Weekly Reports | Aug 01 2025
A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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BAPCOR LIMITED ((BAP)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Bapcor provided a disappointing trading update with FY25 net profit forecast of $81-82m well below Canaccord Genuity's $97.7m forecast and $96.4m consensus.
The company also flagged -$45m mainly non-cash write-downs which is in addition to -$4.7m in 1H25. The broker believes the company's turnaround story will likely be heavily weighted to the back end of the five-year timeframe.
Another concerning news was resignation of three board member, but the broker believes some of it is mitigated by the change in structure, though more clarity is required. The company can become a target again but a formal offer is seen as less likely.
FY25 EPS forecast cut by -16.3% and FY26 by -21.3%. Target trimmed to $4.15 from $4.99. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.
CORE LITHIUM LIMITED ((CXO)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity has revised its outlook for the lithium sector from a conservative to a more positive outlook.
The broker believes demand is much stronger than previously expected, and for the first time since 2022, it expects demand growth to exceed supply growth.
SC6 price forecast lifted by 6% for 2025, 5% for 2026 and 22% for 2027.
In the case of developer/explorer coverage, the broker's target price reduced by an average -5% due to project/financing delays and dilution from capital raising.
Core Lithium's rating upgraded to Speculative Buy from Hold. Target rises to 15c from 10c.
ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED ((ILU)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Iluka Resources' June quarter production for zircon, rutile and synthetic rutile beat both Canaccord Genuity and the consensus forecasts significantly due to better-than-expected zircon sand volumes.
Sales were a small beat vs the broker's estimate as higher zircon sales offset lower synthetic rutile sales on shipping timing, but missed consensus. Average realised prices were n line with guidance for zircon but rutile was lower -3% q/q.
Net debt was lower than expected due to lower capex spend, but the broker expects this to be made up in 2H25. The broker believes the company is on track to achieve previously flagged FY25 guidance but notes market outlook for its products remains subdued.
Target rises to $5.85 from $4.40 after factoring in June quarter results and de-risking Eneabba project valuation. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.
MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED ((MYX)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity has had another look at forecasts for Mayne Pharma following an end to the Bloomberg script data hiatus and after considering management guidance.
The outcome is a -14% cut to FY25 dermatology revenue forecast and a -25% cut to FY26. Total revenue forecasts for FY25-26 was lowered by -7% and -10%, respectively.
The main question is what happens to the share price if the Cosette transaction falls over and the company's readiness to accept any lower offer. The broker reckons the share price will trade very weak if the deal doesn't proceed.
Target cut to $6.10 from $7.40. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.
OFX GROUP LIMITED ((OFX)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
OFX Group's 1Q26 net operating incomes was up 11% q/q, and pointed to $220m annualised vs Canaccord Genuity's forecast of $216m.
The broker assesses the update as incrementally positive based on the outlook for the global new client platform NCP which showed migrated clients increased their FX activity by over 10% in June.
The broker left net operating income forecasts unchanged but lifted FY26 EBITDA forecast by 5% on confidence around unit economics from the NCP rollout.
Target rises to $1.10 from $1.00. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.
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