth of 50.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RNU    RENASCOR RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.09

Petra Capital rates ((RNU)) as No Rating (-1) –

The Australian government has granted Renascor Resources $5m under the International Partnerships in Critical Minerals Program.

Petra Capital says the grant points to the government’s commitment to the program, which has already secured $185m in EFA loans.

The company is focusing on its Siviour mine and developing partnerships for its BAM SPG plant in Adelaide.

The broker estimates the latter has been postponed by a year as the company works to secure binding offtake and funding for the plant.

Buy rating retained. Target price eases to 13c from 15c to reflect the delay and higher dilution.

This report was published on July 12, 2024.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.036
If RNU meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 94.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.55.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL    REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.92

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RRL)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity anticipates further upside for both the gold price and gold equities supported by pending rate cuts and strong margin growth, respectively.

The broker raises its 2024-29 gold price forecasts by an average of 3.4% and increases the long-term (from 2030) estimate by 5% to US$2,712/oz. For silver, the long-term price is increased by 20% to US$33.58/oz.

Across Canaccord’s research coverage of developers and explorers, price targets rise by 3% on average, after FY25 and FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts increase by 2% and 3%, respectively, on the higher gold price estimates.

The target for producer Regis Resources remains at $2.50. Buy.

This report was published on July 11, 2024.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.58
If RRL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.18, suggesting upside of 13.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 192.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 289.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SMP    SMARTPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.16

Wilsons rates ((SMP)) as Overweight (1) –

SmartPay has provided a seven-week trading update for FY25: transacting terminals rose by 700; monthly TTV rose 21% on the previous corresponding period and monthly acquiring revenue was up 24%.

Wilsons considers this to be a strong start to the year and expects tax-cut timing should also ameliorate any potential consumer spending withdrawals in the remaining half (the trading update shows consumer spending is hurting the company’s “back-book”, although this has been more than compensated by the front book, says Wilsons).

Overweight rating and $1.86 target price retained.

This report was published on July 12, 2024.

Target price is $1.86 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.7
If SMP meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.15.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.95.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STX    STRIKE ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.20

Wilsons rates ((STX)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons says the several significant recent announcements from Strike Energy bode well for its growth prospects.

These included: EPA approval of the west Erregulla gas field and AGI operation midstream infrastructure approval is expected this quarter; the Gas Sales Agreement with Wesfarmers ((WES)) subsidiary CSBP; application to AEMO for the award of capacity credits and network access; the downgrade of South Erregulla reserves; and refinancing of Macquarie’s ((MQG)) $153m funding package.

Overweight rating and 33c target price retained.

This report was published on July 15, 2024.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.13
If STX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 32.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of 142.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGX    WESTGOLD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.67

Canaccord Genuity rates ((WGX)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity anticipates further upside for both the gold price and gold equities supported by pending rate cuts and strong margin growth, respectively.

The broker raises its 2024-29 gold price forecasts by an average of 3.4% and increases the long-term (from 2030) estimate by 5% to US$2,712/oz. For silver, the long-term price is increased by 20% to US$33.58/oz.

Across Canaccord’s research coverage of developers and explorers, price targets rise by 3% on average, after FY25 and FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts increase by 2% and 3%, respectively, on the higher gold price estimates.

The target for Westgold Resources rises to $3.50 from $3.35. Buy.

This report was published on July 11, 2024.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.83
If WGX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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