Daily Market Reports | 12:52 PM
An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.
In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.
One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.
Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.
Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.
The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
APE BHP (2) BKW CRD HMC IAG IPH MEI PEN PNR QAL RIO RMD RMS RXL SBM SEK SUN TLS (2) TPG WJL
APE EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED
Automobiles & Components - Overnight Price: $15.53
Moelis rates ((APE)) as Hold (3) -
Moelis observes Eagers Automotive's FY24 result showed a stronger 2H24 in a market where new car volumes fell -5%.
The company guided to a $1bn increase in revenue in FY25 from recent acquisitions, retail JV growth and solid order bank.
The broker notes the company's order book rose 5% in January vs December which suggests the volume end of the new car market is stable.
In the short term, the broker sees headwinds from Chinese OEMs entry, federal election, PHEV changes and new vehicle efficiency standards which will keep industry-wide gross margins under pressure.
The broker raised FY25-26 EPS by 17-18% on FY25 revenue growth guidance and stabilising gross margin in FY26, following a compression in FY25.
Target price lifts to $15.23 (it was $11.51 in August). Rating retained at Hold.
This report was published on March 2, 2025.
Target price is $15.23 Current Price is $15.53 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If APE meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $15.56, suggesting upside of 2.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 76.90 cents and EPS of 101.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.33.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.9, implying annual growth of 25.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 82.60 cents and EPS of 107.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.51.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.1, implying annual growth of 5.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BHP BHP GROUP LIMITED
Bulks - Overnight Price: $38.95
Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) -
Goldman Sachs notes BHP Group's 1H25 result was in line with forecast, but highlighted the copper division's EBITDA was 6% higher than its estimate.
The broker remains bullish on copper and expects BHP's copper EBITDA to increase by US$5bn to US$12bn by FY26 (45% of group EBITDA). The analyst reiterated its view that the group's net debt ceiling is "conservative."
The broker lifted FY26 EBITDA estimate by 1% and lowered copper unit's costs at Escondida and Spence going forward. Target price rises to $47.4 from $46.8, and Buy retained.
This report was published on February 18, 2025.
Target price is $47.40 Current Price is $38.95 Difference: $8.45
If BHP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.93, suggesting upside of 17.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 156.08 cents and EPS of 310.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.54.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 343.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 171.39 cents and EPS of 344.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.31.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 343.1, implying annual growth of -0.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 177.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) -
Goldman Sachs conducted a deep analysis of BHP Group and Rio Tinto's ((RIO)) project pipelines, given both miners are back in investment mode. The broker estimates -US$50-60bn capex spending by each company excluding maintenance capex.
The broker estimates all growth capex for Rio would increase to -US$12-13bn per annum which is the same for BHP.
The broker notes Rio trades at a free cash flow yield of 7-8% until the medium-term vs 4% for BHP, with iron ore and copper divisions the biggest contributors.
From 2030 onwards, the broker expects BHP's free cash flow to begin accelerating as key copper projects come into production.
The broker prefers Rio over BHP but notes BHP will partly maintain its premium due to ongoing superior margins and operating performance, particularly in Pilbara iron ore.
The analyst made minor changes to earnings estimates. Target price declines marginally to $47.3 from $47.4. Buy maintained.
This report was published on March 12, 2025.
Target price is $47.30 Current Price is $38.95 Difference: $8.35
If BHP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.93, suggesting upside of 17.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 156.08 cents and EPS of 310.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.54.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 343.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 171.39 cents and EPS of 344.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.31.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 343.1, implying annual growth of -0.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 177.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BKW BRICKWORKS LIMITED
Building Products & Services - Overnight Price: $23.12
Jarden rates ((BKW)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) -
Ahead of 1H25 result, Brickworks released an earnings update expecting a -13% y/y fall in North American revenues that compared with Jarden's forecast for a -8% decline. The company also flagged a significant fall in North America's EBITDA margin.
For the Australian business, the broker expects 1H to be a trough for building products, with residential construction looking poised for a rebound.
The broker cut EPS estimates by an average -6%, with lower US building product profits largely offsetting an improved Australian business.
Target price falls to $25.60 from $29.10. Rating upgraded to Overweight from Neutral on valuation grounds.
This report was published on March 11, 2025.
Target price is $25.60 Current Price is $23.12 Difference: $2.48
If BKW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.40, suggesting upside of 28.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 97.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.64.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 124.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 71.00 cents and EPS of 142.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.26.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.9, implying annual growth of 25.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CRD CONRAD ASIA ENERGY LIMITED
Crude Oil - Overnight Price: $0.80
Wilsons rates ((CRD)) as Overweight (1) -
Conrad Asia Energy announced the Indonesian Energy Ministry directed all Mako gas be made available for the domestic market via retailer PT PLN Energi Primer.
Wilsons didn't anticipate this development but notes the terms are favourable for Conrad and in line with the existing gas sales agreements which will now be terminated.
Looking forward, the broker believes a sell-down is imminent but its current model assumes a US$20m raising in 1H25 in case debt or sell-down doesn't materialise.
Target price is $1.52 and rating remains Overweight.
This report was published on March 13, 2025.
Target price is $1.52 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.72
If CRD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.94.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.34.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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