The Overnight Report: Having A Good Time

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Another rinse and repeat day, with US investors buying the dip. The S&P500 and Nasdaq lifted to new all-time-highs with gold and bitcoin joining the party.

After a lacklustre day yesterday, ASX200 futures are pointing to the market testing the 9,000 level, again!

Good Morning,

The Australian market slipped for a third straight day on Wednesday, down -9 points or -0.1%, to 8,948. Consumer Discretionary and Technology stocks were the weakest while Miners and Healthcare outperformed.

What happened overnight, NAB Markets Today Research

“So, don’t stop me now, Don’t stop me, ‘Cause I’m having a good time, Having a good time” – Queen

The S&P500, up 0.6% and NASDAQ, up 1.1%, have both closed at new record highs with the technology sector again leading the charge, happily ignoring warnings from the likes of the IMF, Bank of England about a boom turning to bust a la the dotcom era. 

The USD is firmer, aided by slightly higher Treasury yields but for the most part because of disdain for most other currencies (not least JPY). In these circumstances, gold can continue to do no wrong, powering up through US$4,000 to as high as US$4,059. 

FOMC Minutes released a couple of hours ago haven’t had a major impact, with an initial slight extension rise in US front-end Treasury yields since reversed. The most eye-catching facet of the Minutes was that a ‘majority’ of FOMC members emphasised upside risk to the inflation outlook, with only a ‘couple’ saying inflation would be close to goal excluding tariffs. 

On the labour market, participants “generally expected that, under appropriate monetary policy, labor market conditions would be little changed or would soften modestly,” while noting that weak payrolls gains in recent months likely reflected “declines in growth of both labor supply and labor demand.”

The Minutes showed ‘most’ FOMC members supported further rate cuts, but that was of course already evident from the new dot plot which showed a slender majority seeing a further -50bp of rate cuts this year on top of the -25bp September reduction. Elsewhere in the US, there has been no movement towards resolution of the US government shutdown, besides threats of some government workers currently furloughed not getting made whole as and when the shutdown ends.

In Europe, outgoing PM Lecornu was on French TV to say President Macron should be able to name a new Premier in the next 48 hours and with the hope this could bring some stability to the French political landscape. He says we “need to find way on pension reform”, in which respect he said earlier in the day there had been ‘good consultations’ with other parties that could allow a new budget by the end of the year. 

Key here is that the promoter of the recent increase in the retirement age to 64 from 62 – bitterly opposed by both left and right leaning factions in France – said she was open to suspending that law if it meant bringing stability to the country. This helped the OAT-Bund 10-year spread narrow a couple of basis points (France down -5.5bps on the day, Germany -3.0bps). The prospect of a new government being formed who can pass a budget is all well and good, but the suggestion is that it would be a deficit of ‘under 5.0%’ (read 4.9-something) not the reduction to 4.7% of GDP earlier envisaged, and which was the reason for the government fall.

The economic calendar has remained light amid the ongoing US government shutdown. 

German industrial production slumped -4.3% m/m in August, a much greater fall than expected, although forewarned by the prior day’s poor factory orders data.

An -18.5% drop in auto production, partly explained by annual plant closures for holidays and production changeovers, was a key driver. The data suggest the weak German economy persisted in Q3 and raised the risk of a technical recession.

Note German chancellor Merz earlier this week said he wanted to cancel plans for an early phase out of ICE car production to aid the German auto sector. So be it, but it’s lack of export demand from China and with sales into the US market hamstrung by tariffs, that are the issues which extending the life of supply chains can’t fix.

In FX markets, the NZD has recovered a little from the slump it suffered in the wake of yesterday’s -50bp RBNZ rate cut and the promise of more to come in the accompanying RBNZ statement, following which our BNZ colleagues formalised their forecast for another (final) -25bp cut in November. 

The RBNZ’s assessment justifying its decision was that they down-weighted the -0.9% contraction in Q2 GDP, saying that the Committee has revised its assessment of current spare capacity only marginally in response to new GDP and activity data.

The case for a -50bps cut rested on the chance of prolonged spare capacity in the economy and its associated downside risks to medium-term inflation (which they have returning to target by the middle of next year after admitting that Q3 CPI could print above the top of the 2-3% target band).

NZD/USD is ’only’ down -0.25% in the last 48 hours, while AUD is the only G10 currency to hold a gain against a stronger USD, in which respect higher commodity prices, for gold, oil, aluminium and to a lesser extent iron ore have been helpful to its cause. 

US Treasuries are coming into the New York close with 2-year yields up 2bps, about 0.5bp off highs, and the 10 year yield up less than 1bp. 

Gold rose as high as $4,059 but has eased to US$4,041 into the New York close. Oil is up just over 1% for both Brent and WTI benchmarks.

Australian Morning Focus, ANZ Bank, Commodities extract

Crude oil gained amid signs of strong demand. In the Energy Information Administration’s latest inventory report, product inventory recorded strong drawdowns. Gasoline stockpiles fell by -1.601kbbl last week, while distillate fuel fell -2,018kbbl. The latter was the largest decline since June. The drawdowns also resulted in weekly fuel demand hitting its highest level since 2022.

This was despite overall US commercial stockpiles rising by 3,715lbbl, driven by a decline in exports. However, the gains were capped by concerns of oversupply, with OPEC-Plus ramping up production. The group announced over the weekend it would increase output by 137kb/d rise in November, the same amount that was agreed for October.

Concerns about disruptions to Russian supply are also easing. Crude oil shipments held close to a 16-month high over the past four weeks. Reports have also emerged Indian refiners are set to boost oil imports from Russia in coming months. This comes as discounts widen amid ample supplies.

Global gas prices fell as concerns of renewed supply disruptions eased. European gas futures declined by more than -1.5% as storage levels reached 83% full as of 6 October. While this is lower than the five-year seasonal average of 91%, it’s on schedule to reach its targeted levels before the heating season begins.

North Asian LNG prices lacked any support from price sensitive buyers. The recent gains have pushed Indian buyers on to the sidelines after a flurry of deals in recent weeks. High inventories in Japan are also likely to keep demand subdued. LNG stockpiles held by Japanese power generators increased by 2.2% w/w to 1.87mt on 5 October, according to data released by the trade ministry.

Gold broke through the US$4,000/oz level as concerns over the US economy and the government shutdown continue to boost investor demand. The precious metal traded at only half this level just two years ago, with this year’s gains amounting to 54%.

The last time it recorded such gains was in the 1970s, when rapid inflation and the end of the gold standard sparked a 15-fold rally of the precious metal. That period was also marked by political pressure on the Fed from then-US President Nixon to lower rates.

The rally has garnered interest from key investors. Ray Dalio said gold is certainly more of a safe haven than the USD, while Citadel founder Ken Griffin said the bullion’s rise reflects anxiety about the US currency.

Copper briefly touched a 16-month high amid further concerns of tight supply. Teck Resources cut its output projection to 170–190kt this year from previous guidance of 210–230kt. It also reduced annual targets for the coming three years. This follows a series of supply disruptions that have eroded the market’s confidence of any further growth in supply.

However, the gains were reversed later in the session amid questions over the scale and speed of further US interest rate cuts. The latest minutes from the FOMC meeting showed inflation remains a concern.

Activity in the iron ore market has been subdued, with China’s markets closed over the past week. However, the market is likely to be concerned with further efforts to limit China’s steel exports. European officials are proposing a lower quota on steel imports that don’t attract tariffs. At the same time, it would double the tariff on steel imports above that quota to 50%. China accounts for 37% of the EU’s steel imports

Corporate news in Australia

-Pro Medicus ((PME)) announces a $10m contract to supply Visage 7 to University Hospital Heidelberg and German Cancer Research centre.

-MA Financial Group ((MAF)) and Keppel REIT are acquiring Top Ryde City Shopping Centre for $525m, with MA Financial to manage the asset.

-Airtasker ((ART)) has secured a $5.1m media-for-equity deal with Channel 4 to boost UK expansion.

-Sembcorp is in advanced talks with Alinta Energy to support local transition projects from Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund.

-Igneo Infrastructure is selling a 15.1% stake in Adelaide Airport with IFM Investors tipped as a likely buyer.

-South32 ((S32)) is working with Macquarie Capital in a possible sale of its Carrington silver mine.

-Toubani Resources ((TRE)) is looking to raise $390m to fund Kobada gold mining project aiming for 162koz annual production.

-Aura Group launches $30m pre-IPO ahead of $150m ASX float.

On the calendar today:

-AU MI Cons Inflation Expectations

-US Aug Wholesale Inventories (suspended)

-US Weekly Jobless Claims (suspended)

-CLIME INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CIW)) ex-div 0.5c (100%)

-DUXTON WATER LIMITED ((D2O)) ex-div 3.72c (100%)

-NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) 1Q25 Update

-REA GROUP LIMITED ((REA)) AGM

-TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED ((TNE)) investor briefing

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

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