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In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 01-08-25

Weekly Reports | Aug 01 2025

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This story features BAPCOR LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BAP

The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

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BAPCOR LIMITED ((BAP)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Bapcor provided a disappointing trading update with FY25 net profit forecast of $81-82m well below Canaccord Genuity’s $97.7m forecast and $96.4m consensus.

The company also flagged -$45m mainly non-cash write-downs which is in addition to -$4.7m in 1H25. The broker believes the company’s turnaround story will likely be heavily weighted to the back end of the five-year timeframe.

Another concerning news was resignation of three board member, but the broker believes some of it is mitigated by the change in structure, though more clarity is required. The company can become a target again but a formal offer is seen as less likely.

FY25 EPS forecast cut by -16.3% and FY26 by -21.3%. Target trimmed to $4.15 from $4.99. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

CORE LITHIUM LIMITED ((CXO)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity has revised its outlook for the lithium sector from a conservative to a more positive outlook.

The broker believes demand is much stronger than previously expected, and for the first time since 2022, it expects demand growth to exceed supply growth.

SC6 price forecast lifted by 6% for 2025, 5% for 2026 and 22% for 2027. 

In the case of developer/explorer coverage, the broker’s target price reduced by an average -5% due to project/financing delays and dilution from capital raising.

Core Lithium’s rating upgraded to Speculative Buy from Hold. Target rises to 15c from 10c.

ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED ((ILU)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Iluka Resources’ June quarter production for zircon, rutile and synthetic rutile beat both Canaccord Genuity and the consensus forecasts significantly due to better-than-expected zircon sand volumes.

Sales were a small beat vs the broker’s estimate as higher zircon sales offset lower synthetic rutile sales on shipping timing, but missed consensus. Average realised prices were n line with guidance for zircon but rutile was lower -3% q/q.

Net debt was lower than expected due to lower capex spend, but the broker expects this to be made up in 2H25. The broker believes the company is on track to achieve previously flagged FY25 guidance but notes market outlook for its products remains subdued.

Target rises to $5.85 from $4.40 after factoring in June quarter results and de-risking Eneabba project valuation. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED ((MYX)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity has had another look at forecasts for Mayne Pharma following an end to the Bloomberg script data hiatus and after considering management guidance.

The outcome is a -14% cut to FY25 dermatology revenue forecast and a -25% cut to FY26. Total revenue forecasts for FY25-26 was lowered by -7% and -10%, respectively.

The main question is what happens to the share price if the Cosette transaction falls over and the company’s readiness to accept any lower offer. The broker reckons the share price will trade very weak if the deal doesn’t proceed.

Target cut to $6.10 from $7.40. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

OFX GROUP LIMITED ((OFX)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

OFX Group’s 1Q26 net operating incomes was up 11% q/q, and pointed to $220m annualised vs Canaccord Genuity’s forecast of $216m.

The broker assesses the update as incrementally positive based on the outlook for the global new client platform NCP which showed migrated clients increased their FX activity by over 10% in June.

The broker left net operating income forecasts unchanged but lifted FY26 EBITDA forecast by 5% on confidence around unit economics from the NCP rollout.

Target rises to $1.10 from $1.00. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

Downgrade

BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED ((BSL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden downgrades BlueScope Steel to Neutral from Overweight due to the share price outperformance and risk to FY26 earnings.

The analyst anticipates BlueScope will achieve slightly better 2H25 earnings before interest and tax, with US spreads at US$405/t against guidance of US$340/t, but upside risks could be constrained by economic uncertainty affecting demand and tariff impacts.

The company retains a strong balance sheet with estimated net cash of $56m and net debt targets of $400m–$800m.

Target price slips to $25 from $25.30.

LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity notes Lynas Rare Earths’ June quarter production beat its forecast and average pricing for REO sales was 13% higher than its forecast and up 20% q/q. 

Cash cost, however, was higher than expected due to spillover from March and as Kalgoorlie is no longer capitalised, resulting in lower-than-expected closing cash balance.

