Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 13, 2025

This story features EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: APE

The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

APE   BHP (2)   BKW   CRD   HMC   IAG   IPH   MEI   PEN   PNR   QAL   RIO   RMD   RMS   RXL   SBM   SEK   SUN   TLS (2)   TPG   WJL  

APE    EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $15.53

Moelis rates ((APE)) as Hold (3) –

Moelis observes Eagers Automotive’s FY24 result showed a stronger 2H24 in a market where new car volumes fell -5%.

The company guided to a $1bn increase in revenue in FY25 from recent acquisitions, retail JV growth and solid order bank.

The broker notes the company’s order book rose 5% in January vs December which suggests the volume end of the new car market is stable.

In the short term, the broker sees headwinds from Chinese OEMs entry, federal election, PHEV changes and new vehicle efficiency standards which will keep industry-wide gross margins under pressure. 

The broker raised FY25-26 EPS by 17-18% on FY25 revenue growth guidance and stabilising gross margin in FY26, following a compression in FY25.

Target price lifts to $15.23 (it was $11.51 in August). Rating retained at Hold. 

This report was published on March 2, 2025.

Target price is $15.23 Current Price is $15.53 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If APE meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $15.56, suggesting upside of 2.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 76.90 cents and EPS of 101.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.9, implying annual growth of 25.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 82.60 cents and EPS of 107.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.1, implying annual growth of 5.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP    BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $38.95

Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs notes BHP Group’s 1H25 result was in line with forecast, but highlighted the copper division’s EBITDA was 6% higher than its estimate.

The broker remains bullish on copper and expects BHP’s copper EBITDA to increase by US$5bn to US$12bn by FY26 (45% of group EBITDA).  The analyst reiterated its view that the group’s net debt ceiling is “conservative.”

The broker lifted FY26 EBITDA estimate by 1% and lowered copper unit’s costs at Escondida and Spence going forward. Target price rises to $47.4 from $46.8, and Buy retained.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $47.40 Current Price is $38.95 Difference: $8.45
If BHP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.93, suggesting upside of 17.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 156.08 cents and EPS of 310.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 343.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 171.39 cents and EPS of 344.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 343.1, implying annual growth of -0.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 177.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs conducted a deep analysis of BHP Group and Rio Tinto’s ((RIO)) project pipelines, given both miners are back in investment mode. The broker estimates -US$50-60bn capex spending by each company excluding maintenance capex.

The broker estimates all growth capex for Rio would increase to -US$12-13bn per annum which is the same for BHP.

The broker notes Rio trades at a free cash flow yield of 7-8% until the medium-term vs 4% for BHP, with iron ore and copper divisions the biggest contributors.

From 2030 onwards, the broker expects BHP’s free cash flow to begin accelerating as key copper projects come into production.

The broker prefers Rio over BHP but notes BHP will partly maintain its premium due to ongoing superior margins and operating performance, particularly in Pilbara iron ore.

The analyst made minor changes to earnings estimates. Target price declines marginally to $47.3 from $47.4. Buy maintained.

This report was published on March 12, 2025.

Target price is $47.30 Current Price is $38.95 Difference: $8.35
If BHP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.93, suggesting upside of 17.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 156.08 cents and EPS of 310.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 343.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 171.39 cents and EPS of 344.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 343.1, implying annual growth of -0.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 177.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKW    BRICKWORKS LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $23.12

Jarden rates ((BKW)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

Ahead of 1H25 result, Brickworks released an earnings update expecting a -13% y/y fall in North American revenues that compared with Jarden’s forecast for a -8% decline. The company also flagged a significant fall in North America’s EBITDA margin.

For the Australian business, the broker expects 1H to be a trough for building products, with residential construction looking poised for a rebound.

The broker cut EPS estimates by an average -6%, with lower US building product profits largely offsetting an improved Australian business.

Target price falls to $25.60 from $29.10. Rating upgraded to Overweight from Neutral on valuation grounds.

This report was published on March 11, 2025.

Target price is $25.60 Current Price is $23.12 Difference: $2.48
If BKW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.40, suggesting upside of 28.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 97.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 124.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 71.00 cents and EPS of 142.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.9, implying annual growth of 25.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRD    CONRAD ASIA ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.80

Wilsons rates ((CRD)) as Overweight (1) –

Conrad Asia Energy announced the Indonesian Energy Ministry directed all Mako gas be made available for the domestic market via retailer PT PLN Energi Primer. 

Wilsons didn’t anticipate this development but notes the terms are favourable for Conrad and in line with the existing gas sales agreements which will now be terminated.

Looking forward, the broker believes a sell-down is imminent but its current model assumes a US$20m raising in 1H25 in case debt or sell-down doesn’t materialise.

Target price is $1.52 and rating remains Overweight.

This report was published on March 13, 2025.

Target price is $1.52 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.72
If CRD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.94.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.34.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HMC    HMC CAPITAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $7.36

Jarden rates ((HMC)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight (2) –

Jarden upgraded the rating on HMC Capital to Overweight from Underweight following the significant share price fall over the last three months.

The broker acknowledges ongoing challenges remain with its listed funds – HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW)) and Digico Infrastructure Reit Stapled Unit ((DGT)) but the price decline is still overdone.

The broker cut the target price to $8.65 from $9.95 to account for the risks in the uncertain macro environment but highlights a 17.5% upside risk if its 19% compounded growth for underlying EPS (FY25-28) comes to pass.

This report was published on March 12, 2025.

Target price is $8.65 Current Price is $7.36 Difference: $1.29
If HMC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.38, suggesting upside of 53.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 28.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.1, implying annual growth of 186.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 33.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.6, implying annual growth of -23.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $7.60

Goldman Sachs rates ((IAG)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs believes it is too early to know the full impact of ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred, noting as of March 11 22,400 claims were reported, up from 9,200 the day prior. Insurance Australia Group flagged 2,500 claims as of 7am on March 11.

The broker reckons the insurer is better positioned with claims cost likely to come in within maximum event retention after allowing for the Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation.

Additionally, the broker notes the cyclone reinsurance pool provides cover for damage up to 6am on March 10 which could provide substantial protection.

The broker highlights consensus forecast is for -$740m of perils costs over 2H25. This is -$100m extra vs the allowance but was already guided by the company prior to the cyclone.

Target price of $8.15 and Neutral rating are maintained.

This report was published on March 11, 2025.

Target price is $8.15 Current Price is $7.60 Difference: $0.55
If IAG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting upside of 13.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.4, implying annual growth of 21.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.9, implying annual growth of -3.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPH    IPH LIMITED

Legal – Overnight Price: $4.23

Petra Capital rates ((IPH)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital analysed patent filing applications specific to the Australian market and under the Patent Cooperation Treaty as it provides a gauge of forward workflow.

The broker notes in January, direct filings growth offset weak national phase filings but this was not the case in February with IPH Ltd’s filings down -17.7% vs -6.8% for the market.

The broker expects Australian filings to remain weak in 2H25, but comps to become easier from May/June and into 1H26.

No change to the broker’s forecasts. Target price unchanged at $8 and Buy rating retained.

This report was published on March 12, 2025.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $4.23 Difference: $3.77
If IPH meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.49, suggesting upside of 48.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.6, implying annual growth of 85.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 36.40 cents and EPS of 47.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.4, implying annual growth of 6.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MEI    METEORIC RESOURCES NL

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.07

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MEI)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes global resources at Meteoric Resources’ Caldeira project rose by 50% to 1.1Bt at 2,413 total rare earth oxides and measured mineral resources increased by 91% to 589Mt.

The broker highlights the updated resource estimate confirms the project’s status as a global top 3 ionic clay deposit.

The broker sees the increase as positive for the upcoming PFS, noting the 2024 scoping study was based on 98Mt measured resource vs 589Mt now.

Target price of 40c and Speculative Buy rating unchanged.

This report was published on March 12, 2025.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.335
If MEI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 515% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PEN    PENINSULA ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $0.68

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PEN)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity has delayed its forecast for the first U308 production at the Lance Project to the September quarter from June which compares with Peninsula Energy’s forecast for the June quarter (pushed back from March).

The broker’s reasons include issues hiring skilled labour, restructuring delays with change in management, and general conservatism following new-end processing capacity.

The company had US$49.9m cash balance in December and announced it is in discussions for additional funding with the US government and international financiers.

Target price cut to $2.18 from $2.50. Speculative Buy maintained.

This report was published on March 11, 2025.

Target price is $2.18 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $1.5
If PEN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 221% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.71.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.70.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNR    PANTORO LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.14

Moelis rates ((PNR)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Pantoro’s 1H25 result was mixed in Moelis’ view with EBITDA beating its forecast but D&A coming at $56.2m vs the broker’s $40.8m estimate.

The broker made minor revisions to forecasts with the key one being higher D&A and higher interest rate assumption on leases.

No change to the 15c target price. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy following recent share price gains.

The broker sees a higher output forecast of 100koz from 90koz pushing valuation to 20c/share.

This report was published on March 12, 2025.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.005
If PNR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.17.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.08.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAL    QUALITAS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $2.52

Jarden rates ((QAL)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden notes Qualitas’ dry powder was at $1.05bn as of December, representing 11% of committed funds under management and the lowest on record.

