Daily Market Reports | 8:51 AM
This story features LENDLEASE GROUP, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LLC
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
US indices powered to new all-time-highs on Friday with a big week of economic announcements and Fed Speakers ahead.
The ASX200 fell for a third straight week, despite ending higher on Friday.
Futures are pointing to a positive start for the fresh new week.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8852.00 | + 24.00 | 0.27% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8773.50 | + 28.30 | 0.32% |
| S&P500 | 6664.36 | + 32.40 | 0.49% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 22631.48 | + 160.75 | 0.72% |
| DJIA | 46315.27 | + 172.85 | 0.37% |
| S&P500 VIX | 15.45 | – 0.25 | – 1.59% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.14 | + 0.04 | 0.85% |
| USD Index | 97.27 | + 0.27 | 0.28% |
| FTSE100 | 9216.67 | – 11.44 | – 0.12% |
| DAX30 | 23639.41 | – 35.12 | – 0.15% |
Good Morning,
Last Friday the Australian market rallied 28.3pts or 0.32% with seven of eleven sectors gaining, led by technology, up 0.85%.
Over the week past, the ASX200 retreated -91pts to 8773, down -01.03%, marking the third week of declines post the record high of 9054.5 in late August.
What to make of the USD reversal, Chris Weston, Pepperstone extract
After navigating last week’s deluge of macro event risk, we come into the new week refreshed and looking to profit and to manage the risks from wherever the collective takes the price.
Despite such a big week of data and some strong moves in US tech, levels of cross-asset volatility remain crushed. S&P500 20-day volatility is realising on just 7.2%, and not far from the YTD lows of 6.28%.
It’s therefore not hard to see why the VIX can’t rise above 17% when the daily close-to-close percentage changes in the S&P500 are so tight.
FX volatility is no different, with the aggregated G10 FX volatility measures (such as the JPM G10 FX vol) at 6.99%, the lowest level since July 2024, while US Treasury volatility (MOVE index) closed on Friday at 72.5%, its lowest level since January 2024.
Looking at the known event risk on the calendar for the week ahead, and with selling volatility and long carry strategies having been a highly profitable trade for many institutional players, notably on a risk-adjusted basis, it seems unlikely this week’s risk events have the potential to reverse that stance. There seems to be no strong reason to believe the steady grind higher in US equity and gold won’t continue, with pullbacks remaining shallow and well supported.
The Russell2000 is perhaps the one US equity index where the technical set-up does raise some concern, and I’d also be focused on risk to the HK50, notably if the USD upside does build and we saw the HK equity index break below last week’s low of 26,280.
While we saw a strong move last week in the US small-cap index (Russell2000) and new at the highs on Friday, the buyers lacked the impetus to push the price for a weekly close above the former highs.
The trajectory of the USD is less clear-cut, and where the greenback trades in the near-term is subject of increased debate, and one needs to be open-minded to the idea that the positive USD price action seen late last week could build.
The major macro events in the week ahead include:
-A Fed talk fest: It will be a lively week for Fed speakers, with 18 separate speeches scheduled. The central focus will be on Jay Powell’s address on Tuesday, but we’ll also hear from 2025 voters including Williams, Bowman, Musalem, Miran, Goolsbee, Schmid, and Barr.
Steven Miran’s remarks in US trade today could be particularly interesting, and, while Miran spoke on Friday, today’s speech will further lay out the case behind his call for -150bp of cuts this year and minimal recession risk, possibly a pitch for the Fed chair position?
-US (Aug) Core PCE inflation (Friday):The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is expected at 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y (from 2.6%). With the Fed’s reaction function sensitive to the labour market, only a big deviation in core PCE from the consensus would likely move US rates or cross-asset volatility.
-US Personal income & Spending (Friday):Models suggest incomes up 0.3% m/m and spending up 0.5% m/m. With rising concerns over household real incomes, loss of purchasing power, and harder-to-find jobs, this data will get close attention and could hit sentiment if it misses.
-US goods trade balance (Thursday). This is typically a low-impact release for markets, but the outcome will feed into US Q3 GDP tracking, which the Atlanta Fed’s Nowcast currently puts at 3.3%.
-PMIs (US, Europe & UK): Composite PMIs are expected to improve from July. Likely not a big driver of intra day pricing, but still a risk worth noting.
-Australia monthly CPI (Aug) – Forecast at 2.9% y/y (from 2.8%). The quarterly CPI (due 29 Oct) will ultimately be the key input for the November RBA meeting, but August CPI could shape expectations. A hotter print wouldn’t derail November cut expectations, but it could lower implied odds from circa 79% to 60–65% and lift the AUD on crosses, while putting downside risk for the ASX200.
-US Treasury issuance: The Treasury auctions US $183bn of 2-, 5- and 7-year notes this week. Demand levels will influence US Treasury yields and, by extension, USD direction.
-China’s 1- & 5-year Loan Prime Rate (Monday):The LPR is the reference rate for most commercial loans. Despite expectations of further stimulus this year, the PBoC is widely seen holding the 1-year at 3% and the 5-year at 3.5%.
Party like it’s 1999, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Quicktakes extract
The DJIA, S&P500, Nasdaq, and Russell2000 all rose to record highs this past week. All were boosted by the Fed’s decision to cut the federal funds rate by -25bps on Wednesday.
Is the stock market back on the road to the same irrational exuberance that inflated the Tech Bubble of 1999, which was followed by the Tech Wreck of the early 2000s? Will the theme song for 2026 be “Party Like It’s 1999”?
Perhaps. However, the S&P500 has been driven to new highs this year by better-than-expected earnings. S&P500 forward earnings per share rose to a record US$294.91 during the September 18 week, on its way to converging at year-end with the analysts’ consensus for 2026.
The latter continues to rise, reaching US$304.88 this past week. (FYI: Since forward earnings is the time-weighted average of analysts’ consensus estimates for the current and following years, it always matches the following year’s estimate at year-end.)
The rally in the S&P SMidCaps (i.e., S&P 400MidCaps and S&P600 SmallCaps) may finally be getting some support from those indexes’ forward earnings too
Meanwhile, the S&P100 MegaCaps continue to outperform the S&P500, as they did during the Party of 1999. September, which has the worst track record for the S&P500, isn’t over yet, but the month is a winner so far this year. The S&P500 may not be tracking its average seasonal pattern, but the 2015-now index is closely tracking the 1980-2010 index.
One of the main differences between now and then is that the S&P500 forward P/E has been significantly higher now compared to then. It is currently 22.0x, not much below the 25.0x peak of the 1999 Tech Bubble.
The Roaring 2020s remains our base-case scenario for the remainder of the decade. We are still targeting the S&P500 to get to 7700 by the end of next year.
If the stock market parties like it’s 1999 in response to the Fed’s monetary easing, then we might get there sooner as a result of a melt-up that could be followed by a meltdown. If so, the hangover this time isn’t likely to be as severe as the one that followed the Party of 1999, in our opinion.
Indeed, we expect that the Roaring 2020s will be followed by the Roaring 2030s. Since the 1920s, there have been four Roaring decades, i.e., with the S&P500 rising over 200%.
We may be in a fifth now, to be followed by a sixth during the 2030s.
Corporate news in Australia
-ASIC has found the private credit sector is operating below international standards and might be a systemic risk for self-managed super funds.
-Macropod has been awarded a license for Australia’s first stablecoin AUDM by ASIC.
-Lendlease Group ((LLC)) is looking to attract $350m institutional funds to buy out industry fund Hostplus’ position in three APPF sub funds.
-Westpac ((WBC)) is selling its $30bn RAMS loan book with Bank of America running the auction.
-The Murdochs have been mentioned by President Trump as inclusions in the US group likely to buy TikTok’s US business
-Humm Group ((HUM)) has delayed results due to Abercrombie’s $286m buyout proposal.
-Nufarm ((NUF)) reportedly selling its $900m seed business to UPL-owned Advanta Enterprises
-Emeco Holdings ((EHL)) is under takeover interest from US, Saudi and local mining groups.
On the calendar today:
-CH 1yr, 5yr loan prime rate
-US Aug Chicago Fed
-BISALLOY STEEL GROUP LIMITED ((BIS)) ex-div 16.50c (100%)
-NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED ((NHC)) ex-div 15c (100%)
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 3705.80 | + 27.60 | 0.75% |
| Silver (oz) | 42.95 | + 0.85 | 2.01% |
| Copper (lb) | 4.63 | + 0.03 | 0.65% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.21 | – 0.01 | – 0.88% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.87 | + 0.02 | 0.23% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.31 | – 0.01 | – 0.62% |
| West Texas Crude | 62.68 | – 0.97 | – 1.52% |
| Brent Crude | 66.68 | – 0.83 | – 1.23% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 105.44 | + 0.20 | 0.19% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days…
| Index | 19 Sep 2025 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Sep) | Quarter To Date (Jul-Sep) | Year To Date (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8773.50 | -1.03% | -2.22% | 2.71% | 7.53% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| AD8 | Audinate Group | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
| CNI | Centuria Capital | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
| COF | Centuria Office REIT | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
| COH | Cochlear | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| DBI | Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Morgans |
| EBO | Ebos Group | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
| FMG | Fortescue | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
| HDN | HomeCo Daily Needs REIT | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| MFG | Magellan Financial | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| MIN | Mineral Resources | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
| NHC | New Hope | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| NTU | Northern Minerals | Downgrade to Hold from Speculative Buy | Ord Minnett |
| PDN | Paladin Energy | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| PME | Pro Medicus | Upgrade to Buy from Sell | Citi |
| RFF | Rural Funds | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| RRL | Regis Resources | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
| STO | Santos | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| Downgrade to Trim from Accumulate | Morgans | ||
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author’s and not by association FNArena’s – see disclaimer on the website)
All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts on the website and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.
Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: “Your Feedback (Thank You)” – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com
FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On
Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms
CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BIS - BISALLOY STEEL GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EHL - EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HUM - HUMM GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LLC - LENDLEASE GROUP
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NHC - NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NUF - NUFARM LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WBC - WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION