Next Week At A Glance -7-11 Jul 2025

This story features COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CBA

The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

For a more comprehensive preview of next week’s events, please refer to “The Monday Report”, published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

The week that was in Australian Finance

-The ASX200 advanced 1.4% in June for a total return of 13.8% for FY24. The June quarter printed an impressive total return of 9.5%, underpinning the highest financial year return since 2021 for the index. Investors will be looking to RBA rate cuts, a stronger economic backdrop, and signs of a better-than-expected earnings outlook at the upcoming August reporting season.

-The market is trading up over 1% for the week, with evidence of participants rotating out of the banks and top-performing stocks into materials, energy, and laggards to start FY26.

-Strap in for a potentially volatile trading week ahead. Kicking off is the RBA’s July rates decision on Tuesday, with the Australian interest rate market pricing in -22bp (86% chance) of a -25bp rate cut for July 8 and a cumulative -77bp of RBA rate cuts between now and the end of the year.

-This comes on the back of the latest disappointing retail sales data and May’s residential building approvals coming in lighter than expected. June’s new vehicle sales were a bright spot, reaching the highest June reading in over a decade.

-GemLife Communities Group ((GLF)), the largest IPO this year listed this week raising $750m at $4.16.

-Next week is also the deadline for President Trump’s tariff pause on July 9. ANZ Bank expects a baseline 10% tariff and higher sectoral tariffs in areas of strategic importance to the US. Some extensions for countries involved in tariff negotiations are also anticipated, while other countries might be subjected to reciprocal tariffs.

-With markets having moved to risk-on sentiment as tariff concerns faded, record index highs for the S&P500 and Nasdaq may fall foul if expectations are not met, or if President Trump adopts a more Liberation Day style of negotiations.

-The latter seems unlikely, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent flagging major trade deals will be concluded by September 1, Labour Day Holiday.

-An interesting thought to ponder, as highlighted by Hasan Tevfik, the strategist for MST Marquee, was that the ASX200 would decline by -5% if CommBank’s ((CBA)) valuation returned to its historical average of 16 times, compared to the current price-to-earnings multiple of 28 times FY26 earnings, according to FNArena’s data derived from daily monitored brokers.

The team at FNArena wishes everyone a great weekend!

Corporate news in the week that was:

-ASIC is looking into voter error on the rejected PointsBet ((PBH)) takeover.

-Alinta is looking at a merger with Energy Australia, a $10bn deal.

-Sale of Healthscope has been delayed until July-September

-Nine Entertainment’s ((NEC)) Stan has acquired Optus Sports assets and APL rights for -$20m

-Mineral Resources ((MIN)) sells Yilgarn Iron project

-DroneShield ((DRO)) has increased its pipeline to $2.41bn with a $9.7m Latin American deal

-Azek shareholders approve James Hardie Industries ((JHX)) takeover

-Private equity is looking at Kelsian Group’s ((KLS)) $200m of tourism assets

-Hong Kong investors are threatening to walk away from Star Entertainment Group’s ((SGR)) deal for the Queen St Wharf casino and hotel complex

-HMC Capital ((HMC)) has reversed on its $2bn renewable energy strategy, delayed a major acquisition and replaced its energy transition chief.

-Downer EDI ((DOW)) has sold its Keoilis JV stake for $132m and won a $200m Ausnet contract.

-The Reject Shop ((TRS)) is delisting after the Dollarama takeover for $253m is approved.

-James Hardie Industries ((JHX)) has finalised the Azek acquisition including the addition to the board.

-Speculation is rising of a possible takeover of Domino’s Pizza Enterprises ((DMP)) by the US parent or another global franchise as Chairman Jack Cowin takes control.

-Westpac ((WBC)) is considering the sale of KiwiSaver for $9.3bn as part of asset rationalisation.

-Qantas Airways ((QAN)) announced up to 6m customer details were exposed to a cyber attack.

-Helia Group ((HLI) is reviewing its business strategy after losing ING as client.

-Dexus ((DXS)) sues AMP ((AMP)) over the forced sale of Macquarie Centre for $830m.

-AGL Energy ((AGL)) acquired Tesla’s battery network in SA.

-HSBC is nearing the end of the sale of its retail banking business in Australia, attracting interest from the major banks.

-Regal Partners ((RPL)) experiences a -40% decline in performance fees due to investment losses.

-REA Group ((REA)) has flagged a reported -15% cut in its tech team as the workforce is rationalised.

Next week’s Corporate Calendar

For a calendar of earnings result releases and a summary of earnings results to date, refer to FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor (https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/)

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