The broker is more focused on FY26 where it expects significantly higher volumes and pricing. Target lifted to $9.65 from $8.80. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy on valuation.

SUPPLY NETWORK LIMITED ((SNL)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Supply Network reported preliminary FY25 results, which came in slightly below Moelis’ and consensus forecasts.

Revenue grew around 15% on the previous year, which is below the compound average rate of circa 23% between FY22–FY24, but marginally above the long-term average of around 14% per annum.

Net profit after tax rose 20% to $39.7m, with a 2H25 dividend of 38c per share, for a total 70c dividend.

Management guided to FY26 revenue of $50m, representing 14.4% growth on FY25. Moelis doesn’t believe there were any changes to the company’s competitive position.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy on valuation grounds. Target price set at $40.10.

LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED ((TLC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden downgrades Lottery Corp to Neutral from Overweight, with a lower target price of $5.30 from $5.35, due to the stock’s recent outperformance.

The company has appointed a new CEO, Wayne Pickup, who will replace Ms van der Merwe. He brings significant experience in the industry, having served as CEO of Allwyn’s North America business and CEO of Lotto NZ, the analyst details.

Lottery Corp is due to report FY25 earnings on August 20, with aggregate jackpot levels having improved from the soft, below-trend period in 1H25.

Jarden believes consensus earnings downgrades have mitigated much of the risk to the FY25 earnings announcement.

Order Company New Rating Old Rating Broker
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1 BAPCOR LIMITED Buy Neutral Canaccord Genuity
2 CORE LITHIUM LIMITED Buy Neutral Canaccord Genuity
3 ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED Buy Neutral Canaccord Genuity
4 MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED Buy Neutral Canaccord Genuity
5 OFX GROUP LIMITED Buy Neutral Canaccord Genuity
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6 BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED Neutral Buy Jarden
7 LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED Neutral Buy Jarden
8 LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED Neutral Buy Canaccord Genuity
9 SUPPLY NETWORK LIMITED Neutral Buy Moelis

