Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 21, 2025

This story features AMPLITUDE ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AEL (2)   ARB   CGF   CSL (2)   DRR   DVP   HMC   HUB (2)   JDO   MND   PSQ   RGN   RWC   SGM   SRG   WDS  

AEL    AMPLITUDE ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.25

Jarden rates ((AEL)) as Buy (1) –

Amplitude Energy’s FY25 result showed continued operational improvement at Orbost and disciplined cost control, suggests Jarden, with underlying earnings (EBITDAX) of $172m, up 36% year-on-year.

Earnings were 1% ahead of the broker’s forecast but -1% below consensus, while profit of $11.4m beat the broker but missed consensus.

Production rose 17% and sales revenue increased 22%, though operating cash flow of $89m was below both Jarden and consensus due to higher restoration costs.

FY26 production guidance of 69-74TJe/d is -3-4% below prior estimates, but the broker recalls FY25 guidance was also conservative and ultimately exceeded.

FY26 capex guidance of -$125-150m is lower than the analyst’s $-195m estimate due to East Coast Supply Project spend shifting into later years.

Jarden expects market focus to remain on East Coast Supply Project progress, approvals to lift Orbost throughput, and exploration wells at Elanora and Isabella from December 2025.

The broker’s 29c target and Buy rating are retained.

This report was published on August 19, 2025.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.04
If AEL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.30, suggesting upside of 20.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of -8.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((AEL)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons notes Amplitude Energy’s FY25 result was broadly in line with consensus, with production up 17% year-on-year to 26.6PJe. Revenue also rose 22% to $268.1m, and underlying earnings (EBITDAX) increased by 36% to $173.9m at a 65% margin.

Operating cash flow (OCF) rose 40% to $160.5m, supported by efficiency initiatives, explains the broker, which delivered around $20m in savings, largely from Orbost absorber cleaning improvements and gas trading gains.

FY26 guidance is for production of  69-74TJe/d, production expenses of -$54-60m and capex of -$125-150m.

While guidance appears conservative to Wilsons, debottlenecking at Orbost could lift throughput above the 68TJe/d nameplate, potentially adding 4-6TJe/d subject to approvals.

The analyst believes the East Coast Supply Project remains the key growth driver though carries execution and timing risks.

Wilsons maintains a Market Weight rating and 25c target price.

This report was published on August 20, 2025.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0
If AEL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.30, suggesting upside of 20.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of -8.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARB    ARB CORPORATION LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $39.86

Wilsons rates ((ARB)) as Overweight (1) –

ARB Corp’s FY25 profit of $96m was down -7% year-on-year and around -3% below Wilsons’ forecast, driven by weaker second-half margins and slightly softer sales.

A final dividend of 35c was declared, alongside a surprise 50c special dividend, which reflects balance sheet strength, suggests the broker.

Wilsons notes margin pressure stemmed from FX headwinds as the Thai Baht strengthened against the Australian dollar, though sequential improvement is expected in FY26 as price increases take effect.

Momentum in the Americas continues to build with ORW/4WP performing well, highlight the analysts, while Australian new vehicle sales are accelerating and expected to provide a tailwind for Aftermarket demand.

The broker cuts its FY26 profit forecast by -5.5% on lower sales and weaker margins but leaves FY27 unchanged.

Wilsons raises its target price to $44.92 from $40.83 and maintains an Overweight rating.

This report was published on August 20, 2025.

Target price is $44.92 Current Price is $39.86 Difference: $5.06
If ARB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $43.36, suggesting upside of 8.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 128.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 124.8, implying annual growth of 6.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.9.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 85.00 cents and EPS of 153.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.8, implying annual growth of 14.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF    CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $8.53

Jarden rates ((CGF)) as Overweight (2) –

Challenger’s FY25 profit of $455.5m was broadly in line with forecasts by Jarden and consensus, with Life earnings offsetting softer funds management. Life sales rose strongly in the fourth quarter, particularly from Australian institutions, while Japanese sales fell.

The cost-to-income ratio declined to 32.3%, at the low end of guidance, and return on equity (ROE) was above target for a second consecutive half, highlight the analysts.

FY26 guidance is for profit of $455-495m and EPS of 66-72c, implying around 4% growth at the midpoint. Jarden believes Life will drive growth, supported by lower maturities and stronger sales, while fee pressure continues to weigh on funds management.

