EMERALD RESOURCES NL (EMR)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

03/04/2025

4

Upgrade to Lighten from Sell

$3.60

-13.25%

Ord Minnett has broadly reduced its commodity price forecasts, with the exception of gold and neodymium-praseodymium.

The broker cites growing concerns over weakening Chinese steel demand and the potential global trade and economic impacts stemming from proposed US tariffs.

The broker's 2025 iron ore price forecast falls by -3%, while metallurgical coal and thermal coal price estimates fall by -18% and -17%, respectively.

On a sector level, Ord Minnett prefers base metal producers over the bulk miners, noting limited appeal among the lithium and coal producers.

Rio Tinto is preferred over over BHP Group among the large diversified miners, while South32, Capstone Copper, and MAC Copper are the analyst's top picks for base metals exposure.

The broker upgrades its rating for Emerald Resources to Lighten from Sell and maintains a $3.60 target.

Among the large gold exposures, the analysts like Buy-rated Newmont Corp.

12/04/2025

1

Buy

$5.95

43.37%

Emerald Resources reported 3Q25 production of 19koz vs Canaccord Genuity's forecast of 20koz, but gold sales of 24koz vs 20koz estimate.

Costs were also lower than estimated, resulting in cash and bullion of $210m vs the broker's forecast of $186m.

The analyst revised forecasts following this update and previously updated forecasts to account for revised gold price estimates.

The broker lifted gold price forecasts in USD for the March quarter by 7.7% and around 10-12% each year until 2028, with the long-term price raised by 11.5%.

The AUD/USD forecasts were lowered until 2027, and left unchanged after that. This resulted in a bigger lift in gold price in AUD terms until 2027, with the forecasts thereafter in line with increases in USD price.

Buy. Target price rises to $5.95 from $5.25.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.