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The US Administration has prioritised AI and energy production as part of its national security program the largest since the Apollo program.
- Genesis Mission and AI electrification reinforce the long term case for U308 demand
- Reactor build, restarts and life extensions drive a multi decade uplift in uranium consumption
- Supply restraint and trust buying keep the market in deficit through 2029
By Danielle Ecuyer
Energy and AI rated as a national security imperative
As 2025 draws to a close and activity levels in both the U308 spot and term markets moderate, the outlook as proffered by major brokers continues to shine brightly for uranium and the global nuclear power industry.
While narratives around an “AI bubble” continue to do the rounds, the US Administration launched the Genesis Mission on November 24, through an Executive Order from President Trump, “as a dedicated, coordinated national effort to unleash a new age of AI accelerated innovation and discovery that can solve the most challenging problems of this century.”
The mission aims to substantially accelerate scientific discovery, strengthen national security, secure energy dominance, enhance workforce productivity, and increase America’s technological dominance and global strategic leadership.
The head of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy described this as “the largest marshalling of federal scientific resources since the Apollo program”.
The program is expected to accelerate the rate of scientific breakthroughs in areas such as pharmaceuticals, energy production and engineering, of which nuclear fission and fusion energy are a part of the order.
AI and its adjacent industries, notably power generation and energy sources, have national security importance and the two remain inextricably linked, with the growth in AI processing reliant upon increased power generation capacity.
Utilities and producers caught in a contracting dilemma
UBS’ latest deep dive into the uranium segment stresses U308 demand is based almost entirely on demand from the operation of nuclear reactors.
Currently nuclear reactors represent around 9-10% of global electricity generation, with 438 nuclear reactors operating in 2024 producing around 3,000TWh of electricity per year which equates to a baseline of around 180Mlb of U308 or circa 65-70kt of uranium consumption annually.
There are some 70 reactors in construction globally which could raise an additional 10-15Mlbs of U308 of demand per annum towards the end of the decade.
There is also potential incremental demand from restarts and existing nuclear plant life extensions.
UBS forecasts U308 demand to rise by over 50% by 2035 and over 80% by 2040, underpinned by rising nuclear power generation, (think AI growth).
The broker’s projections translate to a compound average growth rate (CAGR) of circa 3.6% in U308 demand this decade, rising to around 4% CAGR from 2030-2040.
Under the COP28 declaration to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, the broker envisages demand to advance by over 60% by 2035 and 100% by 2040, a 4.5% CAGR.
Over 50% of the world’s nuclear power generation comes from three countries; the US at 29%, France at 13% and China at 16%. As China and India are rapidly growing their nuclear capacity, China’s share is anticipated to double to around 35% from circa 18% by 2035, representing some three quarters of demand growth over the next decade.
Turning to supply, some 75% comes from Kazakhstan (39%), Canada (24%) and Namibia (12%). Production has remained stable over the last 10 years and UBS now anticipates supply growth over the next decade of 6%-plus from 2025-2030 from restarts, ramp up of idled capacity and existing brownfield operations coming online in the early 2030s.
The uranium market is expected to remain in deficit from 2025-2029.
Currently the analysis describes the U308 market as in a “contracting cycle dilemma”.
Utilities are slowly contracting despite increasing requirements not covered by contracts. In turn, producers are deferring release of underlying supply or investment in new capacity until longer term contracting demand rises at a price that is high enough to incentivise bringing supply on stream.
In the spot market, physical uranium trusts like Sprott Physical Uranium Trust continue to accumulate inventory and remove volumes.
UBS believes utility demand can be deferred but not canceled, which means longer term contracting rates will by necessity have to increase and breach consumption towards the end of the decade.
Morgan Stanley remains upbeat on U308 outlook
Morgan Stanley emphasised how uranium was added to the US list of critical minerals alongside copper, metallurgical coal and potash last month.
The US government also announced a US$80bn partnership with Westinghouse Electric’s owners Cameco and Brookfield Asset Management to speed up the development of nuclear reactors.
The aim is to meet the growing demand for electricity from AI data centres and industrial electrification.
The Morgan Stanley sustainability team forecasts around 587GW of new global nuclear capacity additions by 2050 versus circa 400GW currently.
The commodities team remains positive on uranium with a forecast price of US$87/lb for 1Q2026 and US$90/lb by 2Q2026.
U308 spot and term markets soften into year end
Industry consultants TradeTech noted the U308 spot price indicator declined -US$6.75/lb from October 31 to US$75.75/lb by the end of November, but the price is still up US$11.75/lb from the low of US$64/lb at the end of March.
Utilities have not actively stepped into the spot market as the price declined, which TradeTech attributes to utilities not needing material to be delivered before the end of the fiscal year with relatively constrained discretionary spending power available in their budgets.
Forty-three transactions were conducted in November in the spot market for a total of 3.7mlbs of U308, with half of the transactions involving 50klb lots. The industry consultants also observe activity in the U308 spot market is tending to more closely align with the general sentiment underpinning financial markets.
The TradeTech Mid-term U308 price indicator slipped to US$86.50 at the end of November from US$87/lb at the end of October, and the consultants’ Long-term price indicator was unchanged at US$86/lb.
The consultants explain buyers have been more willing to secure one-time deliveries in the mid-term delivery window and sellers have been more proactive and competitive to secure the business which also characterised the month of November.
Stock updates and short interests on the move
Morgan Stanley continues to rate Paladin Energy ((PDN)) as an Overweight with a $10.40 target price as Langer Heinrich continues to scale up full mining. Its Patterson Lake project in Canada offers growth of 9Mlbs p.a. from 2031.
Boss Energy ((BOE)) remains Underweight rated with ongoing risks around Honeymoon’s mine life, opex and capex as an overhang on investor sentiment and the stock.
An expert report is anticipated to be completed this month. Target price set at $1.85.
As at November 25, short interests as reported by ASIC had risen in Boss by 1.83% over the prior week to 24.07%. Boss remains the number one shorted stock on the ASX.
Paladin has moved up to the third most shorted position by 0.91% to 13.26% and Lotus Resources ((LOT)) shorts have risen by 0.74% to 7.9% with that stock scrapping in at number twenty most shorted.
For more weekly reading on uranium updates at FNArena, see:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/25/uranium-week-geo-politics-japans-restart/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/18/uranium-week-risk-off-rules/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/11/uranium-week-biggest-spot-fall-since-march/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/28/uranium-week-projecting-us150-lb-post-2026/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/21/uranium-week-jpmorgans-us1-5trn-plan/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 28/11/2025 | 0.1000 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 28/11/2025 | 0.1700 | 0.00% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 28/11/2025 | 0.0200 |  4.17% | $0.04 | $0.02 | $0.070 | 250.0% | |
| AKN | 28/11/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 28/11/2025 | 0.0700 |  – 5.19% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 28/11/2025 | 0.5200 | 4.00% | $0.70 | $0.31 | |||
| BMN | 28/11/2025 | 2.9000 | 7.14% | $4.07 | $1.76 | $5.100 | 75.9% | |
| BOE | 28/11/2025 | 1.5800 | 6.95% | $4.75 | $1.51 | 8.3 | $2.279 | 44.2% |
| BSN | 28/11/2025 | 0.0540 | 8.00% | $0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 28/11/2025 | 0.0230 | -11.54% | $0.09 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 28/11/2025 | 0.2300 | 12.50% | $0.27 | $0.06 | $0.230 | ||
| CXU | 28/11/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 28/11/2025 | 0.1700 | 3.03% | $0.18 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 28/11/2025 | 1.6000 | 3.81% | $2.49 | $0.75 | -328.0 | $1.930 | 20.6% |
| EL8 | 28/11/2025 | 0.2800 | 12.00% | $0.50 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 28/11/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 28/11/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.01 | |||
| GUE | 28/11/2025 | 0.0600 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 28/11/2025 | 0.1500 | 7.14% | $0.25 | $0.04 | |||
| I88 | 28/11/2025 | 0.2500 | – 4.00% | $0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 28/11/2025 | 0.0600 | -14.29% | $0.11 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 28/11/2025 | 0.6600 | 0.00% | $0.88 | $0.55 | |||
| LOT | 28/11/2025 | 0.1600 | 3.23% | $0.26 | $0.13 | $0.337 | 110.4% | |
| MEU | 28/11/2025 | 0.0800 | 1.41% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 28/11/2025 | 13.5300 | 13.83% | $15.21 | $6.44 | $15.375 | 13.6% | |
| ORP | 28/11/2025 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 28/11/2025 | 7.9800 | 8.99% | $9.95 | $3.93 | 67.9 | $9.843 | 23.3% |
| PEN | 28/11/2025 | 0.4800 | 15.73% | $1.61 | $0.28 | $1.330 | 177.1% | |
| SLX | 28/11/2025 | 8.1800 | 11.82% | $10.85 | $2.28 | $11.200 | 36.9% | |
| TOE | 28/11/2025 | 0.4000 | 12.68% | $0.52 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 28/11/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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