Jarden cuts its EPS forecasts by -1.6% for FY25 and -4.4% for FY26, with capital changes from APRA remaining the key near-term catalyst. The broker sees potential for more than $1bn in capital returns and a stronger ROE profile.

The target price falls to $8.60 from $8.70. Overweight rating maintained.

This report was published on August 19, 2025.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $8.53 Difference: $0.07
If CGF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.77, suggesting upside of 2.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 27.60 cents and EPS of 63.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.8, implying annual growth of 131.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 29.10 cents and EPS of 67.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.4, implying annual growth of 10.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $220.74

Jarden rates ((CSL)) as Overweight (2) –

Following FY25 results by CSL, Jarden cuts its profit (NPATA) forecasts by -1% for FY26, -3.7% for FY27 and -6.7% for FY28, reducing its target price to $298.13 from $313.50.

An Overweight rating is maintained, with the analysts viewing the share price fall post results as an overreaction.

Management reported FY25 profit at the top end of guidance and issued FY26 profit guidance of US$3.45-3.55bn, broadly in line with consensus.

Jarden notes this guidance masks weakness in the Behring business, with tender losses in the UK and Mexico weighing on immunoglobulin (IG) growth, and the group abandoning its gross margin recovery timeline.

The broker highlights IG revenue growth slowed to 7% in FY25, with second-half growth turning negative, impacted by Medicare Part D and lost tenders.

While CSL avoided low-margin contracts, the analysts see near-term growth reduced by -300-400bps, though expects Hizentra (a subcutaneous immunoglobulin treatment) to grow double digits and IG overall at mid-to high-single digits.

Management announced a -US$500-550m cost-out program, though part of this will be reinvested, and flagged an $750m buyback.

This report was published on August 20, 2025.

Target price is $298.13 Current Price is $220.74 Difference: $77.39
If CSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $282.68, suggesting upside of 28.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 364.50 cents and EPS of 842.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1077.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 503.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 505.96 cents and EPS of 1125.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1256.9, implying annual growth of 16.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 558.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((CSL)) as Market Weight (3) –

CSL’s FY25 result disappointed with revenue of US$11.2bn from Behring missing Wilsons’ forecasts by -4%, while Seqirus and Vifor both delivered better-than-expected contributions.

Group profit of US$3.2bn was in line, supported by a lower tax rate, explains the broker, and operating cash flow rose 29% to US$3.6bn.

A final dividend of US$1.62 was declared, while net debt fell to US$9.3bn, or 1.8 times earnings (EBITDA).

The broker highlights the abandonment of Behring margin recovery timelines, limited gross margin improvement, and poorly explained reinvestment plans from the US$500m cost-out program as key negatives.

CSL will demerge Seqirus by end-FY26 and announced a US$500m buyback, but structural challenges remain across the portfolio, caution the analysts.

Guidance for FY26 is NPATA of US$3.45-3.55bn, implying 7-10% growth at constant FX. The broker’s earnings forecasts are cut by -1% for FY26 and -5% for FY27.

The broker reduces its target price to $227.50 from $250.00 and retains a Market Weight rating.

This report was published on August 20, 2025.

Target price is $227.50 Current Price is $220.74 Difference: $6.76
If CSL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $282.68, suggesting upside of 28.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 472.06 cents and EPS of 1080.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1077.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 503.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 505.80 cents and EPS of 1170.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1256.9, implying annual growth of 16.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 558.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR    DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $4.23

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DRR)) as Buy (1) –

Deterra Royalties delivered FY25 underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $250m, above Canaccord Genuity’s $220m estimate and consensus at $236m.

These ‘beats’ were driven by record South Flank volumes and a $20m capacity payment on the MAC royalty, explains the broker.

Statutory earnings were $238m after Trident (lithium) financing costs, while underlying profit of $160m was ahead of Canaccord’s $145m forecast and broadly in line with consensus.

A final dividend of 13c takes full year dividends to 22c, with the payout ratio lifted to 75% from 50%.

Net debt of $271m equates to gearing of 10%, within management’s 0-15% target. The broker expects further de-levering supported by possible asset sales such as the gold offtake.

On updated lithium price forecasts, Canaccord estimates royalties of around $20m annually from FY28 for Trident, growing to circa $55m by FY32, representing 30% of group revenues.

Canaccord raises its target price to $5.00 from $4.90 and maintains a Buy rating.

This report was published on August 20, 2025.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.23 Difference: $0.77
If DRR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.08, suggesting downside of -3.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.6, implying annual growth of 0.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of -25.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DVP    DEVELOP GLOBAL LIMITED

Industrial Metals – Overnight Price: $3.80

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DVP)) as Downgrade to Hold from Speculative Buy (3) –

Develop Global has strengthened its balance sheet with a well-timed (according to Canaccord Genuity) $180m equity raise at $4.50 per share following a 118% share price rally over six months.

The funds will support an aggressive growth strategy, including -$80m for Sulphur Springs pre-production capex, -$25m for Woodlawn growth, -$25m for extending mine lives under Project DM15, and -$40m for growth opportunities.

At Woodlawn, commissioning and ramp-up are progressing to plan, highlight the analysts, with nameplate 850ktpa capacity achieved in stress testing. Ramp-up to 800ktpa is on track for the December quarter.

First concentrate shipments were delivered to commodity trading and logistics company Trafigura, with revenue expected this quarter.

Canaccord lowers its target to $4.40 from $4.95 and downgrades to Hold from Speculative Buy after factoring into forecasts the June quarterly activities report and capital raise.

This report was published on August 19, 2025.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.6
If DVP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.23.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HMC    HMC CAPITAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $3.85

Jarden rates ((HMC)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden believes HMC Capital’s FY25 result showed recurring fee and investment income progressing well, but the earnings and valuation outlook remains tied to raising unlisted capital.

Assets under management (AUM) have stagnated, caution the analysts. HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW)) and Digico Infrastructure REIT ((DGT)) returns are under review and the energy transition fund still seeking commitments.

The broker sees the negative current share price reaction so far this year as binary: successful fundraising would drive a sharp recovery, but without it, gearing constraints and earnings downgrades may persist.

Management’s $50bn AUM target remains but the broker’s medium-term growth expectations are cut to $5.5bn over three years and $12.5bn over five, reflecting difficult equity market conditions.

Fundraising for the energy fund is critical, assess the analysts, and while a Neoen sell-down is still assumed by FY26, lack of progress would weigh on both earnings and balance sheet flexibility.

Jarden reduces its target price to $5.20 from $6.85 and maintains an Overweight rating.

This report was published on August 19, 2025.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $1.35
If HMC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.07, suggesting upside of 57.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 26.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.5, implying annual growth of -6.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 28.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.9, implying annual growth of -13.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $104.84

Moelis rates ((HUB)) as Hold (3) –

Hub24’s FY25 result was broadly in line with Moelis’ expectations, with revenue of $401.4m, up 23.8% year-on-year, and earnings (EBITDA) of $162.4m, slightly below the broker’s $167m.

Profit of $97.8m came in ahead of the analyst’s $95.3m forecast due to lower tax expense, offsetting weaker revenue margins, higher costs, and myprosperity losses. Platform margins fell -2bps to 32bps, with management guiding to a further -1-1.5bps decline in FY26.

The broker highlights record net flows of $19.8bn, 572 new advisers, and funds under administration (FUA) per adviser up to $22m, alongside industry flows of $36bn, the strongest since 2008.

Management lifted its FUA target to $148-162bn by FY27, above its prior FY26 goal.

Momentum into FY26 remains strong, suggests the broker, though valuation is demanding. Moelis raises its target price to $117.02 from $107.94 and retains a Hold rating.

This report was published on August 19, 2025.

Target price is $117.02 Current Price is $104.84 Difference: $12.18
If HUB meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $102.59, suggesting downside of -2.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.20 cents and EPS of 151.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 69.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.3, implying annual growth of 51.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 70.7.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 88.10 cents and EPS of 184.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.4, implying annual growth of 22.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 90.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((HUB)) as Market Weight (3) –

Hub24’s FY25 result was broadly in line with Wilsons expectations, with operating revenue of $323.3m matching forecasts though -2% below consensus.

Earnings (EBITDA) of $162.4m were a marginal miss against the broker’s estimate, due to wider myprosperity losses, while platform margins were slightly better.

Adjusted EPS of 117.8c was 5% better than expected by the analysts, helped by lower tax, while free cash flow (FCF) of $121.1m was well above forecasts.

Custodial funds under administration (FUA) reached $118bn by mid-August, with $2.6bn net flows already recorded, implying to Wilsons an annualised run rate of $21bn versus $1.3bn in FY25 (excluding transitions).

Wilsons lifts its revenue forecast by 1%, FUA by 3% and adjusted EPS by 5-10%, while maintaining concerns around valuation. The target is raised to $97.20 from $92.40. Market Weight rating unchanged.

This report was published on August 19, 2025.

Target price is $97.20 Current Price is $104.84 Difference: minus $7.64 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $102.59, suggesting downside of -2.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 157.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 66.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.3, implying annual growth of 51.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 70.7.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 88.00 cents and EPS of 195.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.4, implying annual growth of 22.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 90.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JDO    JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.81

Jarden rates ((JDO)) as Buy (1) –

Judo Capital continues to execute on its SME banking strategy, highlights Jarden. Product innovation is noted, with a new savings product launching in 2H26, enhancements to working capital, and the initiation of a $109m warehouse facility.

Second half profit of $46m was up 11% half-on-half and 90% year-on-year, slightly above consensus. FY25 profit was $86m, up 24% year-on-year. Net interest income (NII) rose 11% to $214m, with the net interest margin (NIM) at 3.04% but dipping to 2.93% in June.

Deposits grew 10% and loans 7%, while costs fell -8%, lowering the cost-to-income ratio to 47.9%, highlight the analysts.

Asset quality showed some pressure, notes the broker with bad debts at -80bps of loans and stress in hospitality and retail.

FY26 guidance includes loans of $14.2-14.7bn, NIM of 3.0-3.1%, cost-to-income ratio below 50%, and profit of $180-190m in FY26, implying 43-51% growth.

Jarden maintains a Buy rating and a $2.40 target price.

This report was published on August 19, 2025.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: $0.59
If JDO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.06, suggesting upside of 13.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.8, implying annual growth of 39.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 38.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND    MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $21.19

Jarden rates ((MND)) as Overweight (2) –

Monadelphous delivered FY25 profit of $84m, 6% ahead of consensus. Jarden notes this outcome was supported by strong Engineering & Construction revenue growth of 30% year-on-year and improving Maintenance & Industrial activity through the second half.

The broker feels this level should now form a base for sustained activity after a subdued period, with group earnings (EBITDA) margins benefitting from a more balanced business mix.

Jarden sees earnings margins of around 7% sustainable into FY26, even after stripping out the one-off insurance benefit in FY25.

The broker forecasts revenue growth of 6.5% for FY26, underpinned by $2.5bn of secured work and a 22% lift in unsatisfied performance obligations.

Jarden lifts its core EPS forecasts across FY26/27 on stronger revenue and margin expectations. The target price rises to $21.50 from $18.60. Overweight rating retained.

This report was published on August 20, 2025.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $21.19 Difference: $0.31
If MND meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.13, suggesting upside of 4.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 88.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.3, implying annual growth of 5.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 70.50 cents and EPS of 90.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.2, implying annual growth of 6.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PSQ    PACIFIC SMILES GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $1.58

Wilsons – Cessation of coverage

This report was published on August 20, 2025.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RGN    REGION GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.42

Jarden rates ((RGN)) as Neutral (3) –

Region Group’s FY25 result showed net operating income growth of 3.0-3.5%, back in line with non-discretionary retail peers, according to Jarden.

The broker notes moderating expense growth, with property expenses down -1% in the second half. In a sign of improving operating leverage costs are expected to rise/worsen by -3-3.5% in FY26 against revenue growth of 4-4.5%. 

Cap rate compression of -11bps was recorded in the half, and Jarden forecasts a further -10bps  in FY26, while weighted average cost of debt (WACD) is guided at 4.6% in FY26 and should remain stable due to hedging.

With gearing at 32.5%, Jarden sees capacity for acquisitions. The broker retains a Neutral rating with a $2.60 target price.

This report was published on August 19, 2025.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.18
If RGN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting downside of -2.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of -12.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 14.80 cents and EPS of 16.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of 5.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWC    RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $4.21

Jarden rates ((RWC)) as Overweight (2) –

In Jarden’s opinion, Reliance Worldwide delivered a solid FY25 result in challenging markets, with earnings (EBITDA) of US$277.7m broadly flat year-on-year at 22.3% margins.

The broker highlights better-than-expected cost-outs of -US$19.6m, strong 98% cash conversion, along with lower capex and net interest. Progress was also noted in shifting supply chains from China to the ASEAN region.

The broker warns US tariff imposts of -US$65-70m could translate to net costs of -US$25-30m after mitigation, with impacts amplified by softer volumes due to weak consumer confidence, housing turnover and affordability pressures.

These headwinds are expected to drive operating deleverage and earnings downgrades.

Jarden cuts its earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by around -9% across FY26-28, and lowers its target price to $4.65 from $4.80.

An Overweight rating is kept, with the analysts citing resilient earnings, strong cash conversion and balance sheet strength as support for future growth.

This report was published on August 19, 2025.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $0.44
If RWC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 11.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.66 cents and EPS of 20.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 7.43 cents and EPS of 25.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.1, implying annual growth of 33.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM    SIMS LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $14.28

Jarden rates ((SGM)) as Neutral (3) –

Sims reported an FY25 operating result slightly ahead of consensus, with earnings (EBITDA) up 3%, though Jarden questions result quality.

The broker points to misses in North America and A&NZ Metals, unusual 2H25 trading profits, restructuring charges, and a receivables provision from the UK Metals sale.

North America Metals saw higher trading margins from a pivot to unprocessed scrap and domestic markets, but costs and adverse weather weighed, explain the analysts.

SA Recycling was strong on non-ferrous demand, and Lifecycle Services exceeded the broker’s expectations with data centre demand.

Management plans $100-150m in North American land sales, with reinvestment in consolidation, yards, and capex.

Jarden cuts its target price to $14.40 from $15.40 on modest EPS downgrades and valuation roll-forward, while keeping a Neutral rating. The broker views the near-term outlook as steady, supported by tariffs and non-ferrous strength.

This report was published on August 19, 2025.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $14.28 Difference: $0.12
If SGM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.36, suggesting upside of 0.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 69.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 29.70 cents and EPS of 84.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.2, implying annual growth of 44.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SRG    SRG GLOBAL LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.85

Moelis rates ((SRG)) as Buy (1) –

SRG Global delivered a solid FY25 result, according to Moelis, with earnings (EBITA) of $93.8m and profit of $53.7m, slightly ahead of the broker and consensus.

Normalised earnings (EBITDA) of $127.1m were in line with the analyst’s forecast, with margins improving to 9.6% on a stronger Engineering & Construction performance.

Maintenance and Industrial Services delivered $121.3m in earnings at a 14% margin, including a strong $19m contribution from Diona, while Engineering & Construction achieved $36.2m at 7.9% margin.

A fully franked final dividend of 3c was declared, up 20% year-on-year.

FY26 guidance is for around 10% growth in earnings, supported by work in hand of $3.6bn and a steady pipeline of $8.5bn. Buy rating and $2.00 target price retained.

This report was published on August 19, 2025.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.15
If SRG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 0.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.90 cents and EPS of 9.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.9, implying annual growth of 23.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 10.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of 11.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS    WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $26.16

Jarden rates ((WDS)) as Overweight (2) –

Woodside Energy reported first-half 2025 earnings (EBITDA) of US$4.6bn, broadly in line with forecasts by Jarden and consensus. Profit of US$1.25bn was in line with consensus but 13% ahead of the broker due to a lower tax rate.

A US53c interim dividend was declared, close to consensus but above Jarden’s forecast.

Operating cash flow (OCF) of US$3.3bn was the key miss, -21% below the broker’s estimate, driven by higher tax and restoration costs, lifting gearing to 19.5%.

The broker notes higher Sangomar reserves and lower cost trajectories partly offset the weaker cash flow outcome, with its valuation trimmed slightly.

Jarden highlights uncertainty around future Sangomar investment, given an ongoing US$75m tax dispute and a wider government tax review in Senegal.

Bass Strait decommissioning costs also remain a concern for the analysts, with provisions up/deteriorating by -US$1.1bn in three years, including -US$445m in the half, pressuring dividends.

Jarden lowers its target price to $25.60 from $25.75 and retains an Overweight rating.

This report was published on August 19, 2025.

Target price is $25.60 Current Price is $26.16 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.24, suggesting upside of 0.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 147.04 cents and EPS of 184.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 142.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 86.67 cents and EPS of 109.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.2, implying annual growth of -32.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 94.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

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