EMERALD RESOURCES NL (EMR)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

12/01/2026

5

Sell

$4.90

-36.11%

After three consecutive quarters of disappointment, Emerald Resources' production at Okvau gold mine in the December quarter met Ord Minnett's expectations. Improved recoveries drove the turnaround. 

While AISC (cost) is expected to be at the upper end of guidance, cash levels remain solid and gold sales timing explains the production-sales variance, the broker notes.

Growth optionality remains via Okvau expansion and the Memot and Dingo Range projects, in the broker's view. FY26 EPS estimate trimmed by -0.9% and FY27-28 modestly upgraded by 0.1%.

Sell rating. Target unchanged at $4.90.

13/01/2026

1

Buy

$7.10

-7.43%

Canaccord Genuity lifted its long-term gold price forecast by 3.5% to US$4,909/oz from 2029 and raised medium-term estimates by 2.1% (2026-28). The broker's long-term forex forecasts are unchanged, leading to a 3.5% rise in gold price estimate in AUD terms to $7,013/oz.

The broker also increased the long-term silver price forecast by 36.6% to US$77.7/oz. 

Price targets for senior and intermediate/junior producers lifted by an average 5% after factoring in revised forecasts.

Emerald Resources produced 25koz at Okvau, below expectations despite record recoveries, marking a fourth consecutive quarterly miss, the broker notes. FY26 guidance has not been restated.

Buy. Target rises to $7.10 from $6.80.