Weekly Reports | Jun 03 2025
This story features BOSS ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Insights into how hedge funds have captured the uranium market to achieve defined outcomes, as short interests counter positive longer term demand drivers.
-Thin illiquid markets avail themselves to funds who can engineer pricing outcomes
-Short interests dip slightly, but no respite for ASX U308 stocks
-Positive pricing signals the U308 cycle is at an inflection point
-Stocks in focus for the week that was
By Danielle Ecuyer
Unraveling the U3O8 market dynamics
Goehring & Rozencwajg’s first quarter 2025 Natural Resource Market Commentary offered some revealing insights into the short interest activity by speculators in the uranium market.
The researchers explain how hedge funds back in 2018 would acquire shares in uranium producers and then purchase a “sizable” position in what later became the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, post the acquisition of the Uranium Participation Corporation in July 2021.
By buying units in the closed-end fund, the market price of the units was pushed above the underlying net asset value, which allowed the Trust to issue new shares to realign its share price to net asset value.
In turn, the new capital raised would be used to acquire physical U3O8, which would place upward pressure on the spot price, which in turn would boost the share prices of uranium stocks, benefiting the funds’ holdings.
The Sprott Trust was highlighted as being upfront about purchasing surplus supply held by traders and utilities in stockpiles post-Fukushima.
In July 2021, spot U3O8 traded at US$32/lb and the Sprott Trust held 18.2mlbs. By January 2024, the spot price reached a peak of US$106/lb, rising nearly six times since the low of 2017 with Sprott Trust owning 63mlbs.
Goehring & Rozencwajg propose at that point, the uranium market was due for a price correction. In the same way the funds could work the markets to the upside, their actions could be reversed and applied to create downside pressures.
The same funds that rode the uplift through leveraging the Sprott Trust now moved to use the same technique to push it down. The Trust became an “instrument” of choice to promote bearish and negative sentiment.
By selling shares in the Sprott Trust, the short sellers push the market value to a discount to net asset value. This stops the Trust from issuing new shares and buying more physical uranium, but it also raises the spectre of the Trust needing to sell stock to pay for its annual administration costs.
Until May 9, when the Trust announced it had secured a non-brokered private placement raising US$25.5m, which is expected to cover the operating costs for the next year, market speculation believed the Trust would be forced to offload physical stock.
This event would have been even more negative for the spot price and in turn for share prices of uranium companies, where the funds have amassed sizeable short positions, particularly in Australian listed stocks.
The Trust further stated it has no intention of selling any of the physical uranium it holds for investors.
The latest ASIC-reported short positions as at May 26 show Boss Energy ((BOE)) still the most shorted on the ASX200 at 21.2% of its capital, down slightly from 21.7% a week earlier.
Paladin Energy ((PDN)) resides in second position at 15.3%; Deep Yellow ((DYL)) in eighth position at 11.03%, down from 11.63%; and Lotus Resources is down to 7.75% from 8.61%.
Global momentum for nuclear energy continues
FNArena’s weekly uranium update has been writing extensively on the disconnect between the short positions versus the “Make Uranium Great Again” thematic, as articulately depicted by Morgan Stanley this week.
The US Administration is targeting a fourfold increase in US nuclear capacity by 2050 to 400GW, which equates to commencing construction of twenty average-sized reactors each year to 2040, four times the rate being pursued by China.
It is not only the US, the trend across Europe and parts of Asia is a key reversal from winding down or phasing out nuclear energy to extending the life of existing plants and restarting decommissioned facilities.
Bloomberg reported in the last week, Spain’s three largest utilities have proposed an extension to the lifespan of the country’s largest nuclear plant, Almaraz, which was due to be shut down in 2027-28.
The change signals a reversal of Spain’s target to shut down seven nuclear reactors by 2035 that was agreed upon some six years ago.
China is also flexing its nuclear muscles, with the country’s National Nuclear Safety Administration reported as in talks with the Kazakh Atomic Energy Agency to construct Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant, at a considerably lower cost than other competitors, including Russia’s Rosatom.
Morgan Stanley remains positive on the outlook for uranium and believes the ambitious target from the US Administration just emphasises a global policy shift towards nuclear energy, which reinforces the longer-term demand story.
Given the long lead times to build new capacity, the analyst explains there is minimal near-term impact on uranium demand, but the US targets could act to re-awaken interest in the sector from investors. The increase in interest and activity from utilities is also flagged as a positive development.
Citi also makes some interesting observations on the U3O8 markets.
The Citi analyst proposes similar dynamics, which signal a turning point is unfolding in reverse to the action around the recent peak in the U3O8 spot price during the first half of 2024.
With a decline in the conversion price to US$69/lb from US$80/lb and enrichment prices steady at US$185/SWU (SWU stands for Separative Work Unit, which is the standard unit used to measure the effort required to enrich uranium), the ratio of U3O8/SWU is around 0.36 from 0.35 in April. Citi infers this historically has indicated an inflection point with higher U3O8 prices to follow.
Citi highlights uranium is about to enter its next “bull phase” and suggests investors accumulate miners before replacement-rate contracting recommences in what is viewed as an under-supplied market.
What happened in May
Industry consultant TradeTech reports the U3O8 spot price ended up US$3.50/lb over the month to US$72/lb, including a total of one million pounds of spot uranium traded.
Activity was tempered at the end of last week with market participants traveling to the World Nuclear Fuel Market conference in Sydney, starting on June 2.
Utilities re-entered the mid- and long-term markets over May with fifteen transactions for delivery later in 2025 and in the first half of 2026. TradeTech highlights this is the second consecutive month where activity has been higher than normal for delivery in this period.
Utilities also committed to over 15mlbs of U3O8 in several transactions for periods between 2028 through to 2040.
TradeTech’s Long-term U3O8 price indicator remained at US$80/lb over the month, and the Mid-term price indicator rose US$3 to US$75/lb as at May 31, from April’s month-end value. The consultant’s cost price indicator remained unchanged from the previous month at US$58.30/lb.
Last week, TradeTech’s spot price indicator remained unchanged at US$72/lb, with most of the concluded transactions outside of the spot delivery window.
What the brokers are saying
Citi switched its preference to Paladin from Boss Energy, with the latter having outperformed the market by over 70% since December, attributed to the low-cost profile and management execution. Much of the good news is viewed as being priced into the stock.
In contrast, as the Langer Heinrich mine ramps up, the difference between the Paladin share price and the net asset value is expected to narrow, which should result in a higher valuation alongside an expected pick-up in U3O8 prices.
Both stocks are Buy rated. Targets set at $4.60 for Boss, up from $3.30, and Paladin at $10.10 from $10.20.
Petra Capital believes NexGen Energy ((NXG)) is a microcosm of what is happening in uranium markets.
Despite the plethora of positive demand-side news over May, as also outlined in our weekly updates, the supply side continues to suffer from delays and remains “fragile”.
NexGen, as highlighted by the analyst, has confirmed the final approval hearing for Rook in February 2026, with first production not likely until the mid-2030s, which is a two-year delay from the original slated start date.
Petra has adjusted its target price for the stock down to $10.74 from $14.33, reflecting the absence of a premium valuation until approval is confirmed, despite Rook I being viewed as a strategic long-life asset. The stock remains Buy rated.
The analyst believes the stand-off between potential suppliers and utilities will result in expected higher U3O8 prices for a longer period and has pushed out its U3O8 price forecast to US$100/lb from June quarter 2025 to December quarter, out to March quarter 2030, when the price is only then expected to decline below US$100/lb.
Turning to changing dynamics in the US uranium market, MST Access shone a light on Global Uranium Enrichment ((GUE)) with the recent acquisition of Pine Ridge, a large-scale uranium project, through a 50:50 joint venture with Snow Lake Energy.
The micro-sized company also has a 21.6% stake in Ubaryon, an Australian uranium enrichment technology company, with Urenco expected to take a 15% stake, which MST states is verification of Ubaryon’s technology.
The analyst has a valuation of 23c per share on Global Uranium Enrichment, which curently has a market capitalisation of $30m.
For more reading about what happened in May check out the latest weekly updates from FNArena
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/05/27/uranium-week-trumps-agressive-nuclear-push/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/05/20/uranium-week-europes-nuclear-about-face/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/05/13/uranium-week-a-fundamental-disconnect/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 30/05/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.10 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 30/05/2025 | 0.1300 |  -10.71% |
$0.19 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 30/05/2025 | 0.0300 | – 6.06% |
$0.06 | $0.02 | $0.100 |  233.3% |
|
| AKN | 30/05/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 30/05/2025 | 0.0500 | – 3.92% |
$0.17 | $0.05 | |||
| BKY | 30/05/2025 | 0.5300 | 6.86% |
$0.66 | $0.30 | |||
| BMN | 30/05/2025 | 2.8100 | – 2.39% |
$4.37 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 67.3% |
|
| BOE | 30/05/2025 | 3.8800 | – 7.03% |
$4.64 | $1.99 | 218.4 | $4.159 | 7.2% |
| BSN | 30/05/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 30/05/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.03 | |||
| CXO | 30/05/2025 | 0.0800 | – 4.26% |
$0.14 | $0.06 | $0.100 | 25.0% |
|
| CXU | 30/05/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 30/05/2025 | 0.0800 | – 2.20% |
$0.44 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 30/05/2025 | 1.3000 | – 4.95% |
$1.74 | $0.75 | -1310.0 | $1.570 | 20.8% |
| EL8 | 30/05/2025 | 0.2800 | – 9.68% |
$0.51 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 30/05/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 30/05/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 30/05/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 30/05/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.11 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 30/05/2025 | 0.0600 | – 1.79% |
$0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 30/05/2025 | 0.1200 | – 9.09% |
$1.03 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 30/05/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.18 | $0.04 | |||
| LAM | 30/05/2025 | 0.7200 | 0.00% | $1.04 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 30/05/2025 | 0.1800 | – 4.88% |
$0.47 | $0.13 | $0.325 | 80.6% |
|
| MEU | 30/05/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 30/05/2025 | 9.5800 | 0.71% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $14.650 | 52.9% |
|
| ORP | 30/05/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.10 | $0.03 | |||
| PDN | 30/05/2025 | 6.0400 | – 0.64% |
$15.90 | $3.93 | -239.3 | $8.493 | 40.6% |
| SLX | 30/05/2025 | 3.4400 | 1.12% |
$6.62 | $2.28 | $6.500 | 89.0% |
|
| TOE | 30/05/2025 | 0.1800 | – 5.00% |
$0.38 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 30/05/2025 | 0.0300 | – 6.67% |
$0.04 | $0.01 |
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL - DEEP YELLOW LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GUE - GLOBAL URANIUM AND ENRICHMENT LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NXG - NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED