Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 18, 2024

This story features EMERALD RESOURCES NL, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EMR

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

EMR   FFM   GTK   IMM   MTS   NXD   PMT   RED   SMP   TLC   VR8   WEB  

EMR    EMERALD RESOURCES NL

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.87

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EMR)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity highlights a wall slip at Emerald Resources’ 100% owned Okvau Mine in Cambodia which is impacting on the access ramp at a shallow depth.

Management has retained Sept quarter production guidance and FY25 guidance is understood to meet the definitive feasibility study of 100-110koz.

The analyst views the wall slip as bringing forward expected cutbacks in the mine plan and inventory stockpiles will be used to maintain production levels.

The Buy rating and $4.50 target price are unchanged.

This report was published on September 16, 2024.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.87 Difference: $0.63
If EMR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.88.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 19.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.66.

Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FFM    FIREFLY METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.98

Canaccord Genuity rates ((FFM)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

FireFly Metals recently finished further surveys for potential new copper zones and Canaccord Genuity points to further indications of mineralisation which were found at the trials.

Management is reported as announcing further resource updates in late March quarter 2025 and the December quarter in the same year.

Canaccord Genuity believes the resource could double to 50-60mt by the end of 2025.

Speculative Buy rating with a $1.40 target price.

This report was published on September 16, 2024.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.415
If FFM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GTK    GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $10.02

Wilsons rates ((GTK)) as Overweight (1) –

As UK water utilities are increasingly ramping-up procurement for modern CRM and billing solutions, Wilsons sees a material opportunity for Gentrack Group.

The utilities are motivated by lower leakage, reduced household consumption, improved customer experience and the smart water meter rollout, explain the analysts.

Securing some current potential contract wins in the space would be a material catalyst for Gentrack Group, suggests the broker, given the current lack of B2C reference sites.

Overweight rating. The target rises to $11.50 from $11.00. 

This report was published on September 16, 2024.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.02 Difference: $1.48
If GTK meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.23, suggesting upside of 12.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 90.53.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of 93.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.6.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IMM    IMMUTEP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.34

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IMM)) as Buy (1) –

Immutep announced further data from its TACTI-003 data in head and neck cancer at the European Society for Medical Oncology.

Canaccord Genuity views the incremental results as positive and the broker believes there is validation of efti to offer additional efficiency with Keytruda for better patient outcomes.

Buy rating and $0.95 target.

This report was published on September 16, 2024.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.61
If IMM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 179% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS    METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $3.57

Jarden rates ((MTS)) as Overweight (2) –

Following an AGM trading update, Jarden believes Metcash is holding its own in a tough market. A weaker housing market saw deteriorating trends in hardware with Independent Hardware Group (IHG) sales down -4% year-on-year ex-acquisitions.

Total Tools like-for-like sales also fell by -1.7% year-on-year.

Liquor was the standout result, assesses the broker, with market share gains as Independent Brands Australia (IBA) sales rose by 6% year-on-year, while on-premise remained weak falling by circa -1%.

The Overweight rating and $4.40 target are maintained for Metcash.

This report was published on September 16, 2024.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.83
If MTS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.05, suggesting upside of 13.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 27.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.9, implying annual growth of 8.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 28.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of 5.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXD    NEXTED GROUP LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $0.12

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NXD)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity assesses the revised Federal Government visa restrictions with the planned caps for NextEd Group well below both 2023 level and 2024 levels year-to-date.

This will place “limitations” on revenue growth for the company the analyst believes and unfortunately this is happening after the company achieved a shift to “vocational” which has a 12 to 24 month study length, Canaccord Genuity states.

The broker lowers EBITDA forecasts by -6% in FY25 and -22% in FY26.

Buy rating with a 38c target, down from 60c.

This report was published on September 13, 2024.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.265
If NXD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 230% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.83.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.75.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMT    PATRIOT BATTERY METALS INC

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.40

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PMT)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity transfers analyst coverage of Patriot Battery Metals.

