The Overnight Report: Pause After The High

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After a positive night for US and European markets generally, President Trump and Tim Cook's Apple announced at a joint press conference a further US$100bn of investment in the US.

Another record high was registered downunder yesterday. ASX futures point to the local market taking a breather on Thursday.

Good Morning,

No room for doom and gloom in the Australian market with the ASX200 hitting another fresh record on Wednesday, above 8,400 for the first time – ever.

The index rose 73pts or 0.8% to 8.844. Energy and mining stocks led the rally with utilities the only sector to underwhelm.

What happened overnight, NAB Markets Research Today extract

Bloomberg reported after the end of a successful meeting by a US envoy with Russia in Moscow, Trump, Putin and Zelenskiy will meet next week; news that may have been responsible for a brief spike in 10-year treasury yields.

Bloomberg also reported overnight a temporary Fed governor could be nominated, to fill the vacant position to see out Adriana Kugler’s term, which expires next January. This would provide more time to interview candidates for the next Fed Chair, after Powell’s term expires in May of next year.

NAB’s understanding is President Trump could make a ‘recess appointment’ – so not requiring immediate Senate ratification – and so have someone in place for the Sep 16-17 FOMC meeting. The Senate is currently out until September 2.

We are awaiting an announcement here from President Trump on this. Yesterday the White House said it would come out at 4:30pm. It’s currently 5:30pm in Washington. It may be that the announcement instead references a potential meeting with President Putin (the New York Times reported a couple of hours ago that Trump plans to meet with Putin as early as next week).

Meanwhile Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaking at a Boston Fed conference said the July jobs report was “concerning” and these revisions can indicate a turning point. Minneapolis Fed President Neal Kashkari (a current FOMC non-voter) said the US labour market is cooling and reversing course on rates may be better than waiting. He said his forecast for two rate cuts this year was reasonable.

The US Treasury’s US$42bn 10-yr note sale was awarded at 4.255% vs the 4.244% when-issued (pre-auction) yield and so securing a 4.25% coupon versus the 4.125% rate indicated by the WI yield. The bid-cover ratio of 2.35 compared to a 2.51 average for the prior six auctions.

European 10-year bond yields in contrast are lower, -2-3bps for Eurozone benchmarks and gilts by -1bps in front of the Bank of England rates decision later today.  US 2-year yields fell -2bps on the day, in conjunction with stepped up market-implied confidence in a Sep 17 Fed rate cut and where Fed Funds futures now pricing a 95% probability to a -25bps, up from 90% on Tuesday.

US stocks have closed with the S&P500 up 0.7% and the NASDAQ up 1.2%, with consumer discretionary up 2.5%, IT rising 1.3% and Consumer Staples up 1.7%, leading the move higher. Most of the gains came during the morning session before stocks meandered through the afternoon. Apple has led the markets, up 5% with news that it will shift some production to the US looking responsible (recall Trump was threatening heavy import tariffs if it failed to do so). European stocks were for the most part also higher.

Commodities were mixed with metals stronger but oil lower again, WTI and Brent -1.9% and -1.6% respectively.

India has reacted strongly to the imposition of the extra 25% tariff on its exports, defending its policy. Seems there is no prospect of an immediately curtailment of Russian supply to one of its two main buyers, after China.

As for higher metals prices, we note that yesterday China reportedly committed to building, or refurbishing, 300,000 kilometres of roads connecting rural and urban areas. Responsible or not we couldn’t say.

Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research extract

It’s a light day for economic news. Stock prices are drifting higher today because the Q2 earnings reporting season is going well, with very few exceptions.

Notwithstanding the weakness of the latest employment report and the two surveys of purchasing managers, in manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries, stock investors are still betting on the resilience of the economy since it is continuing to deliver solid earnings. We are betting the same way.

Boosting our confidence in the resilience of the economy are the weekly data series that the Fed compiles on the commercial banking industry’s balance sheet. Loans are at record highs. In addition, the strength of the S&P500 Financials stock price index since the start of the current bull market has been comforting, mainly because we’ve been recommending overweighting the sector. Financials can be a canary in the coal mine. They tend to chirp when the economy is doing well and croak when it isn’t.

Bank loans rose to a record high of US$13.0 trillion during the week of July 23 . They rose to record highs for both large and small banks. We recognize that bank loans tend to be a lagging indicator. They typically drop when the tightening of monetary policy triggers a banking crisis that causes a credit crunch that results in a recession. That’s been a widespread concern since the Fed started tightening monetary policy in early 2022. We haven’t shared that concern.

Commercial and industrial loan demand was relatively flat from 2022 through 2024. That’s mainly because inventories were relatively flat. So far this year, C&I loans have been increasing, especially at the large banks.

Despite lots of concerns about the financial well-being of many consumers, bank loans to consumers are at a record high.

There is a crisis in the old office buildings sector of commercial real estate. But it’s not weighing much on commercial real estate loans at the banks, which have been rising slowly over the past couple of years in record-high territory. Leading the ascent are small banks. The big ones are letting their holdings of these loans run off their books.

Bank loans secured by multi-family properties continue to rise in record-high territory, led by lending by small banks.

The Fed’s latest SLOOS (Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey) survey showed banks have eased their lending standards significantly compared to two years ago.

Corporate news in Australia

-Cameron Murphy, retiring MD and CEO of CAR Group ((CAR)) is reported as being the top candidate for the CEO position at REA Group ((REA))

-Iluka Resources ((ILU)) has signed a 15-year rare earths deal with Lindian Resources ((LIN)) and will provide a US$20m construction term loan for the Malawi mine to feed its WA refinery.

-TPG (private equity) intends to acquire Infomedia ((IFM)) for $651m.

-Canadia Agnico Eagle has been mooted as considering the acquisition of Northern Star Resources ((NST)) for $25bn.

-ASIC is approaching the last stages of approval for Cboe Australia to list stocks, challenging the ASX ((ASX)) monopoly.

-Toys ‘R’ Us ANZ ((TOY)) is delisting from the ASX after a failed recapitalisation.

On the calendar today:

-NZ 3Q Inflation expectations

-AU June Trade Bal

-CH July Trade Bal

-UK BoE decision

-US June Consumer Credit

-AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) earnings report

-AVITA MEDICAL INC ((AVH)) earnings report

-BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED ((BMN)) earnings report

-LIGHT & WONDER INC ((LNW)) earnings report

-QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED ((QBE)) earnings report

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

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