Weekly Reports | Nov 05 2024
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN
Term U308 prices held up despite a tail-off in activity and demand last week in the spot market.
-October caught the uranium buyer blues
-Term U308 markets are where all the action is
-Kazatomprom reports 3Q2024 results
-Paladin, Boss and Lotus Resources in the news
By Danielle Ecuyer
Buyers head to the sidelines
If the month of October started with a ‘bang’ for the U308 spot price market, then last week ended with more of a ‘whimper’.
Industry consultants TradeTech underscored how macro factors such as positive longer-term demand drivers for nuclear power from technology companies boosted interest in the spot price market at the start of October.
Utilities also embarked on a string of announcements, stating their intentions to re-start idled nuclear plants in the US. As TradeTech points out, impatient sellers eventually capitulated to a lack of buying in the spot market and the U308 spot price started dropping as the month ended.
Despite the lower offered prices, no transactions were conducted in the last four days of October.
The TradeTech U308 daily spot price indicator fell -US$2.25lb to US$80lb from the end of September.
TradeTech’s Mid-Term U308 price indicator declined -US$2 to US$84lb and the Long-Term U308 price indicator remained constant at US$82lb.
In contrast to the subdued spot market over the second half of the month, utilities were active in term U308 markets. TradeTech points to two major transactions, even though several utilities were highlighted as active in the term markets. One US utility was seeking up to 2mlbs of U308 for delivery between 2028 and 2032 with an optional 300,000lbs p.a. for 2033-2035.
Another US utility is cited as reviewing offers for 1.4mlbs of U308 contained in UF6 or uranium hexafluoride for delivery over 2026-2029.
TradeTech explains the term market is more positive for sellers with activity trading around US$82lb for base prices, with recent macro demand news from tech hyperscalers for nuclear power demand underscoring a more “bullish” tone from sellers.
Friday Nov 1 saw the TradeTech spot price indicator slip by -US$1.50lb from Oct 31 to US$78.50lb, down- US$2.50lb on the week. The lower price encouraged buyers to participate with the consultants reporting two trades, one at US$79lb and a second which followed at US$78.50lb.
Kazatomprom achieves higher annual realised prices
The big news of the day on Friday was Kazatomprom’s 3Q2024 trading update. Production of 5,894t U308 was higher by 2% compared to the previous quarter, and up 16%, year-on-year.
Group sales declined -23% on the previous year on an average realised price of US$65.65lb, a rise of 26% on the year. Management retained 2024 production guidance.
Corporate news for the week
Paladin Energy ((PDN)) reported a disappointing 1Q25 production miss sending the shares down -15% on the day and boosting shorts interest in the stock to 14.41% from 13.87% over the week. Paladin is the fourth most shorted stock on the Australian market.
FNArena took a deep dive into what the brokers were saying on the quarterly report which revealed noticeably lower-than-expected production due to what Shaw and Partners described as “run-of-the-mill” commissioning issues for Langer Heinrich.
FNArena’s daily monitored brokers have a Buy-equivalent rating with an average target price of $13.62, down -52c post result.
For more details check out the latest update (https://fnarena.com/index.php/2024/10/30/paladin-energys-storm-in-a-teacup/).
Boss Energy ((BOE)) reported 1Q25 production which met Macquarie’s forecasts and management reiterated FY25 guidance of 850,000lbs.
Morgan Stanley observed the Honeymoon ramp up with column 1 achieving “nameplate” capacity with a focus now on column 3.
For Shaw and Partners, the ramp up of Honeymoon was in line with expectations and the analyst stresses the “disconnect” between share prices for uranium stocks and improving term contract prices.
Four of the five daily monitored brokers have Buy-equivalent ratings with an average target price of $4.20. Morgan Stanley has a Hold-equivalent rating with a $3 target price.
Boss Energy has the second highest shorts interest at 15.37% which is up from 15.05% a week earlier.
Lotus Resources ((LOT)) announced a non-underwritten share purchase plan to raise $15m with the issue of new shares at a 25c price.
