ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED (OBM)
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30/09/2025

2

Accumulate

$1.35

1.50%

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

EPS forecast for Ora Banda Mining lifted by 35% for FY26 and by 58% for FY27.

Target rises to $1.35 from $1.20. Accumulate retained.

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10/10/2025

3

Hold

$1.02

-23.31%

Following the end of the September quarter, Moelis has updated forecasts for gold/silver and copper companies to reflect actual prices, forex, and revised consensus assumptions.

The broker notes gold reached a record price, prompting a 15% upgrade in near term price forecasts and an 8% increase to long term forecast (US$2,812/oz)

Copper rose to US$4.75/lb amid the Grasberg disruption, though long-term assumptions remain steady. Silver prices are materially higher, benefiting producers with by-product exposure. Long-term silver price estimate is US$34.67/oz, up 21%.

Overall, gold producers saw strong valuation and earnings upgrades, while copper names gained modestly.

In the case of Ora Banda Mining, the broker lifted FY26-27 EBITDA forecasts by 15% and 23% respectively, and net profit estimates by 17% and 25%, respectively. 

Hold. Target rises to $1.02 from $0.88.

The below is from a separate report, issued on the same day:

Ora Banda Mining’s September quarter production of 30.6koz, including 3.6koz from third-party milling, came in below Moelis’ 35.5koz estimate, while sales of 31.3koz also missed expectations. Cash closed at $123m, broadly in line with the broker’s $121m forecast.

The softer operational result was offset by steady cash generation, observes Moelis, likely reflecting timing factors related to toll treatment, lower capital spending, or reduced costs.

Despite lower sales and higher growth capital, the company added about $39m in cash, aided by exposure to higher spot prices, explain the analysts.

A stronger operational performance will be needed to achieve FY26 guidance of 140-155koz, points out the broker.

FORECAST
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.45 cents.
Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.20 cents.