Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 04, 2025

This story features ACUSENSUS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ACE

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An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ACE   ALC   ASG   AX1   BBT   BMN   BRE   CMM   IGO (2)   KAR   KCN   LRK   MDR   OPT   PYC   SFR   TWE   VAU  

ACE    ACUSENSUS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $1.25

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ACE)) as Buy (1) –

Second quarter revenue for Acusensus reached $14.6m, up 4% quarter-on-quarter and 16% year-on-year, highlights Canaccord Genuity.

The broker explains growth was driven by new contract wins in South Australia and overseas, as well as key contract extensions in QLD and NSW, alongside inflation-linked price rises.

Total contracted value surged 58% in H1 to $325m, note the analysts, marking the strongest incremental increase in the company’s history.

Management is accelerating product innovation, launching its road worker safety technology with Fulton Hogan, and expanding in high-growth regions in the UK/US, highlights Canaccord.

The Buy rating and $1.50 target are unchanged.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.25
If ACE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 178.57.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 416.67.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALC    ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.07

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ALC)) as Buy (1) –

Alcidion Group’s 2Q revealed new total contract value (TCV) sales of $13.1m, a 152% increase quarter-on-quarter, with $8.2m from new customer wins.

Contracted FY25 revenue now sits at $30.8m, excluding the large North Cumbria Integrated Care NHS Foundation Trust contract, which is expected to contribute before year-end.

Operating cash flow outflow improved to -$259,000 from -$3.9m in the prior quarter, reflecting the benefits of cost reductions, lower staff costs, and the completion of restructuring expenses, highlight the analysts.

Management maintains FY25 positive earnings (EBITDA) guidance, requiring a $36m revenue run-rate, which the broker expects will be achieved through additional contract signings.

Canaccord retains a Buy rating with a target price of 9c.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.024
If ALC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASG    AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $1.67

Moelis rates ((ASG)) as Hold (3) –

Autosports Group downgraded 1H25 guidance, citing challenging trading conditions in November and December. The company now expects normalised profit before tax of $20m, down -29% on prior guidance of $28m and -64% year on year.

Moelis has lowered FY25-27 EPS by -9% to -22% reflecting a weaker revenue outlook and slower gross margin recovery.

Target price lowered to $1.67 from $2.0. Rating retained at Hold.

This report was published on February 2, 2025.

Target price is $1.67 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: $0
If ASG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 17.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.20 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of -45.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.80 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of 53.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AX1    ACCENT GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $2.12

Petra Capital rates ((AX1)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Accent Group’s trading update flagged a slowing in retail sales in the six weeks to Dec 29, rising just 1.8% amid ongoing promotional backdrop, compared with 1H25 like-for-like growth of 2.9%.

Gross margin is expected to be down -100bps versus -70bps at the time of Nov 21 AGM.

Petra Capital has extrapolated the softness in December into 2H25 estimates. These negative revisions are partially offset by model roll-forward, resulting in a cut in target price to $2.28 from $2.35. 

The broker now views the stock as trading at fair-value at 17.6x estimated FY25 PE and downgraded the rating to Hold from Buy.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $2.28 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $0.16
If AX1 meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 19.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 12.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.3, implying annual growth of 25.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.60 cents and EPS of 13.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.5, implying annual growth of 16.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BBT    BLUEBET HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $0.33

Taylor Collison rates ((BBT)) as Outperform (2) –

Taylor Collision notes BlueBet surprised by delivering positive EBITDA in 1H25, considerably ahead of schedule and sees the company as well-positioned to achieve its stated goal of 10% market share.

The broker expects the new Chair to utilise M&A in a disciplined fashion to help the company reach the requisite scale that will allow it to compete effectively.

