Rudi's View | 10:00 AM
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor
Ed Yardeni believes the S&P500 will reach 10,000 by 2030.
It seems like a bold prediction to make, typical, maybe, of the euphoric sentiment that surrounds share markets when indices are trading near all-time record highs.
More value-conscious investors have kept their eyes firmly focused on the elevated multiples and the narrow base from which equity indices have set new records this year, instead urging investors to remain vigilant and cautious.
Clearly, Yardeni is not that worried, instead predicting the absence of economic recession and the strong acceleration in growth ahead will take care of today's bloated-looking valuations.
That prospective acceleration in growth, by the way, has less to do with the new US President, but more so with the latest technological break-through that is Artificial Intelligence (AI), which, through a variety of formats, promises to deliver efficiencies to industries and companies that are able to develop, integrate and employ this new technology to their own benefit.
Less regulation and tax cuts from Trump & Co are simply an added bonus, while drawbacks from tariffs and higher bond yields amp up general uncertainty.
Different, but the same?
Adding another 4000 points on top of today's richly-valued US share market might prove less demanding than one might assume at first reflex.
Consider the long term average return of the S&P500 is around 10%, including dividends.
To achieve Yardeni's trajectory for the coming five years would require a cumulative annual return of circa 10.75%, which is above the long-term average, but surely achievable with all the potential positives in waiting?
One added observation is today's share market 'valution' is heavily skewed because of a small group of strong (out)performers. The large majority of share prices hasn't moved in any significant fashion for up to three years.
If those share prices were to close the gap, the general starting point would be a much lower level in terms of valuations and base earnings.
The situation is not significantly different in Australia where the banks, unencumbered by the lack of earnings growth, have been responsible for a little less than half of total market gains from late last year's starting point.
The other half stems predominantly from technology favourites such as Pro Medicus ((PME)), WiseTech Global ((WTC)), Hub24 ((HUB)), Netwealth Group ((NWL)), TechnologyOne ((TNE)) and Xero ((XRO)), plus data centre exposures and the occasional stand-out performer elsewhere.
For share markets to broaden their upward momentum, many are looking for today's leaders to fail, with investors' focus to return to cheaper priced laggards, but maybe that's not where the answer lays for the next five years.
For share market bulls like Yardeni, the future remains with technology and AI. You either own the companies that provide and facilitate the technology or you own those companies that successfully use it.
The latter suggests any sustainable revival from old economy companies inside media, healthcare, telecom, retail, finance, et cetera might depend on each company's ability to use AI to become more efficient, increase margins, accelerate and improve product development, grow sales and profits, and attract a higher valuation.
Tapping into that 'the future is full of promise and potential'-enthusiasm, it is not difficult to see how the next five years could extend the current bull market until the end of the decade.
Three scenarios for the future
A recent strategy update by Dutch-based asset manager Robeco, now owned by Japan's Orix Corp, suggests such a favourable outcome is by no means guaranteed.
Robeco's investment strategy blueprint for the next five years does acknowledge there is potential for an AI-driven productivity boost, for sure, and if it does announce itself, it will dramatically transform the outlook for economies and financial markets.
But such an outcome is currently only given a 20% chance of happening.
A 30% chance is given to a bearish scenario in which excessive government spending and geopolitical turmoil lead to sluggish global growth and a noticeable pick-up in inflation, resulting in a deadfull stagflation scenario for the world at large.
If developments turn into the wrong direction, Robeco can see central banks being forced to opt for hard landings in order to keep a lid on re-invigorated inflation.
The most likely scenario, at 50% chance, is a bumpy road ahead, including elements of both scenarios mentioned, but with a net positive outcome overall.
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