The broker estimates it could fall further to $0.1-1.0bn, making it likely the investment manager will do strong fundraising in 2H25. The analyst forecasts $1.0bn fundraising in 2H and $1.2bn in 1H26 but sees significant upside risk.

The broker highlights every additional $1.0bn capital equals $9.5m of management fees and 12-15% upside risk to its EPS estimate.

Target price of $4 and Buy rating are unchanged.

This report was published on March 11, 2025.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $1.48
If QAL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 11.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.36.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 13.60 cents and EPS of 14.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.38.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO    RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $117.23

Goldman Sachs rates ((RIO)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs conducted a deep analysis of Rio Tinto and BHP Group’s ((BHP)) project pipelines, given both miners are back in investment mode. The broker estimates -US$50-60bn capex spending by each company excluding maintenance capex.

After incorporating the Arcadium Lithium acquisition, the broker estimates all growth capex for Rio would increase to -US$12-13bn per annum which is the same for BHP.

However, the broker notes Rio trades at a free cash flow yield of 7-8% until the medium-term vs 4% for BHP, with iron ore and copper divisions the biggest contributors. The broker also expects Rio to widen the production gap with BHP over the next five years.

As a result, Goldman Sachs prefers Rio over BHP.

The analyst made minor changes to FY25-26 EBITDA estimates. Target price declines marginally to $143.5 from $143.7 on increase in net debt from the Arcadium Lithium acquisition. Buy maintained.

This report was published on March 12, 2025.

Target price is $143.50 Current Price is $117.23 Difference: $26.27
If RIO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $126.42, suggesting upside of 9.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 627.39 cents and EPS of 1040.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1172.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 683.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 627.39 cents and EPS of 1040.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1003.5, implying annual growth of -14.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 601.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMD    RESMED INC

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $35.73

Goldman Sachs rates ((RMD)) as Buy (1) –

ResMed is on Goldman Sachs’ conviction list with a Buy rating and target price of $49.

The rating is underpinned by expectations of continued robust new patient growth for CPAP therapy despite the market entry of GLP-1 drugs to treat OSA, and further market share gains.

Upcoming catalysts include the rollout of AirSense 11 in China and South America which the broker expects in 2025. The broker is also looking forward to new product launches such as devices, masks and accessories in the coming years which could mean margin accretion.

This report was published on March 12, 2025.

Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $35.73 Difference: $13.27
If RMD meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.38, suggesting upside of 26.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 32.14 cents and EPS of 145.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 150.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 39.79 cents and EPS of 163.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 164.7, implying annual growth of 9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMS    RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.11

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RMS)) as Buy (1) –

Ramelius Resources published an updated life-of-mine (LOMP) for Mt Magnet which extended mine life by seven years, increased production from FY26-34, and lifted capex forecasts significantly to -$833m from -$293m in the previous LOMP.

Canaccord Genuity estimates the revised mine plan can be fully funded from existing cash ($502m in December) and ongoing operating cash flows.

The broker revised its forecasts to align with the new LOMP, resulting in a downward revision to free cash flow forecasts for FY27-28.

Target price cut to $2.90 (was $3.25 in November) and Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on March 12, 2025.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.79
If RMS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 12.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 65.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of -34.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RXL    ROX RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.28

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RXL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes Rox Resources has completed around 64% of the drilling across the Youanmi Gold Project and the latest results show the potential to bring forward shallow, high-grade ounces in the DFS mine plan.

The broker’s current modelling aligns with the PFS but it notes an expanded 1Mtpa run rate could be achieved by bringing forward the Pollard decline in the mine plan to produce 130kozpa for six years across Youanmi. Current forecast is for 103kozpa over 7.7 years.

No change to 56c target price and Speculative Buy rating.

This report was published on March 11, 2025.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.28
If RXL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.33.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 28.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SBM    ST. BARBARA LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.20

Petra Capital rates ((SBM)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital notes St. Barbara downgraded the FY25 production forecast and increased the cost estimate citing delays in accessing planned higher-grade ore.

The new guidance for production is -13-15% lower and cost is 17-22% higher than the previous guidance, leading the broker to update its estimates.

Target price cut to 85c from 90c (which was an upgrade on March 7 from 64c).

The previous upgrade was the result of the broker raising its forecast for the gold price by 11% to US$2,580/oz for 2025-2029, and by 15% to US$2,300 post-2029.

This was on expectations of continued demand for gold for risk diversification and as a currency alternative to the US dollar. St. Barbara is among the broker’s preferred gold producer stocks. Buy rating stays.