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Company Last Price Broker New Target Old Target Change
ADT Adriatic Metals $5.69 Canaccord Genuity 6.00 5.50 9.09%
BAP Bapcor $3.86 Canaccord Genuity 4.15 4.99 -16.83%
BCI BCI Minerals $0.35 Canaccord Genuity 0.50 0.49 2.04%
BOE Boss Energy $1.74 Canaccord Genuity 3.50 5.15 -32.04%
Canaccord Genuity 5.30 5.15 2.91%
BSL BlueScope Steel $23.77 Jarden 25.00 25.30 -1.19%
CU6 Clarity Pharmaceuticals $4.37 Wilsons 8.50 8.25 3.03%
CXO Core Lithium $0.10 Canaccord Genuity 0.15 0.10 50.00%
CYL Catalyst Metals $5.10 Canaccord Genuity 7.90 7.85 0.64%
DYL Deep Yellow $1.51 Canaccord Genuity 1.98 1.61 22.98%
FMG Fortescue $17.77 Jarden 16.25 16.91 -3.90%
GDG Generation Development $6.06 Moelis 6.26 5.81 7.75%
GGP Greatland Resources $5.30 Jarden 5.70 6.20 -8.06%
GLN Galan Lithium $0.14 Canaccord Genuity 0.20 0.18 11.11%
Petra Capital 0.42 0.36 16.67%
GT1 Green Technology Metals $0.03 Canaccord Genuity 0.18 0.20 -10.00%
HLO Helloworld Travel $1.68 Jarden 2.80 2.61 7.28%
IGO IGO Ltd $4.43 Canaccord Genuity 4.80 3.60 33.33%
ILU Iluka Resources $5.15 Canaccord Genuity 5.85 4.40 32.95%
IMB Intelligent Monitoring $0.64 Moelis 0.92 0.91 1.10%
IMD Imdex $3.04 Canaccord Genuity 3.18 3.04 4.61%
KAR Karoon Energy $1.87 Jarden 2.15 2.10 2.38%
Wilsons 2.14 2.04 4.90%
LTR Liontown Resources $0.78 Canaccord Genuity 0.95 0.50 90.00%
LYC Lynas Rare Earths $10.47 Canaccord Genuity 9.65 8.80 9.66%
MYX Mayne Pharma $4.95 Canaccord Genuity 6.10 7.40 -17.57%
NST Northern Star Resources $15.57 Canaccord Genuity 24.10 26.80 -10.07%
Jarden 15.10 19.40 -22.16%
OBM Ora Banda Mining $0.65 Canaccord Genuity 1.05 1.20 -12.50%
Moelis 0.85 0.92 -7.61%
OFX OFX Group $0.83 Canaccord Genuity 1.10 1.00 10.00%
PDN Paladin Energy $6.21 Canaccord Genuity 12.60 12.80 -1.56%
PLL Piedmont Lithium $0.12 Canaccord Genuity N/A 0.35 -100.00%
PLT Plenti Group $1.10 Wilsons 1.44 1.32 9.09%
PMT Patriot Battery Metals $0.43 Canaccord Genuity 0.65 0.55 18.18%
PRU Perseus Mining $3.27 Canaccord Genuity 5.80 5.25 10.48%
REG Regis Healthcare $8.37 Jarden 8.05 7.74 4.01%
S32 South32 $2.94 Canaccord Genuity 2.70 2.60 3.85%
SFR Sandfire Resources $10.64 Canaccord Genuity 12.00 10.75 11.63%
SNL Supply Network $37.27 Moelis 40.10 39.10 2.56%
SYA Sayona Mining $0.02 Canaccord Genuity N/A 0.05 -100.00%
TLC Lottery Corp $5.42 Jarden 5.30 5.35 -0.93%
VAU Vault Minerals $0.37 Canaccord Genuity 0.75 0.68 10.29%
Jarden 0.50 0.59 -15.25%
Jarden 0.55 0.59 -6.78%
Moelis 0.73 0.75 -2.67%
VUL Vulcan Energy Resources $3.64 Canaccord Genuity 9.75 10.00 -2.50%
WDS Woodside Energy $26.59 Jarden 25.75 25.05 2.79%
WR1 Winsome Resources $0.16 Canaccord Genuity 0.75 1.20 -37.50%
Company Last Price Broker New Target Old Target Change

More Highlights

ALK    ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.76

Moelis rates ((ALK)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis Australia has reiterated a Buy rating and $1.15 price target on Alkane Resources after a solid Q4 and ahead of its merger with Mandalay Resources Corp.

June quarter production was 19.2koz (vs 19.4koz est), with sales at 18.5koz and AISC of $2,302/oz, aided by a $7.1m inventory credit. Full-year output reached 70.1koz, in line with forecasts.

Commentary notes merger finalisation is on track, with shareholder approval secured and only British Columbia court sign-off pending (due August 5). Moelis sees the combined group producing circa 170koz in FY26.

No changes to forecasts or valuation; the $1.15 target is maintained. Moelis views the merged entity as strategically positioned amid index pressure on peers, with capital flexibility, scale and near-term catalysts supporting a re-rating.

This report was published on July 31, 2025.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.39
If ALK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.33.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.67.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GLF    GEMLIFE COMMUNITIES GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.20

Wilsons rates ((GLF)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) –

Wilsons has initiated coverage of Gemlife Communities with an Overweight rating and target price of $4.94.

The broker believes the company is well positioned to benefit from a favourable demand backdrop and generates attractive and stable home build margins.

Importantly, it is well-capitalised and under base case, gearing is expected to reach 29% by FY27 — the midpoint of management 25-35% target.

The broker’s FY25 and 1H26 forecasts are in line with the IPO prospectus with 21% EPS growth estimated in FY26 and 14% in FY27.

Key risks to the share price include delays or shortfalls in home settlement volumes and any covenant pressure on the balance sheet.

This report was published on July 25, 2025.

