ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED (OBM)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

16/07/2025

1

Outperform

$0.90

32.35%

Ora Banda Mining's June quarter production of around 22koz missed Macquarie's estimate by -11% due to mining delays at Riverina, which pushed -3koz of high-grade stopes into July.

The broker is disappointed by FY25 guidance with costs (AISC) of $2,800–2,900/oz and capex of -$156m both materially higher than expected, while production guidance of 140–155koz was in line.

The analyst explains higher costs include full-year mining expenses, capital at Sand King, and additional third-party processing charges for 200–400kt.

Macquarie aligns its forecasts to guidance and raises its long-term cost base by 16%, citing continued reliance on toll treatment and uncertainty around ore supply for the proposed 3mtpa mill expansion.

Macquarie lowers its target price to 90c from $1.05 and retains an Outperform rating.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.30 cents.

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31/07/2025

1

Speculative Buy

$1.05

54.41%

Ora Banda Mining has posted a softer-than-expected June quarter, with gold production coming in at 21.9ko, below its 24.5koz guidance, due to slower mill ramp-up and mining delays at Riverina Underground.

Canaccord Genuity notes all-in sustaining costs (AISCs) surged 45% quarter-on-quarter to $3,583/oz, driven by lower production volumes, third-party processing costs, and higher mining expenses at Sand King.

FY25 output reached 92.4koz, missing revised guidance, while the company remains unhedged and fully exposed to prevailing spot gold prices of $5,085/oz.

Despite the quarterly setbacks, the analysts maintain a Speculative Buy rating and reaffirm the $1.05 price target, noting the company's robust balance sheet; $84m in cash and an undrawn $50m facility.

The next leg of Ora Banda Mining's growth story, the report states, hinges on operational delivery from both core assets and aggressive exploration, which aims to extend mine life at Riverina and Sand King while advancing greenfield targets like Waihi and Little Gem.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.