The analyst notes the company is trading on 10.1x FY26 EV/EBITDA estimate and retains its Outperform rating. No target price.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Current Price is $0.33. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 300.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.64.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BMN    BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $2.88

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BMN)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Management at Bannerman Energy is progressing toward a final investment decision (FID) on the 3.5mlb per year Etango-8 uranium project in Namibia, highlights Canaccord Genuity, after reviewing the Decemberly quarterly release.

Early works remain on budget and schedule, observes the broker, with key milestones including water supply and site access road completion, along with contracts awarded for power supply, heap leach pad preparation, and critical processing equipment.

Securing a strategic partner remains the key hurdle, according to the analysts, with Bannerman exploring potential joint ventures and offtake agreements to support project financing.

Despite recent uranium market volatility, Canaccord remains bullish on long-term demand fundamentals, pointing to increasing nuclear capacity and potential upside from small modular reactors.

Speculative Buy rating and $4.33 target retained. 

This report was published on February 3, 2025.

Target price is $4.33 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $1.45
If BMN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 47.23.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 52.47.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRE    BRAZILIAN RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $2.20

Petra Capital rates ((BRE)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital believes Brazilian Rare Earths made significant progress during the December quarter, with metallurgical test work confirming favourable processing characteristics and drilling results implying stellar maiden resource.

The broker reckons there is sufficient fundamental evidence to have high confidence the resource and scoping study will deliver world-class results, and recommends investors to buy the stock ahead of these releases.

Key dates ahead include additional step-out drilling starts and the remaining 18 core drill results in the March quarter, followed by maiden resource at the Monte Alto project and scoping study results in the June quarter.

Target price $5.39 and rating retained at Buy.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $5.39 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $3.19
If BRE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 145% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.33.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.38.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $7.87

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CMM)) as Buy (1) –

Capricorn Metals’ December quarter gold production was in line with the broker’s and consensus estimates. Costs (AISC) fell by -10% to $1,490/oz, also aligning with expectations, while ore volumes increased, and strip ratios declined to 4.3 from 5 in the prior quarter.

FY25 guidance of 110-120koz at costs (AISC) of $1,370-1,470/oz remains unchanged.

Management has approved the Karlawinda Expansion Project, targeting a capacity increase to 6.5mtpa by June quarter 2026 at a capex of $120m. Steady-state production of 150koz per year at costs (AISC) of $1,700/oz over a ten-year mine life is expected.

Canaccord Genuity lowers the target price to $8.85 from $8.95 and retains a Buy rating.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $8.85 Current Price is $7.87 Difference: $0.98
If CMM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.75, suggesting downside of -1.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.3, implying annual growth of 74.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.3, implying annual growth of -2.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $4.78

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IGO)) as Sell (5) –

IGO’s 2Q production of 392kt from Greenbushes exceeded Canaccord Genuity’s expectations, though lower sales of 312kt missed forecasts due to port congestion.

Realised pricing fell by -16% quarter-on-quarter to US$736/t, contributing to a -18% and -15% sales miss versus the broker and consensus estimates, respectively.

The analysts highlight an EBITDA loss of -$105m at Kwinana, -90% worse than the September quarter, driven by net realisable value adjustments on lithium hydroxide and spodumene inventories.

Canaccord Genuity raises the target price to $4.40 from $4.30 and maintains a Sell rating.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.46, suggesting upside of 14.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of minus 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 19.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 119.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Goldman Sachs rates ((IGO)) as Buy (1) –

IGO Ltd’s 2Q25 spodumene production of 393kt exceeded Goldman Sachs forecast of 333kt but sales of 312kt came in below on timing of shipments.

The company reported net cash of $247m in the quarter, with no debt and undrawn facilities of $720m. The company previously noted it will seek to further optimise existing assets before deploying new capital.

With lithium joint venture FY25 budgets still being set, the company left FY25 guidance unchanged, noting the performance was supportive for 2H FY25.

The broker reiterated its Greenbushes mass balance analysis vs JV partners’ downstreams implies declining net long spodumene positions and limited risk to Greenbushes production.

