In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 19-09-25

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This story features GENERATION DEVELOPMENT GROUP LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GDG
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

GENERATION DEVELOPMENT GROUP LIMITED ((GDG)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Petra Capital upgrades its rating for Generation Development to Buy from Hold as the market is now more comfortable with the bedding-down of the Evidentia acquisition. The broker’s $7.17 target is unchanged.

Annuities are seen as a potential growth driver, supported by the Retirement Income Covenant, highlights the broker.

Currently, less than 2% of superannuation assets are in annuities, highlights Petra Capital, leaving significant scope for growth given retirees face longevity, investment, and inflation risks under account-based pensions.

Ord Minnett notes the company has a strong track record as a challenger brand, gaining share in investment bonds and positioning for annuity market disruption. 

KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED ((KCN)) Upgrade to Buy from Speculative Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Management at Kingsgate Consolidated has guided to production of 85-95koz in FY26 at costs (AISC) of US$1,550-1,750/oz. Higher-grade ore is driving the lift, while the plant is running 14% above nameplate highlights Canaccord Genuity.

The broker notes this guidance compares with 75koz at US$2,024/oz in FY25 and is below the broker’s prior 99koz estimate.

Costs are higher than modeled by the broker, but free cash flow (FCF) of $120m in FY26 should enable repayment of the remaining $52m debt.

FY25 delivered earnings (EBITDA) of $95m and profit of $29m, both below the broker’s forecasts. The analysts’ FY26 and FY27 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts are reduced by around -14%.

Canaccord raises its target price to $4.95 from $4.50 and upgrades to Buy from Speculative Buy on lowering valuation risking on an improved balance sheet and more confidence in the operational outlook.

SAYONA MINING LIMITED ((SYA)) Upgrade to Buy from Speculative Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity has resumed coverage of Sayona Mining following its merger with Piedmont Lithium. The company will be renamed Elevra Lithium. 

The broker notes the North American Lithium (NAL) spodumene mine in Quebec delivered 205kt in FY25 at -US$778/t cash costs, versus 158kt at US$1,080/t in FY24. The analysts model output of 208ktpa at US$870/t over FY26-28.

At current prices, Canaccord points out NAL is near breakeven, while expansion to 300ktpa from FY29 could reduce costs by around -15% to -US$735/t, supporting a clear economic case.

The broker highlights optionality from Moblan, a 27-year, 300ktpa project with reserves upgraded following recent drilling, and Ewoyya in Ghana, where Elevra can earn 50% with offtake rights. Both are seen as high-quality longer-term development opportunities.

Canaccord lifts its valuation to 6c from 4c a share and upgrades to Buy from Speculative Buy.

TPG TELECOM LIMITED ((TPG)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden notes TPG Telecom has underperformed excessively following energy, gas and water asset sales despite balance sheet and free float improvements.

A near-term overhang consists of minorities re-investing proceeds because that’s required to further reduce debt.

The broker expects around 224m new shares to be issued under the -$688m reinvestment plan, assuming there’s 100% take-up at a -5% discount.

At current levels, the broker highlights the implied forecast free cash flow yields of 6.5-10.3% in FY26–28 are attractive, supporting an upgrade to Overweight from Neutral.

Target trimmed to $5.25 from $5.30.

Downgrade

ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED ((ALK)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Alkane Resources’ formal FY26 guidance following the merger completion with Mandalay Resources was a clear disappointment to Moelis.

The consolidated gold production guidance was lower than the broker’s estimate at the midpoint, but the bigger negative was a miss to Tomingley’s production forecast and higher costs.

Costs guidance for all three mines were higher than the broker’s forecast, but the combination of lower production surprised negatively.

The broker cut FY26 net profit forecast by -38% and FY27 by -31%, with similar downgrades to EPS forecasts.

Target trimmed to $1.20 from $1.40. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy.

HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT ((HDN)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Last month, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT delivered FY25 funds from operations (FFO) of 8.8cpu and distribution of 8.5cpu, in line with guidance.

Moelis highlights like-for-like net operating income (NOI) growth of 4%, ahead of peers, with weighted average rent reviews (WARR) of 3.5% and leasing spreads of 6%.

The broker notes net tangible assets (NTA) rose around 1% to $1.47 in six months, as portfolio capitalisation rates compressed -6bps to 5.56%.

Gearing eased to 35.2% from 36% as the trust recycled capital, with -$310m in acquisitions and developments offset by $250m in divestments, explains the analyst. 

Management guided to FY26 FFO of 9cpu and distribution of 8.6cpu, implying a payout ratio of 95.6%. The broker highlights rebased hedging at around 50% allows earnings to benefit from falling interest rates, while capital recycling and developments remain accretive.

Moelis raises its target price to $1.44 from $1.36 but downgrades to Hold from Buy on valuation grounds.

ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED ((OBM)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Moelis downgrades its rating for Ora Banda Mining to Hold from Buy, citing the recent share price rally has eroded valuation upside despite encouraging exploration results and resource additions. The target is increased to 88c from 85c.

The analyst highlights spot price sensitivity could imply valuation near $1.10 per share, though also points out shorter mine life versus peers increases risk. 

While remaining positive on geological potential, Moelis stresses exploration requires time and success is not assured. 

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

More Highlights

AAR    ASTRAL RESOURCES NL

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.19 

Petra Capital rates ((AAR)) as Buy (1) –

Alongside the infill drilling program at its Mandilla gold project, Astral Resources is moving forward with exploration activities to achieve its definitive feasibility study by mid-2026, Petra Capital notes.

The analyst highlights the Maximus Resources acquisition added resources of 139koz as well as green and brownfield exploration potential.

The current mineral resource estimate for Spargoville global is 3Mt at 1.4g/t of Au for 139koz.

Buy rating and 35c target unchanged.

This report was published on September 9, 2025.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.16
If AAR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 63.33.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 47.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CYG    COVENTRY GROUP LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $0.68 

Petra Capital rates ((CYG)) as Buy (1) –

Coventry Group has announced a 2-for-7 non-renounceable entitlement offer to raise up to $20m, with the proceeds going to reducing debt and working capital.

Petra Capital notes all directors and major shareholders have committed to take up their entitlements, and the issue is dilutive, resulting in the target price falling to $1.02 from $1.24, with Buy rating maintained.

The FY26 trading update suggests year-to-date revenue and earnings (EBITDA) of $65.2m and $1.6m, respectively, up to August, which is below the run rate of $1.6m/month needed to meet current guidance of over $20m in earnings (EBITDA).

The analyst highlights a wet month in August and the changes in staff incentives yet to be introduced. Some $10m in cost savings were also identified by management, outside of guidance.

No change to Buy rating.

This report was published on September 16, 2025.

Target price is $1.02 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.34
If CYG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.82.

Forecast for FY27:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.67.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNC    GRAINCORP LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $8.55 

Wilsons rates ((GNC)) as Overweight (1) –

The September Abares report forecasts a rise in the 2025/26 ECA winter crop to 30mt, up 11% on the previous estimate, but remains under the prior season by -6% and above the 25-year historical average by circa 56%, Wilsons explains.

The improvement in winter crop expectations results in the analyst lifting GrainCorp’s FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 22% and FY27 by 10% as some of the additional volumes from FY26 are flagged to move into FY27.

Overweight rating retained. Target price rises to $9.05 from $8.91.

This report was published on September 9, 2025.

Target price is $9.05 Current Price is $8.55 Difference: $0.5
If GNC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.00, suggesting upside of 5.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.8, implying annual growth of 43.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.4, implying annual growth of 24.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LRK    LARK DISTILLING CO. LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $0.81 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LRK)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Lark Distilling Co has announced a CEO transition, with Stuart Gregor, co-founder of Four Pillars Gin, to take over on January 1, 2026.

Canaccord Genuity views Gregor as well suited to drive international growth after the Lark brand restage. Current CEO Sash Sharma will depart at year-end 2025 after embedding the go-to-market model.

The business is supported by $23m net cash, a 2.5m litre whisky bank, and the ability to scale production more than fivefold, explains the broker. Positive operating cash flow is expected in FY27.

Canaccord Genuity highlights the brand “restage”, including 700ml bottling and broader channels, as key to expansion. Shipments begin in Asia in 1H26, with domestic and travel retail in 2H26, and a global launch in April 2026 expected to accelerate sales.

The analysts retain a Speculative Buy rating and a $1.34 target price.

This report was published on September 16, 2025.

Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.53
If LRK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.50.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.25.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORE    OREZONE GOLD CORPORATION REGISTERED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.34 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ORE)) as Buy (1) –

An August site visit  by Canaccord Genuity to Orezone Gold’s Bombore gold project located in central Burkina Faso. reinforced the analysts’ confidence in staged hard rock expansions.

The broker forecasts production will rise to 175koz in 2026 from 124koz in 2025, with Stage 1, and to 233koz in 2027 with Stage 2.

Construction is well advanced, note the analysts with Stage 1 plant 67% complete and on track for first gold in December, while Stage 2 procurement and engineering are progressing ahead of late-2026 commissioning.

Exploration upside remains strong along the 14km trend, according to the broker, with a resource update expected in early 2026.

Canaccord highlights Orezone Gold’s valuation is well below peers. A government statement confirming state equity increases are optional is seen as constructive. The broker reiterates a Buy rating with a $2.50 target price.

This report was published on September 8, 2025.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $1.16
If ORE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.44.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.62.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VAU    VAULT MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.66 

Moelis rates ((VAU)) as Buy (1) –

Vault Minerals Ltd has released its annual Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve (MROR) update, with Moelis noting global ore reserves rose 17% year-on-year to 592koz, supported by higher gold price assumptions.

Mount Monger increased 9% to 50koz, Sugar Zone rose 20% to 64koz, while Deflector fell -27% to 72koz. Global resources declined slightly, and FY26 exploration spend was set at -$30m.

FY26 guidance remains outstanding. The analyst’s forecasts assume 358koz of production at costs (AISC) of -$2,690/oz, delivering an expected $310m cash addition by June 2026 at spot prices.

Free cash flow yields of 9% and 20% are forecast for FY26 and FY27, respectively.

The broker suggests further upside is possible if gold prices hold. Moelis retains a Buy rating and a $0.67 target price.

This report was published on September 16, 2025.

Target price is $0.67 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.015
If VAU meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.60, suggesting downside of -7.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.4, implying annual growth of 26.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. 

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.2, implying annual growth of 18.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. 

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VNT    VENTIA SERVICES GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $5.13 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((VNT)) as Buy (1) –

Ventia Services has won two Defence Base Services Transformation packages worth $2.7bn over six years, with extensions possible to ten, explains Canaccord Genuity.

The contracts cover Living and Working Services in the Northern Territory, Victoria and Tasmania, and Property and Asset Services in Western Australia, Victoria and Tasmania, adding to the National Firefighting Services contract. Operations start in February 2026.

The broker notes revenue will begin at around $400m in FY26, rising towards $500m, below the prior $550m run-rate. It’s felt this win eases risks tied to Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) price fixing claims raised in December 2024.

The broker cuts Defence and Social Infrastructure revenue and earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -3% for FY26 and FY27, with margins down -14bps in FY26.

Canaccord Genuity retains a Buy rating and a $5.65 target price.

This report was published on September 11, 2025.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $0.52
If VNT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.42, suggesting upside of 6.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.2, implying annual growth of 17.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of 7.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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