Daily Market Reports | 8:46 AM
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With US markets closed for Juneteenth, ongoing Middle East tensions overshadowed Asian and European markets, and thus share markets retreated.
After a slightly weaker to flat close for the ASX200 on Thursday, when CommBank ((CBA)) posted a new record high, SPI futures are pointing to a softer open on Friday.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8496.00 | – 23.00 | – 0.27% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8523.70 | – 7.50 | – 0.09% |
| S&P500 | 5980.87 | – 1.85 | – 0.03% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 19546.27 | + 25.18 | 0.13% |
| DJIA | 42171.66 | – 44.14 | – 0.10% |
| S&P500 VIX | 22.17 | + 0.57 | 2.64% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.40 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| USD Index | 98.46 | + 0.05 | 0.05% |
| FTSE100 | 8791.80 | – 51.67 | – 0.58% |
| DAX30 | 23057.38 | – 260.43 | – 1.12% |
Good Morning,
Markets are lacking direction as President Trump weighs in again on the Israel/Iran conflict with a two-week window of diplomacy. Markets don’t like uncertainty and there is plenty of that to go around.
What happened overnight, NAB Markets Today Research
Oil trimmed earlier gains and US equity futures remained under pressure after White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Trump will decide within two weeks whether to back Israel militarily in its conflict with Iran. WTI futures fell from an intra day high of US$77.58 to US$75.60, while Brent held above US$78/bbl.
S&P500 futures slipped -0.9% in thin Juneteenth holiday trading. European equities extended their losing streak, with the Stoxx600 down -0.8%, and Asian markets fell -1.4%, led by Japan and South Korea.
Yesterday, the message from Trump was he was considering strikes on Iran within days. Overnight comments from White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt now suggest the decision is going to be within weeks.
Leavitt also noted the President saw the potential for negotiation, noting the president had said (dictated) “based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future”.
While the news the US administration is not considering an imminent strike should be considered as positive, opening the door for negotiation, price action (higher oil prices, softer equities) would suggest investors remain very nervous. An escalation in the conflict carries the risk of oil supply disruptions with some scenarios predicting prices as high as US$130 to US$150 a barrel if Iran retaliates in a major way.
Central Banks’ policy meetings news has been the other overnight theme to watch. The Norges Bank surprised with a -25bps cut to 4.25%, bringing forward its easing path and projecting nearly -150bps of cuts by end-2027. NOK weakened on the news ending the day down by -0.62%
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) also cut by -25bp to 0%, as expected, but signaled reluctance to return to negative rates. President Schlegel noted the bank would use FX intervention to manage franc strength, if needed. Not withstanding the SNB cut, and true to its safe haven attribute, the Swiss Franc managed to outperform the USD, up 0.2% over the past 24 hours.
The BoE held rates at 4.25%, but the 6-3 vote split surprised markets. Deputy Governor Ramsden joined the dovish camp, reinforcing expectations for an August cut. Gilts initially rallied but ended lower, with traders now fully pricing two more cuts this year. GBP traded lower on the BoE headlines, but then broad USD weakness became a bigger driver (US news on Iran) with the pound ending the session at the top of the G10 leader board, up 0.32% and at 1.3469.
Looking at the price action over the past 24 hours, the USD index ended flat after paring earlier gains. The greenback’s strength was most notable against the antipodeans, with AUD and NZD both around 0.6/0.5%. AUD/USD slipped below 0.65 before recovering slightly (now at 0.6474), while NZD/USD broke below 0.60 (now at 0.5980). USD/JPY pushed higher to 145.77, eyeing resistance at 146.28.
Yesterday, Australia got its labour market report for May. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% (consensus 4.1%; NAB 4.1%) and has been averaging 4.0-4.1% in a trend sense since March 2024.
The surprise in May was employment which fell -2.5k (consensus 21.2k; NAB 30.0k) after having increased by 87.6k in April. Looking through the volatility, trend employment growth has been averaging around 28k a month. NAB still expects a July RBA rate cut, and terminal at 3.1% by November, stable unemployment suggests little rationale to cut below neutral.
US treasuries had the day off (Juneteenth holiday) and looking at the 10y UST future, the indicative move on the 10y UST yields is for the benchmark yield to be essentially unchanged at 4.39%. European bond curves bear-steepened, amid inflation concerns.
Gold was little changed near US$3,369/oz, holding recent gains amid geopolitical uncertainty. Analysts noted safe-haven flows are beginning to rotate into platinum and silver.
Technically, gold remains bullish, with resistance at US$3,435.6 and support at US$3,279.1/oz.
The View: Risk Repricing in Real Time: Bunker Diplomacy Meets Assassination Rhetoric: Stephen Innes, SPI Asset Management
Markets are no longer trading macro; they’re trading war posture. The Middle East board is now fully lit, and the players have tossed the rule book. While Western leaders scramble to stitch together a nuclear off-ramp with Iran, sans Russia or China, who’ve ghosted the process like they’ve already priced in the chaos; Israel’s turned the dial to maximum pressure. And the rhetoric isn’t just hawkish, it’s apocalyptic.
Netanyahu isn’t mincing words, he’s openly threatening to assassinate Ayatollah Khamenei, branding him the “modern Hitler” and declaring that “no one is immune.” When one side invokes bunker busters and the other calls for martyrdom, you don’t need a Bloomberg terminal to know this isn’t a risk-off pause, it’s a geopolitical crescendo.
Markets are digesting this in real time. What should’ve been a quiet re-calibration window, thanks to Trump’s two-week “maybe yes, maybe no” stance, it’s now spiraling into an options trader’s nightmare. Volatility is still under-pricing what’s clearly a market scenario loaded with thermobaric tension. The “can has been kicked”, but it’s rolling downhill toward a munitions depot.
The underlying current here isn’t just about the next strike, it’s about escalation logic. When a head of state openly floats decapitation strikes, that’s no longer deterrence it’s provocation on a global stage. Netanyahu’s claim that “at the end of this, there will be no nuclear threat” is less a forecast and more a declaration that Israel won’t settle for containment. It wants annihilation. That’s a volatility catalyst wrapped in a war doctrine.
Meanwhile, Trump is boxed. Back-channel talks with Iran may still be fluttering behind the scenes, but the optics of indecision are bleeding into the market psyche. He’s got a MAGA base that’s split, some want restraint, others want fireworks. But Wall Street only hears one thing: binary headline risk, draped in missile trails and oil supply disruption.
Iran’s messaging hasn’t changed. It’s defiant, strategic, and calibrated to provoke a regional flash over. Tehran isn’t bluffing. Their Supreme Leader is leaning into the moment, calling U.S. support a “sign of weakness” and reminding his base that fear invites aggression. In the lexicon of market psychology, that’s called price discovery in reverse.
And oil? Still the wild card. The Strait of Hormuz is functioning, for now. But it’s a domino perched on the edge. One Israeli F-35 overreacts, one Iranian missile miscalculates, and we’re staring at a US$120 crude print before anyone can refresh their inflation models. That’s why gold keeps firming, why the dollar refuses to roll over, and why EUR/USD and USD/JPY rallies are capped by geopolitical gravity.
This isn’t about deal-making anymore. It’s about how long the illusion of diplomacy can coexist with the reality of war planning. The fact that Netanyahu is touring missile-hit hospitals while floating regime decapitation tells you all you need to know about the trajectory.
The market isn’t overshooting, it’s under-pricing. Because once you start talking bunker busters and “no more nuclear threat”, the downside scenario stops being hypothetical. It becomes base case.
Corporate news in Australia
-HomeCo Daily Needs REIT ((HDN)) portfolio is revalued by 3% as FY25 guidance is reaffirmed.
-Rio Tinto ((RIO)) has settles the Mongolian law suit for -US$138.7m.
-Digital infrastructure business Campana, which operates fibre and cables connecting Asian data centres to clients, is re-starting discussions for a possible listing.
-The Future Fund has removed Dexus ((DXS)) as manager of its Melbourne airport stake.
-Global IPO activity has hit a nine-year low in 2025 as US tariffs chill listings, but a tentative recovery may be brewing in Asia and late-year prospects.
-Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE)) has organised an investor update for Tuesday June 24.
On the calendar today:
-NZ Public Holiday
-JP May CPI
-CH LPR
-UK May retail sales
-US June Phil Feb bus outlook
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 3393.45 | – 13.75 | – 0.40% |
| Silver (oz) | 36.79 | – 0.39 | – 1.04% |
| Copper (lb) | 4.86 | + 0.07 | 1.48% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.15 | – 0.00 | – 0.10% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.71 | – 0.02 | – 0.23% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.20 | + 0.00 | 0.06% |
| West Texas Crude | 73.24 | – 0.40 | – 0.54% |
| Brent Crude | 76.08 | – 0.73 | – 0.95% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 94.71 | – 0.15 | – 0.16% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days
| Index | 19 Jun 2025 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Jun) | Quarter To Date (Apr-Jun) | Year To Date (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8523.70 | -0.28% | 1.06% | 8.67% | 4.47% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| ADT | Adriatic Metals | Upgrade to Hold from Trim | Morgans |
| CNI | Centuria Capital | Upgrade to Hold from Sell | Bell Potter |
| COF | Centuria Office REIT | Downgrade to Sell from Hold | Bell Potter |
| COH | Cochlear | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| EOS | Electro Optic Systems | Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Ord Minnett |
| HDN | HomeCo Daily Needs REIT | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| OML | oOh!media | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| PTM | Platinum Asset Management | Upgrade to Hold from Sell | Bell Potter |
| RRL | Regis Resources | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
| STO | Santos | Downgrade to Trim from Hold | Morgans |
| Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Ord Minnett | ||
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CBA - COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA
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