Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Nov 13, 2024

This story features ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANZ

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ANZ   ARX   BRG   DHG   IPX   JIN   LOT   MAQ   MYX   NEC   PYC   REA  

ANZ    ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $32.57

Jarden rates ((ANZ)) as Neutral (3) –

ANZ Bank’s FY24 headline profit was weaker than Jarden’s expectations, due to higher Suncorp bank costs and acquisition adjustments. This aside, the core result was broadly in line, driven by margin expansion, sound credit quality and disciplined cost control.

Looking ahead, Jarden expects Suncorp bank to lift ANZ’s margins while providing accelerated cost synergies.

Overall, with ANZ’s reasonable valuation versus peers, the broker retains a Neutral rating and target of $30.00 as model roll-forward benefits offset reduced earnings.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $32.57 Difference: minus $2.57 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $27.35, suggesting downside of -12.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 168.00 cents and EPS of 235.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 171.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 171.00 cents and EPS of 238.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.6, implying annual growth of 0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 172.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARX    AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.68

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ARX)) as Buy (1) –

Aroa Biosurgery’s distributor of Ovitex and Ovitex PRS product lines, TELA, released its Sep Q result that slightly beat Canaccord Genuity’s expectations, and maintained 2024 guidance.

The quarter showed a bounce-back back following a challenged June Q of cyberattacks, procedure volume weakness, and surgeon user departure, the broker notes. The company reported 26% revenue growth, with strong European growth.

Aroa continues to look cheap in Canaccord’s view, with this year expected to be its maiden profitable year. The broker expects operating leverage and scale to come through in FY26, which should help restore investor confidence in the company.

Buy and $1.00 target retained.

This report was published on November 11, 2024.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.32
If ARX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 184.78.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.21.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $31.53

Petra Capital rates ((BRG)) as Sell (5) –

Petra Capital retains a Sell rating on Breville Group, with unchanged target price of $28.30 due to valuation concerns amidst anticipated headwinds.

The broker notes while the business is performing within FY25 expectations, trading at around 34x FY25 PE is deemed high given the risks, including likely increased China tariffs following recent political shifts, intensifying competition in the coffee market, and strong 2H25 comparables.

The analyst forecasts Inventory levels will rise slightly, but are not expected to have a material impact on earnings at this stage.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $28.30 Current Price is $31.53 Difference: minus $3.23 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.73, suggesting upside of 6.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.10 cents and EPS of 92.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 13.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 40.30 cents and EPS of 103.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.4, implying annual growth of 13.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DHG    DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $2.80

Jarden rates ((DHG)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

Domain Holdings Australia and REA Group’s quarterly updates showed similar paid volumes growth, Jarden notes, however this is where the similarities ended.

The impact of winbacks diluted Domain’s controllable yield growth while REA’s Buy yield grew by an “impressive” 15%.

The broker suggests this indicates REA is growing its share of agent spend, although agent spend is growing overall, which still benefits Domain.

Jarden has downgraded forecast earnings for Domain and upgraded REA’s, cutting Domain’s target by-2.9% to $3.35 and lifting REA’s target 2.3% to $181. 

Domain’s share price underperformance is considered an opportunity and the broker upgrades to Buy from Overweight. Jarden moves REA to Underweight from Sell despite its stronger operating momentum but notes a lack of near-term catalyst.

This report was published on November 9, 2024.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.55
If DHG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 16.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.90 cents and EPS of 8.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of 29.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.70 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.6, implying annual growth of 21.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPX    IPERIONX LIMITED

Industrial Metals – Overnight Price: $4.02

Petra Capital rates ((IPX)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital visited Iperionx’s titanium metal plant in Virginia. The plant is producing small batches of titanium metal from its patented HAMR furnace. Iperionx is on track to ramp up materially in 2025 as remaining equipment is installed, in line with Petra’s existing forecasts.

The broker came away more comfortable in the  ramp-up profile and with more conviction that the company’s unique product offering has a credible and rapid pathway to market share gains.

Buy retained, target rises to $5.01 from $4.93.

This report was published on November 8, 2024.

Target price is $5.01 Current Price is $4.02 Difference: $0.99
If IPX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 223.33.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2010.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JIN    JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $12.97

Jarden rates ((JIN)) as Buy (1) –

Jumbo Interactive’s AGM reaffirmed FY25 guidance. Not unexpectedly for Jarden, given lack of jackpots, its four-month trading update (coming off a record FY24 base) was soft, with total transaction value (TTV) and revenue down -5% and -8% year on year respectively.

Jumbo noted average turnover per draw on like-for-like jackpots has trended positively, which should reassure investors as to underlying growth potential, the broker suggests, notwithstanding weaker cyclical activity.

Importantly, Jarden believes Jumbo prudently manages its marketing expenditure to the low end of 1.5%-2.0% TTV guidance range to mitigate any adverse jackpot impacts.

Target falls to $14.60 from $15.50, Buy retained.

This report was published on November 9, 2024.

Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $12.97 Difference: $1.63
If JIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.57, suggesting upside of 20.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 63.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.6, implying annual growth of 2.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 59.40 cents and EPS of 81.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.9, implying annual growth of 11.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOT    LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $0.23

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LOT)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity observes Lotus Resources’ more conservative ramp-up assumption for the Kayelekera uranium project restart.

Following a $130m capital raise, the company is now funded for initial production, expected in Q3 2025. 

The broker reduces forecast FY26 production and EBITDA due to anticipated restart challenges but notes key project developments, including completed repairs on critical infrastructure.

Canaccord Genuity highlights the company’s $168m liquidity but remains cautious about potential capital overruns and restart risks.

Speculative Buy rating maintained. Target price falls to $0.42 from $0.54,

This report was published on November 7, 2024.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.19
If LOT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.55, suggesting upside of 137.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 38.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 76.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAQ    MACQUARIE TECHNOLOGY GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $89.77

Petra Capital rates ((MAQ)) as Buy (1) –

AI is expected to bring a significant productivity uplift to the domestic economy hence Petra Capital continues to remain positive on the data centre sector.

Given Trump’s ties to Elon Musk, the broker regards the newly elected Trump administration as more innovation and technology-focused with global technology companies Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Nvidia likely to benefit.

While data centres have been the predominant theme, AI adoption will require Macquarie Technology’s significant skills in infrastructure refresh, cyber security and digital transformation, Petra suggests.

Target rises to $94.93 from $87.81, Buy retained.

This report was published on November 11, 2024.

Target price is $94.93 Current Price is $89.77 Difference: $5.16
If MAQ meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 145.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 61.70.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 146.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 61.15.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYX    MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $5.30

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MYX)) as Buy (1) –

Media speculation on the potential for acquisition of Mayne Pharma comes as no surprise to Canaccord Genuity.

The broker comments new management has proven its ability to execute across Women’s Health and Dermatology, and has worked well to restore investor confidence in the longer-term sustainable growth story that was previously elusive.

The turnaround story “has legs”, and Canaccord believes the stock still trades well below underlying value and at a material discount to. peers. This could potentially represent an attractive, accretive opportunity for a larger player in the specialty pharma space.

Buy and $6.25 target retained.

This report was published on November 11, 2024.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.30 Difference: $0.95
If MYX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEC    NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $1.17

Jarden rates ((NEC)) as Overweight (2) –

Nine Entertainment’s AGM trading update was somewhat mixed relative to Jarden’s expectations.

On a positive note, Stan appears to be tracking marginally ahead of expectations with lower-than-expected churn, and should benefit from the recently announced introduction of advertising at Stan Sport in 2H25.

Digital subscription publishing revenues are performing ahead of Nine’s expectations. Television was the key negative, with 1H25 revenues tracking below Jarden’s expectations with softness in the Dec Q ad market (-10%) the surprise.

Jarden lowers its target to $1.55 from $1.60, noting the majority of the reduction relates to Domain Group ((DHG)). Overweight retained.

This report was published on November 9, 2024.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.38
If NEC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.73, suggesting upside of 49.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.40 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 33.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 9.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.4, implying annual growth of 34.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PYC    PYC THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.20

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PYC)) as Buy (1) –

PYC Therapeutics’ core technology rests on Cell Penetrating Peptide and PPMO, intended to mitigate some of the shortcomings
typically associated with other kinds of gene therapies, Canaccord Genuity notes. 

A US company targeting different indications leverages CPP-PPMO combinations, but one has announced the discontinuation of its Phase 2 program in the space on safety concerns.

Canaccord is less concerned about that safety issue with regard to PYC’s programs with systemic administration, given a much lower dosing profile and positive preclinical toxicology reports.

Buy and 24c target retained.

This report was published on November 11, 2024.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.04
If PYC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA    REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $242.16

Jarden rates ((REA)) as Upgrade to Underweight from Sell (4) –

Domain Holdings Australia and REA Group’s quarterly updates showed similar paid volumes growth, Jarden notes, however this is where the similarities ended.

The impact of winbacks diluted Domain’s controllable yield growth while REA’s Buy yield grew by an impressive 15%.

This indicates REA is growing its share of agent spend, the broker suggests, although agent spend is growing overall, which still benefits Domain.

Jarden has downgraded forecast earnings for Domain and upgraded REA’s, cutting Domain’s target by-2.9% to $3.35 and lifting REA’s target 2.3% to $181. 

Domain’s share price underperformance is considered an opportunity and the broker upgrades to Buy from Overweight. Jarden moves REA to Underweight from Sell, ignoring its stronger operating momentum but notes a lack of near-term catalyst.

This report was published on November 9, 2024.

Target price is $181.00 Current Price is $242.16 Difference: minus $61.16 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $240.86, suggesting upside of 0.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 228.00 cents and EPS of 437.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 433.5, implying annual growth of 89.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 239.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 55.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 263.00 cents and EPS of 493.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 511.5, implying annual growth of 18.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 283.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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