Daily Market Reports | Feb 13 2025
An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.
In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.
One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.
Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.
Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.
The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.
The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.
COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
AOV ARF BRG BSL BVS CPU CQE (2) CSL GDG RGN (2) RWC SUN TLS VSL
AOV AMOTIV LIMITED
Automobiles & Components - Overnight Price: $9.87
Wilsons rates ((AOV)) as Overweight (1) -
Wilsons assesses a soft 1H for Amotiv though suggests the market is excessively discounting the earnings outlook. The Overweight rating is maintained and the target eases to $12.70 from $12.71.
Normalised profit of $59m was flat but -4% below the analysts' forecast, driven by tan EBITA miss and a higher-than-expected interest expense.
During the half, the broker notes onging strength in the Powertrain and Undercar (P&U) division and Vision X in the Lighting segment, and a solid APG contribution, but underperformance in the Lighting, Power and Electrical (LP&E) division was disappointing.
This report was published on February 13, 2025.
Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $9.87 Difference: $2.83
If AOV meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.26, suggesting upside of 34.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 86.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.36.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.3, implying annual growth of 19.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 49.60 cents and EPS of 96.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.22.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 10.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ARF ARENA REIT
REITs - Overnight Price: $3.91
Moelis rates ((ARF)) as Hold (3) -
Arena REIT's 1H25 result was in line with Moelis' expectations, with the REIT also maintaining full-year dividend guidance of 18.25c.
The broker notes like-for-like rents grew by 3.2%, with 87% of FY25's rent roll benefiting from CPI links, and a further 8% subject to market reviews. The REIT's 18 market reviews during the half remain in negotiation with most subject to a 7.5% cap.
Hold rating maintained, and target price rises slightly to $3.98 from $3.95.
This report was published on February 12, 2025.
Target price is $3.98 Current Price is $3.91 Difference: $0.07
If ARF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 9.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 18.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.91.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 16.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 19.20 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.95.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of 2.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BRG BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED
Household & Personal Products - Overnight Price: $36.33
Jarden rates ((BRG)) as Neutral (3) -
Jarden believes Breville's 1H25 result was a material event, with the company de-risking earnings for the next three years and expanding in the second-biggest global economy. The broker sees risk to consensus sales remaining skewed on the upside
The result was a small beat vs consensus, and management guided to 5-10% EBIT growth in FY25, implying a downgrade to consensus of -10% at the mid-point.
The broker lowered its forecasts to the top of the EBIT guidance range, noting among other things, the forecast for deceleration in 2H25 Americas growth to 6% is conservative.
The broker's DCF-based valuation lifts substantially to reflect China in the longer-term forecasts, with higher EBITDA and terminal growth up by 50bp. Target price rises to $32.6 from $26.3. Neutral maintained.
This report was published on February 11, 2025.
Target price is $32.60 Current Price is $36.33 Difference: minus $3.73 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $38.36, suggesting upside of 5.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 94.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.49.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.8, implying annual growth of 12.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.1.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 105.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.47.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.4, implying annual growth of 14.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.1.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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