ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED (OBM)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

02/05/2025

3

Neutral

$1.05

0.96%

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating on Ora Banda Mining and maintains the $1.05 target price, following a softer March quarter impacted by planned plant upgrades.

Quarterly production of 23koz was -12% below the broker's expectation due to lower throughput and grades during a six-day mill shutdown, with costs (AISC) -16% worse-than-forecast.

FY25 production guidance was lowered to 100-105koz from 100-110koz and AISC guidance was raised by 18% to $2,350-2,500/oz.

Despite these changes, net cash of $77m beat the analyst's forecast by $18m due to lower exploration spend and positive working capital movements.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.60 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.70 cents.

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06/05/2025

1

Speculative Buy

$1.25

20.19%

Ora Banda Mining's 3Q25 result missed Canaccord Genuity's forecasts across all metrics, with the biggest miss on cost of $2,470/oz vs the broker's estimate of $1,962/oz. Cost was impacted by a six-day shutdown related to plant upgrade.

The company revised FY25 production guidance to the lower end of the range and lifted cost guidance, prompting the broker to cut production estimates and increase cost forecasts.

Updating the model with the latest result and roll-forward resulted in a small rise in the target price to $1.25 from $1.20. 

Speculative Buy stays.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.