This report was published on March 11, 2025.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.655
If SBM meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 336% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.48.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.86.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SEK    SEEK LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services – Overnight Price: $22.36

Goldman Sachs rates ((SEK)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) –

Goldman Sachs notes the Seek Employment Index rose 5.1% sequentially in January, marking the biggest jump since October 2021. While Seek had factored it in FY25 guidance, the broker reckons this could lead to a stronger volume trajectory in FY26.

The broker pushed the FY26 growth forecast by 1%, leading to a 3% rise in EBITDA estimate.

Target price rises to $25 from $24. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell following share price weakness.

This report was published on March 11, 2025.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $22.36 Difference: $2.64
If SEK meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.21, suggesting upside of 23.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 55.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of 45.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN    SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $19.03

Goldman Sachs rates ((SUN)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs believes it is too early to know the full impact of ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred, noting as of March 11 22,400 claims were reported, up from 9,200 the day prior. Suncorp Group flagged 7,800 claims as of 7am on March 11, with 7,200 claims related to home.

The broker notes the cyclone reinsurance pool provides cover for damage up to 6am on March 10 which could provide substantial protection to the insurers.

Suncorp’s maximum event retention is $350m, and the insurer also retains residual protection in its Queensland home reinsurance.

The broker highlights consensus forecast is for -$855m of perils costs over 2H25. This is -$75m extra vs 2H allowance 

Target price is $24.67. Buy retained. 

This report was published on March 11, 2025.

Target price is $24.67 Current Price is $19.03 Difference: $5.64
If SUN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.55, suggesting upside of 8.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 80.00 cents and EPS of 134.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.2, implying annual growth of 2.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 84.00 cents and EPS of 119.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 115.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLS    TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.09

Jarden rates ((TLS)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden describes Telstra Group’s 1H25 result as solid but notes this was overshadowed by a surprise $750m share buyback and higher dividend.

The broker has incorporated an additional share buyback of $1.5bn in its forecasts based on the free cash flow framework provided by the company.

The broker looks forward to investor day in 2H for further clarity on capital management plans.

Target price rises to $4.30 from $4.20. Overweight maintained.

This report was published on February 21, 2025.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.21
If TLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.24, suggesting upside of 2.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 35.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.0, implying annual growth of 9.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((TLS)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes focus on Telstra Group’s free cash flow (FCF) has increased following the surprise $750m share buyback announcement last month.

The broker believes continued growth in the mobile market, cost control and margin expansion, and limited capex pressures will drive profit and FCF growth for the company. The broker forecasts ex-spectrum FCF to grow to $3.65bn by FY28 from $2.16bn in FY24.

Jarden believes the company can sustainably increase its dividend to the mid-20c range by FY28 with franking credit the key impediment to a higher dividend. The broker also reiterated the forecast for an additional $1.5bn share buyback to FY28.

No change to $4.30 target price and Overweight rating.

This report was published on March 12, 2025.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.21
If TLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.24, suggesting upside of 2.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 35.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.0, implying annual growth of 9.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPG    TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.38

Jarden rates ((TPG)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden assesses TPG Telecom’s capital management options if the proposed sale to Vocus is completed, along with the implications of free cash flows (FCF) for dividends and share buyback.

The broker believes continued growth in the mobile market, cost control and margin expansion, and limited capex pressures will drive profit and FCF growth for the company.

The broker forecasts ex-spectrum FCF to grow to $865m by FY28 from $391m in FY24 but cautions providing headroom for spectrum payments is important when assessing capital management options.

The broker believes the company’s dividend framework is unsustainable but it could pay a special dividend of $1.23/share if the transaction with Vocus is completed.

Target price cut to $5.10 from $5.20 and Overweight maintained.

This report was published on March 12, 2025.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: $0.72
If TPG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.79, suggesting upside of 8.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 21.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 24.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WJL    WEBJET GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $0.65

Wilsons rates ((WJL)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) –

Wilsons initiated coverage of Webjet Group with an Overweight rating and target price of 97c.

The broker notes the company has expanded its EBITDA margin to 45% in FY24 from 40% in FY19 despite headwinds from weakness in domestic flight bookings and constraints from global motorhome supply.

Looking ahead, the broker sees near-to-medium-term growth opportunities from domestic flight booking recovery, further growth in international flight bookings, including other related services, and potential recovery in GoSee. The broker also sees an opportunity for online channel growth.

The analyst forecasts FY25 EBITDA of $38.8m compared to the company’s guidance of around $39.1m. For FY26, the broker estimates 11% lift in EBITDA on cost-out in GoSee and growth in international bookings.

Key risks include loss of market share and macro weakness.

This report was published on March 12, 2025.

Target price is $0.97 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.32
If WJL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 3.40 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.83.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don’t have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide experienced, intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.

This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

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