The broker observes the recently released preliminary economic assessment for the company’s Shaakichiuwaanaan project reveals better outcomes including higher recoveries, lower cash costs and capital intensities.

A definitive feasibility study is aimed for 2025 and final investment decision in 2027.

Speculative Buy retained with a $1.05 target price down from $1.40 on changed modelling assumptions and risks associated with permitting, financing, capex and timelines.

This report was published on September 16, 2024.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.65
If PMT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 163% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.96, suggesting upside of 140.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 597.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -13.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 512.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RED    RED 5 LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.33

Jarden rates ((RED)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (2) –

The merger of Red 5 and Silver Lake Resources -resulting in the new name of Vault Minerals ((VAU)) later this month- brings together four operating mines.

The mines are King of the Hills, Darlot, Mt Monger and Deflector, as well as Sugar Zone (currently under care & maintenance).

This combination creates an around 400kozpa producer with true upper third quartile costs (AISC), highlights the broker, which initiates coverage on Red 5 with an Overweight rating and 40c target.

The amount of cash on hand will double form the current level to around $1bn by FY26, highlight the analysts, providing prospects for capital returns to shareholders once tax losses are exhausted.

This report was published on September 17, 2024.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.07
If RED meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.92.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SMP    SMARTPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.95

Wilsons rates ((SMP)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons lowers its target for SmartPay to $1.66 from $1.86 after assuming weaker near-term consumer spending in Australia, but the Overweight rating is kept given the meaningful upside opportunity for the company’s shares.

The broker believes negative sentiment from the looming RBA review into payments is overdone and flies in the face of aggressive long-term incentive (LTI) targets set by management during the August reporting season.

Revenue and EPS hurdles beat forecasts formerly held by the broker and consensus by more than 20%.

This report was published on September 16, 2024.

Target price is $1.66 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.705
If SMP meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.77.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.11.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLC    LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $5.09

Jarden rates ((TLC)) as Neutral (3) –

Following a strong Powerball run in August supported by an accelerated jackpot sequence (tactically employed by Lottery Corp to generate interest), jackpot activity has softened/normalised into September, explains Jarden.

Because of increased FY25 opex requirements, the broker sees around -3% downside risk to the consensus FY25 earnings (EBITDA) forecast, in the absence of any pickup in jackpots.

The Neutral rating and $5.10 target are maintained.

This report was published on September 17, 2024.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: $0.01
If TLC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 8.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of -2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 18.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 7.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VR8    VANADIUM RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.04

Petra Capital rates ((VR8)) as Buy (1) –

An internal internal technical review has identified cost and operational efficiency gains for the development of vanadium deposits at the Steelpoortdrift Vanadium Project owned by Vanadium Resources, highlights Petra Capital.

Efficiency can be maximised at this South African project by consolidating mining and processing onto a single site, and by designing modifications to the concentrator and salt roast leach plant designs, explains the broker.

The Buy rating and 16c target are unchanged.

This report was published on September 16, 2024.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.115
If VR8 meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 256% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.50.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB    WEBJET LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $7.60

Wilsons rates ((WEB)) as Overweight (1) –

Post demerger, Wilsons expect WebBeds will remain in the ASX200, while there is a risk Webjet B2C will not meet the ASX300 threshold.

The analysts assess an indicative equity value range of between $2.6-3.4bn for WebBeds and $270-370m for Webjet B2C.

The low and high ends of the broker’s indicative valuation ranges for WebBeds and Webjet B2C imply a combined post-demerger equity value range of $2.9-3.8bn. This level implies between -2% to plus 28% net value creation compared to Webjet’s current market cap.

Overweight. Target rises to $9.59 from $9.52.

This report was published on September 16, 2024.

Target price is $9.59 Current Price is $7.60 Difference: $1.99
If WEB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.86, suggesting upside of 29.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 36.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.1, implying annual growth of 96.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 45.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.5, implying annual growth of 22.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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