Target price is $4.94 Current Price is $4.20 Difference: $0.74
If GLF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.10 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.58.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.60 cents and EPS of 27.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.33.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GTK    GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $9.97

Wilsons rates ((GTK)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons acknowledges the likely loss of a major customer, believed to be Red Energy, as a setback for Gentrack Group. The loss is attributed to aggressive competition from Kraken, which has been actively pursuing high-profile wins.

While competitive intensity has increased, particularly in developed markets, the broker believes Gentrack’s international strategy remains intact. New contract wins are expected in Continental Europe and Southeast Asia.

The analysts highlight upside from the UK B2C water market, and sees recent investor reaction as overly driven by recency bias, overlooking recent renewals and the Utility Warehouse win.

Despite removing -$6m in revenue and around -$4m in earnings (EBITDA) from FY27 forecasts, Wilsons maintains Gentrack’s growth outlook is supported by its differentiated regional focus and continued pipeline.

Wilsons retains an Overweight rating and lowers its price target to $11.21 from $11.82.

This report was published on July 28, 2025.

Target price is $11.82 Current Price is $9.97 Difference: $1.85
If GTK meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.83, suggesting upside of 28.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 81.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 75.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of 54.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.9.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR    KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.90

Jarden rates ((KAR)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden reckons Karoon Energy is following a strategy of underpromising and overdelivering by leaving FY25 guidance unchanged despite strong performance in Brazil.

June quarter group production of 2.94mmboe was 1% ahead of the broker’s forecast and 2% higher than the consensus. Revenue missed expectations but it was a timing issue,

The broker forecasts FY25 production of 8.2mmbbl vs guidance of 6.7-7.7mmbbl, and notes the company is progressing quickly to develop its discoveries, with Who Dat East expected to reach FID in late 2025/early 2026.

Target price lifted to $2.15 from $2.10 on bullish outlook on growth projects. Overweight retained.

This report was published on July 24, 2025.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.25
If KAR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 12.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.89 cents and EPS of 30.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.80 cents and EPS of 26.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of 15.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TNE    TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $40.30

Jarden rates ((TNE)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (2) –

Jarden initiates coverage on TechnologyOne with an Overweight rating and $44.82 price target. Despite an elevated valuation, the analysts believe it is justified by the company’s quality, robust forecast earnings, and additional upside potential.

The broker believes the company is one of the highest-quality names in its technology coverage, citing best-in-class Rule of 40 metrics, consistent net revenue retention and pricing power. A defensible customer base reliant on mission-critical software is also noted.

The broker expects $1bn in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by FY29, one year ahead of guidance, with profit forecasts for FY25–27 sitting 2–5% above consensus forecasts.

Jarden sees medium-term earnings (EBITDA) upside potential if management launches new or augmented AI products, successfully executes its SaaS-Plus strategy, and sustains UK momentum.

The SaaS-Plus initiative is viewed by the analysts as transformational, helping to de-risk implementation, reduce pipeline congestion, and drive operational leverage.

This report was published on July 29, 2025.

Target price is $44.82 Current Price is $40.30 Difference: $4.52
If TNE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.58, suggesting downside of -9.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 43.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 93.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.2, implying annual growth of 16.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 97.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 52.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 76.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.0, implying annual growth of 18.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 82.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VYS    VYSARN LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.51

Wilsons rates ((VYS)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons continues to view sustainable water management as an “attractive” thematic, with Vysarn a leading supplier of water services against a backdrop of growing demand for solutions.

The company reported a FY25 trading update with profit before tax of $15m, compared to the analyst’s forecast of $14.8m, and revenue higher than estimated at $108.5m versus Wilsons’ $97.9m forecast.

Industrial activity was reported as robust, with a strong technology order book, Vysarn detailed, and the advisory division receiving its first scope of works with Sydney Water. FY26 profit before tax guidance was announced at $19.6m.

Overweight rating retained.

This report was published on July 28, 2025.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.14
If VYS meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.18.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.21.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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CHARTS

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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MYX - MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED

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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TLC - LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED

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