The issue is part of a $130m capital raising announced on Oct 24 with $66.8m raised in the first placement tranche.
The second placement tranche will raise around $63.1m subject to shareholder approval at the company’s EGM on or around Dec 9.
The shorts interest in Lotus declined to 5.2% from 9.17% a week earlier.
For more articles of what’s been happening over the month of October:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2024/10/29/uranium-week-us94lb-spot-in-reach/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2024/10/22/uranium-week-battle-royal-shorts-versus-sprott/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2024/10/15/uranium-week-nuclear-support-broadening/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2024/10/08/uranium-week-shorts-versus-growing-demand/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 01/11/2024 | 0.0400 |  -20.00% |
$0.19 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 01/11/2024 | 0.1500 | – 3.13% |
$0.33 | $0.11 | |||
| AGE | 01/11/2024 | 0.0400 |  2.22% |
$0.08 | $0.03 | $0.100 | 150.0% |
|
| AKN | 01/11/2024 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.07 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 01/11/2024 | 0.0700 | – 6.67% |
$0.18 | $0.07 | |||
| BKY | 01/11/2024 | 0.3600 | 0.00% | $0.45 | $0.26 | |||
| BMN | 01/11/2024 | 2.8800 | – 3.26% |
$4.87 | $1.90 | $7.400 | 156.9% |
|
| BOE | 01/11/2024 | 3.2500 | 0.88% |
$6.12 | $2.38 | 21.7 | $4.200 | 29.2% |
| BSN | 01/11/2024 | 0.0300 | – 3.13% |
$0.21 | $0.02 | |||
| C29 | 01/11/2024 | 0.0900 | 12.50% |
$0.12 | $0.06 | |||
| CXO | 01/11/2024 | 0.1100 | – 4.35% |
$0.40 | $0.08 | $0.090 | -18.2% |
|
| CXU | 01/11/2024 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 01/11/2024 | 0.1300 | -10.34% |
$0.45 | $0.11 | |||
| DYL | 01/11/2024 | 1.3300 | – 1.43% |
$1.83 | $0.91 | -73.9 | $1.900 | 42.9% |
| EL8 | 01/11/2024 | 0.3100 | – 5.71% |
$0.68 | $0.26 | |||
| ERA | 01/11/2024 | 0.0020 | 50.00% |
$0.08 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 01/11/2024 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 01/11/2024 | 0.0040 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 01/11/2024 | 0.0900 | 28.57% |
$0.18 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 01/11/2024 | 0.0600 | 20.00% |
$0.28 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 01/11/2024 | 0.5000 | 0.00% | $1.03 | $0.14 | |||
| KOB | 01/11/2024 | 0.0900 | -10.00% |
$0.18 | $0.07 | |||
| LAM | 01/11/2024 | 0.8400 | 0.60% |
$1.04 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 01/11/2024 | 0.2500 | 0.00% | $0.49 | $0.20 | $0.547 | 118.7% |
|
| MEU | 01/11/2024 | 0.0400 | – 4.88% |
$0.06 | $0.04 | |||
| NXG | 01/11/2024 | 11.1300 | 0.00% | $13.66 | $7.89 | $16.200 | 45.6% |
|
| ORP | 01/11/2024 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| PDN | 01/11/2024 | 10.0300 | – 1.93% |
$17.98 | $8.15 | 27.0 | $14.325 | 42.8% |
| PEN | 01/11/2024 | 0.0900 | – 1.08% |
$0.15 | $0.07 | $0.260 | 188.9% |
|
| SLX | 01/11/2024 | 5.3400 | 1.79% |
$6.74 | $3.01 | $7.200 | 34.8% |
|
| TOE | 01/11/2024 | 0.3400 | 4.84% |
$0.70 | $0.01 | |||
| WCN | 01/11/2024 | 0.0200 | – 9.09% |
$0.03 | $0.01 |
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOT - LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED