Weekly Reports | 10:05 AM
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Risk off sentiment across financial markets seeped into uranium with a fall in the spot price and a lack of activity.
-JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon makes a US$1.5trn commitment including nuclear energy
-Activity in the spot and term markets fell as the U308 spot price retreated
-Did Paladin Energy's September quarter results justify the stock price move?
By Danielle Ecuyer
Big money keeps coming to AI and nuclear energy
Amidst all the talk of ‘bubbles’ across artificial intelligence and crypto markets, the one feature that remains a constant is the growing demand for reliable energy across developed and emerging market economies.
Nuclear, for its part, looks set to take an even greater role, with major commitments announced in 2025 from the US, India, China and Europe, which have been a mainstay of the more positive outlook across the sector and for uranium producers and new project developments.
JPMorgan Chase is the latest major institution to announce a US$1.5trn ten-year plan to facilitate, finance, and invest in industries critical to economic security and resiliency, with direct equity and venture capital investments of up to US$10bn to assist companies in boosting their growth, increasing innovation, and accelerating strategic manufacturing.
The Security and Resiliency Initiative is targeted at four main segments: supply chain and advanced manufacturing, defense and aerospace, energy independence and resilience, and frontier and strategic technologies.
These categories have been subdivided into 27 separate segments, of which the energy component includes nuclear for power generation through next-generation nuclear technology, as well as grid resilience, distributed energy, battery storage and solar. The aim is a diversified source of energy production alongside modernisation and resilience of the grid, both essential to the national interest and advancing artificial intelligence.
JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon stated:
“This new initiative includes efforts like ensuring reliable access to life-saving medicines and critical minerals, defending our nation, building energy systems to meet AI-driven demand and advancing technologies like semiconductors and data centers. Our support of clients in these industries remains unwavering.”
The CEO’s comments again highlight the need for robust energy systems to address AI-related demand and serve as another example of the changing structures of 21st-century economies.
Spot market quieter in a week of volatility on financial markets
After a few weeks of positive momentum in the U308 spot market, a rising tide of risk-off sentiment and heightened volatility in financial markets saw a considerably quieter week, with no activity in the first four days of last week, according to industry consultants TradeTech, leaving the spot price unchanged at US$79/lb.
Two transactions were conducted on the last day of trading, each for 50klbs of U308, both for delivery in November at Orano’s facility in France.
A third transaction after the close for delivery of 50klbs of U308 in December at Honeywell’s ConverDyn facility in the US was conducted at US$76.50/lb but has not been incorporated into TradeTech’s determined weekly spot price as the transaction occurred after the close.
The consultant’s U308 weekly spot price indicator fell -US$1.65/lb to US$77.35. TradeTech’s mid-term price indicator sits at US$87/lb and the long-term price indicator at US$84/lb.
The spot price has declined -5.1% in October and retreated -7.9% since the late September high of US$84lb.
No new transactions were reported in the term market, which is characterised by a decline in sellers as some utilities have pulled forward purchase plans, taking up previously uncommitted capacity or inventory, while other utilities postponed purchases only to encounter higher prices and less available supply.
TradeTech reports several outstanding requests for purchase from utilities in the term market, including one non-US utility looking for almost 900klbs of U308, with delivery commencing in 2027 and extending to 2036.
Latest corporate news from Australia
After Paladin Energy’s ((PDN)) travails from a year ago, when the September quarter results were impacted by a lack of water supply, this year’s quarterly update was a relative breath of fresh air.
Macquarie has reinstated coverage of Paladin with one of the highest target prices at $11.25, following September quarter production of 1.1mlbs, which was considered “solid,” with the rate expected to accelerate into 2H26.
The stock is currently pricing in around a US$72.5/lb U308 price, with Macquarie lifting its long-term U308 price forecast to US$95/lb, a level considered sufficient to allow for adequate returns on marginal greenfields projects.
Deep Yellow’s ((DYL)) Tumas project and Bannerman Energy’s ((BMN)) Etango project are viewed as marginal at lower grade pre-final investment decision. They may need a U308 floor price of US$85/lb in market-related contracts, above the current US$70–US$75/lb level, the broker reckons.
Morgan Stanley viewed Paladin’s quarterly as strong, with both production and costs outperforming expectations as the ramp-up at Langer Heinrich remains on track.
Bell Potter sees the September update as another good quarter, noting Paladin is well positioned to achieve the upper end of its production guidance as mine rates rise over 2H26.
Canaccord Genuity is the most upbeat when it comes to target prices, reiterating its Buy rating on Paladin Energy while lowering its target to $12.50 from $13.05. This analyst believes Patterson Lake South will position Paladin as a major player in the industry, sustaining annual production of around 9.1mlbs and all-in sustaining costs of US$15.2/lb.
Langer Heinrich is in the final stages of its ramp-up, and Paladin has cash and cash equivalents of around US$302m, anticipated to support both Patterson Lake South and Langer Heinrich, which reported production of 727lbs for July–August.
As part of the broker’s U308 September quarter review, the analyst notes the spot price rose 5% to US$82/lb from US$78/lb, and the term price moved out of its 15-month trading range of US$79–US$81/lb to US$82/lb, the highest since May 2008.
In contrast, Ord Minnett stands out as less enthusiastic about Paladin’s sales result, with September quarter volume of 533klbs noted as the only “blemish,” being a big miss against consensus at 908klbs.
This analyst also lowered its U308 forecast price for FY26/FY27 spot and term by around -3% to -5%, which results in a reduced price target of $7.50 from $7.60.
Ord Minnett has downgraded the stock to Sell from Hold, believing the 100%-plus rally in the share price over the last six months is not justified relative to the rise in the U308 spot price of 18% over the same period.
The company is nonetheless highlighted as the highest quality ASX-listed uranium stock for longer-term capital growth, with Patterson Lake South considered a world-class project.
FNArena’s daily monitored brokers have a consensus target price of $9.714.
For more information on Paladin, check out our latest update:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/17/paladin-energy-powering-on/
Short interests updated for the week
Short interests remained a feature for Australian U308-related stocks. Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) moved to number two position of the most shorted stocks as at October 14 at 17.39%, down -1.47% points on the prior week.
Paladin is in sixth position with a 12.10% short position, relatively unchanged on the previous week. Silex Systems ((SLX)) is in fifteenth position at 8.38% (from 8.76% the week before) and Lotus Resources sits in twenty fourth position at 5.62%, down -0.69% points on the week.
More reading on uranium at FNArena:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/14/uranium-week-price-frenzy-fades/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/07/uranium-week-september-spot-price-rips/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/09/16/uranium-week-buyers-strike-pre-major-deals/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/26/uranium-week-kazatomprom-sparks-a-rally/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/05/uranium-week-supply-challenges-are-mounting/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 17/10/2025 | 0.1000 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 17/10/2025 | 0.2000 |  – 4.17% |
$0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 17/10/2025 | 0.0300 | -10.00% |
$0.05 | $0.02 | $0.070 |  133.3% |
|
| AKN | 17/10/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 17/10/2025 | 0.1000 | 6.67% |
$0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 17/10/2025 | 0.5650 | – 0.88% |
$0.70 | $0.31 | |||
| BMN | 17/10/2025 | 3.3800 | – 4.09% |
$4.07 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 39.1% |
|
| BOE | 17/10/2025 | 1.7400 | – 4.95% |
$4.75 | $1.57 | 9.3 | $2.371 | 36.3% |
| BSN | 17/10/2025 | 0.0600 | – 5.00% |
$0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 17/10/2025 | 0.0300 | 10.00% |
$0.13 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 17/10/2025 | 0.1200 | 18.18% |
$0.14 | $0.06 | $0.110 | – 8.3% |
|
| CXU | 17/10/2025 | 0.0200 | -33.33% |
$0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 17/10/2025 | 0.1300 | -10.71% |
$0.18 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 17/10/2025 | 1.9500 | 12.08% |
$2.49 | $0.75 | -384.0 | $1.930 | – 1.0% |
| EL8 | 17/10/2025 | 0.3900 | 2.27% |
$0.50 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 17/10/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 17/10/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.01 | |||
| GUE | 17/10/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 17/10/2025 | 0.1900 | 14.71% |
$0.25 | $0.04 | |||
| I88 | 17/10/2025 | 0.5400 | – 7.14% |
$0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 17/10/2025 | 0.0800 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 17/10/2025 | 0.7900 | 10.39% |
$0.90 | $0.55 | |||
| LOT | 17/10/2025 | 0.2000 | – 4.55% |
$0.29 | $0.13 | $0.295 | 47.5% |
|
| MEU | 17/10/2025 | 0.0700 | 10.00% |
$0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 17/10/2025 | 13.0700 | 1.57% |
$14.63 | $6.44 | $12.925 | – 1.1% |
|
| ORP | 17/10/2025 | 0.0600 | 50.00% |
$0.06 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 17/10/2025 | 8.8800 | 4.78% |
$12.83 | $3.93 | 74.4 | $9.714 | 9.4% |
| PEN | 17/10/2025 | 0.6400 | 15.25% |
$2.10 | $0.28 | $1.330 | 107.8% |
|
| SLX | 17/10/2025 | 7.6500 | 9.62% |
$7.87 | $2.28 | $6.500 | -15.0% |
|
| TOE | 17/10/2025 | 0.4500 | 1.11% |
$0.52 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 17/10/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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