The analyst doesn’t expect a dividend in 1H but expects a return in 2H. From the JV, the broker expects a dividend from FY26 as CGP3 capex spend ends.

Target price lowered to $5.60 from $6.05. Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $0.82
If IGO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.46, suggesting upside of 14.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 34.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR    KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.55

Goldman Sachs rates ((KAR)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs noted Karoon Energy reported strong 4Q24 result with production beating its estimate by 10% as Bauna recovered from unplanned maintenance over December.

The company intends to complete an additional US$75m over 2025 which the broker believes is a signal the stock is trading at a steep discount to its fundamental valuation.

Additionally, it reflects confidence the company maintains balance sheet capacity to potentially acquire the FPSO Cidade de Itajai vessel currently operated by Altera & Ocyan, the broker adds.

The broker revised FY24-25 EBITDA estimates by 5% and -8% respectively, primarily adjusting for accelerated Bauna production, higher maintenance operating expense at Bauna, and higher ongoing corporate costs.

Target price rises to $2.08 from $2.04. Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $2.08 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.525
If KAR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 35.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 36.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.32 cents and EPS of 24.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of -15.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KCN    KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.25

Canaccord Genuity rates ((KCN)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Kingsgate Consolidated’s December quarter gold production of 18koz, up by 13% quarter-on-quarter, missed Canaccord Genuity’s 21koz forecast due to grade reconciliation issues at Chatree.

Management expects an improvement in the second half, with higher grades and reduced reliance on stockpiled ore driving a 36% production increase and a -10% decline in costs (AISC).

FY25 guidance was lowered to the bottom end of production guidance and the upper end of cost (AISC) guidance.

The company’s balance sheet remains in a net debt position but is expected to transition to a net cash position by the June quarter, highlights the analysts, supported by rising production and favourable gold prices.

While the Nueva Esperanza reserve and resource update has been delayed to the March quarter, the broker continues to see the asset as undervalued.

Canaccord Genuity lowers its target price to $3.35 from $3.55 and retains a Speculative Buy rating.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $2.1
If KCN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 168% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.81.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.68.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LRK    LARK DISTILLING CO. LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $1.12

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LRK)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Lark Distilling’s 2Q net sales revenue exceeded Canaccord Genuity’s forecast, driven by strong domestic direct-to-consumer sales, incremental contributions from Global Travel Retail (GTR), and direct export sales.

Domestic B2B sales were softer year-on-year, observes the broker, due to distribution outsourcing and industrial action, though export sales were supported by a replenishment order from Singapore and a 12% increase in GTR revenue.

Management is investing in marketing ahead of a planned brand relaunch in the second half of FY25, with an expansion strategy focused on GTR and direct exports.

Canaccord leaves forecasts unchanged and highlights the need for sales growth acceleration into 2025 to meet expectations. A Speculative Buy rating and $1.50 target price are retained.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.38
If LRK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.67.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MDR    MEDADVISOR LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.17

Moelis rates ((MDR)) as Hold (3) –

Moelis reckons MedAdvisor’s 1H25 result was in line with the weak guidance provided in late December. The broker notes the company seemed reasonably confident of achieving prior guidance for a positive FY25 EBITDA but this is contingent on contract wins in 2H.

The broker highlights the risk of the company needing to look at alternative funding sources if 2H contract wins are weaker than expected. The broker also notes further cost reductions will be required should US revenue remain under pressure.

Moelis remain cautious on the stock until it has a clearer line of sight around the US operations. Rating remains at Hold, but target price is lowered to 21c on EPS downgrades of -57% and -34% in FY25 and FY26 respectively.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.045
If MDR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 55.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.25.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OPT    OPTHEA LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $1.05

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OPT)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Buy rating on Opthea with a target price of $1.25 following its investor day ahead of key Phase III trial updates. 

OPT-302 is unique and differentiated, in the broker’s view, on both safety and efficacy metrics, and the analysts see potential for peak sales of US$1bn and upside beyond $3 per share, pending clinical, regulatory, and commercial success.

The broker remains optimistic about the upcoming Phase III Coast and SHoRE study results, highlighting the similarity between Phase II and III designs and the strong efficacy signals seen previously.

A higher proportion of occult and polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy (PCV) patients in Phase III trials could improve the likelihood of positive outcomes, suggest the analysts.

The company is also progressing discussions on pricing and reimbursement, with Medicare payors indicating a willingness to support coverage if OPT-302 demonstrates a 20% improvement over the standard of care, explains the broker.

This report was published on January 29, 2025.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.2
If OPT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.08.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PYC    PYC THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $1.22

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PYC)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity observes progress across PYC Therapeutics’ clinical pipeline, noting upcoming catalysts including VP-001 (RP11) data readouts in May and PYC-003 (ADPKD) moving into human trials in the first half of 2025.

The autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) indication remains the most significant value driver, according to the broker, with a potential de-risked valuation contribution of $9 per share.

PYC Therapeutics ended the December quarter with $49.5m in cash, covering two to three quarters of operations, while R&D spending remains the primary cost driver, highlight the analysts.

Canaccord sees potential upside to $12 per share, assuming successful clinical, regulatory, and commercial execution across all lead programs. 

While US-listed peer Regulus Therapeutics’ gene therapy poses a competitive threat to the company’s asset, Canaccord notes the ADPKD market is very large with ample room for multiple players.

Target $2.40. Buy.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $1.18
If PYC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 97% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 122.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 122.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR    SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $9.74

Jarden rates ((SFR)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden highlights Sandfire Resources’ 2Q delivered a -US$57m net debt reduction and an earnings (EBITDA) beat, despite lower-than-expected production and sales.

Revenue of US$290m exceeded the broker’s forecast by 1%, while underlying group earnings (EBITDA) of US$134m was 2% ahead of expectations.

The broker highlights improved guidance at Motheo, with FY25 operating costs lowered by -7% and throughput guidance was raised to 5.6mt.

Copper production is expected to increase to 56kt in FY26-27, with potential for further upgrades.

Jarden raises its earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 9% for FY25, 8% for FY26, and 14% for FY27. Buy rating with an unchanged $11.00 target price.

This report was published on February 3, 2025.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.74 Difference: $1.26
If SFR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.28, suggesting upside of 5.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.05 cents and EPS of 57.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 9.15 cents and EPS of 89.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.6, implying annual growth of 64.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE    TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $10.51

Jarden rates ((TWE)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden highlights Treasury Wine Estates’ earnings growth potential, supported by premiumisation, improving Chinese demand, and cost synergies from DAOU Vineyards.

The company’s portfolio is increasingly skewed to luxury, with Penfolds remaining a key earnings driver. The broker forecasts a 14% EPS CAGR from FY25 to FY28, with margin improvements at Penfolds and DAOU.

China’s wine imports grew by 11.3% year-on-year in 2024, note the analysts, with Australian wine exports rising 34% in value, reaching 67% of pre-tariff levels. 

The target rises to $14.70 from $14.10. Buy.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $10.51 Difference: $4.19
If TWE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting upside of 29.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 63.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.1, implying annual growth of 381.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 75.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.2, implying annual growth of 16.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VAU    VAULT MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.39

Petra Capital rates ((VAU)) as Buy (1) –

Vault Minerals’ December quarter production and sales slightly missed Petra Capital’s forecast but costs came in at $2,268/oz, lower than the broker’s estimate of $2,365/oz.

The broker trimmed its FY25 production forecast by -1.1% to 400koz and lowered the cost estimate by -1.1%.

For FY26, the broker lowered the production estimate by -4% but raised the cost estimate by 4%. This, along with an upwardly revised AUD gold price profile, has resulted in an increase in target price to 51c from 49c.

Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $0.51 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.12
If VAU meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.48.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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