Weekly Reports | Dec 20 2024
This story features PETER WARREN AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PWR
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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PETER WARREN AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((PWR)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Peter Warren Automotive’s 1H guidance proved well below both Jarden’s and consensus forecast, prompting the broker to downgrade earnings estimate and target price.
The company revealed new car revenue and margins have been adversely affected by lower demand and a significant oversupply of new vehicles in the market.
Jarden lowered the rating to Overweight (one step above Neutral) from Buy, on optimism that demand could get a boost from improvement in cost of living pressures, given the potential for interest rate cuts in 2025.
Also, while oversupply could drive further gross margin compression, Jarden expects management initiatives to offset further headwinds going forward.
New target price down to $1.90 from $2.10.
SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED ((SYR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden is reviewing the impact of Syrah Resources’ declaration of force majeure at the Balama mine in Mozambique that’s triggered default events on two debt facilities.
Jarden notes it’s unclear whether the second loan disbursement of US$47m on US International Development Finance Corp’s US$150m loan facility remains available to Syrah. The other debt facility is a fully-drawn US$102m from the US Department of Energy.
The broker considers the best possible outcome for shareholders to be a rapid resolution with the lenders, leading to a waiver of the default clause.
The worst outcome would be a requirement to repay one or both debt facilities. The latter would prove challenging without additional funding, given Syrah’s last reported cash balance of US$113m.
Jarden lowers the target price to $0.30 from $0.57 and downgrades its rating to Neutral from Overweight.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downgrade | |||||
| 1 | PETER WARREN AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS LIMITED | Buy | Buy | Jarden | |
| 2 | SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Jarden | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACE | Acusensus | $1.10 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.50 | 1.30 | 15.38% |
| BRE | Brazilian Rare Earths | $2.33 | Canaccord Genuity | 5.50 | 5.30 | 3.77% |
| DDR | Dicker Data | $8.32 | Petra Capital | 10.42 | 10.71 | -2.71% |
| DTL | Data#3 | $6.45 | Jarden | 8.25 | 8.54 | -3.40% |
| IDX | Integral Diagnostics | $2.90 | Jarden | 3.68 | 3.72 | -1.08% |
| IPX | Iperionx | $4.42 | Canaccord Genuity | 6.65 | 4.65 | 43.01% |
| MEK | Meeka Metals | $0.08 | Petra Capital | 0.14 | 0.15 | -6.67% |
| MMS | McMillan Shakespeare | $14.11 | Canaccord Genuity | 14.70 | 18.50 | -20.54% |
| NHC | New Hope | $4.91 | Goldman Sachs | 4.30 | 3.80 | 13.16% |
| PME | Pro Medicus | $250.23 | Goldman Sachs | 278.00 | 221.00 | 25.79% |
| PPT | Perpetual | $20.00 | Jarden | 24.20 | 22.70 | 6.61% |
| PWR | Peter Warren Automotive | $1.51 | Jarden | 1.90 | 2.10 | -9.52% |
| Moelis | 1.55 | 1.85 | -16.22% | |||
| SIQ | Smartgroup Corp | $7.63 | Canaccord Genuity | 8.50 | 10.65 | -20.19% |
| SYR | Syrah Resources | $0.18 | Jarden | 0.30 | 0.57 | -47.37% |
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
IDX INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices Overnight Price: $3.03
Jarden rates ((IDX)) as Buy (1)
Jarden notes the ACCC has approved the proposed merger between Integral Diagnostics and Capitol Health ((CAJ)) with the divestment of one clinic in Victoria.
The scheme implementation date is December 20 when new Integral Diagnostics shares will be issued to Capitol shareholders.
Jarden downgrades the EPS forecast by -3.8% due to the change in the merger timeline.
Target price slips by -1% to $3.68. The broker maintains a Buy rating and highlights the potential earnings upside consensus has yet to account for.
This report was published on December 10, 2024.
Target price is $3.68 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.65
If IDX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting upside of 10.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.80 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.80.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.5.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.90 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.41.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.6, implying annual growth of 32.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PME PRO MEDICUS LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices Overnight Price: $249.63
Goldman Sachs rates ((PME)) as Buy (1)
Goldman Sachs has raised FY26-27 earnings by 4-8% to reflect the inclusion of Trinity Health, partially offset by lower revenue growth in Australia and Europe.
The broker forecasts a strong increase in the value and cadence of contract wins over time, with material upside likely from outsized contracts over $100m.
The broker has raised its target price to $278 from $221, with rating maintained at Buy.
This report was published on December 11, 2024.
Target price is $278.00 Current Price is $249.63 Difference: $28.37
If PME meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $181.10, suggesting downside of -27.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 106.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 235.50.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.5, implying annual growth of 33.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 236.6.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 71.00 cents and EPS of 139.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 179.59.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 151.6, implying annual growth of 43.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 164.7.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco Overnight Price: $11.74
Jarden rates ((TWE)) as Buy (1)
Jarden believes Treasury Wine Estates remains “fundamentally undervalued.” The analyst forecasts Penfolds’ China returns to around 85% of its historical earnings levels by FY28 and two-thirds of previous peak volume.
There are no changes to the broker’s forecasts. Jarden highlights the company is increasingly skewed toward an improved business mix of luxury brands like Penfolds, Daou, Franks, and others, which have pricing power, excess demand, and are growing.
Buy rating or $14.10 target price are retained.
This report was published on December 10, 2024.
Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $11.74 Difference: $2.36
If TWE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 16.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 62.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.81.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.7, implying annual growth of 385.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 74.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.82.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.5, implying annual growth of 15.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PWR - PETER WARREN AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SYR - SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED