Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Recent price signals in the U308 spot market underscore the volatility and upside risks to prices against a growing future supply deficit.
- Uranium price spike signals SuperCycle momentum
- Brokers lift U308 price targets as supply deficits deepen
- Upgraded price targets for uranium producers/developers
- Weekly spot market becalmed due to public holidays
By Danielle Ecuyer
Another week, another broker joins the bullish U308 price chorus
Shaw and Partners has joined peers in lifting its U308 price forecasts, following recent upgrades by Canaccord Genuity and UBS to US$110/lb and US$100/lb, respectively.
For more details see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/10/uranium-week-volatility-kicks-up-a-gear/
In its latest Uranium Sector update, Shaw said the recent U308 price spike to US$102/lb from US$85/lb in three days highlighted the volatility and potential scale of the current uranium cycle.
The broker has lifted its uranium price forecasts to US$175/lb from US$150/lb in 2027 and to US$200/lb from US$150/lb in 2028.
Its long-term assumption rises to US$120/lb from 2032, up from US$90/lb previously. Shaw argues structural supply deficits could exceed -200Mlb per year, with uranium availability becoming a constraint on global nuclear power expansion.
The report points to increasing global support for nuclear energy, driven by energy security, decarbonisation and rising electricity demand from AI and data centres.
Demand is projected to rise materially by 2040, while mine supply remains constrained and the visible project pipeline appears insufficient to close the gap.
Utilities continue to contract below replacement levels, inventories have declined in recent years, and term prices have been trending higher, setting the stage for increased contracting activity.
Higher U308 price assumptions drive upgraded target prices
Shaw recommends an Overweight position in uranium equities, nominating Paladin Energy ((PDN)), NexGen Energy ((NXG)), Silex Systems ((SLX)), Bannerman Energy ((BMN)), Peninsula Energy ((PEN)) and Boss Energy ((BOE)) as preferred exposures, all with Buy (High risk) ratings.
Bannerman’s price target has been lifted to $6.50 from $4.70. The upgrade reflects higher uranium price assumptions and reduced project risk following the strategic transaction with CNNC.
Bannerman’s core asset is its 52.25% stake in the Etango Uranium Project in Namibia. The project hosts a 207Mlb resource, is fully permitted and construction has commenced, with first production targeted for 2028.
The sale of a 45% stake in Etango to CNNC for US$321m fully funds construction to first production and secures a 60% offtake agreement, reducing financing and execution risk. Shaw also incorporates expansion options such as Etango-XP into its base case, which would double throughput.
Price targets were upgraded across the sector, with Paladin lifted to $17.50 from $10, NexGen to $22.90 from $17.80, Silex to $12.80 from $11.20, Peninsula to $1.93 from $1.33 and Boss to $3.15 from $2.63.
Peninsula has reported a commissioning issue at its Lance Uranium Project, with agitators in the precipitation circuit at the Central Process Plant failing due to incorrect installation by the EPC contractor.
The units will be replaced over the next 6–8 weeks at a cost of -US$230k, which is claimable under warranty. Production guidance of 400–500klb for 2026 remains unchanged. The issue does not affect wellfield performance or the front end of the plant, and uranium recovery will continue during repairs.
Early results from Mine Unit-4 indicate stronger flow rates and higher grades than under previous alkaline operations, including one well at 352mg/L and several above 50mg/L.
Management continues to target ramp-up towards the 2Mlb per annum nameplate capacity over the next two to three years, supported by the shift to low pH chemistry and improving recovery rates.
Canaccord Genuity has maintained its Speculative Buy rating and $1.53 price target on Peninsula following a recent operational update.
The broker has also undertaken site visits, including to Paladin’s Langer Heinrich mine, where it noted operational progress after a December quarter production beat.
Canaccord has lifted its FY26 production forecast for Paladin to 4.7Mlb, above current guidance of 4.0–4.4Mlb. Mining fleet commissioning is trending ahead of schedule and plant performance remains stable.
Processing issues associated with the MG3 (mineralises grade 3) stockpile have largely been resolved. Management is focused on ore blending to maintain consistent feed and recovery rates. Water supply reliability has improved, supported by on-site buffer infrastructure and tailings water recovery above 60%.
A Buy rating is retained on Paladin with a $16.00 price target.
Following a site visit to Deep Yellow’s Tumas project in Namibia, Canaccord maintains a Speculative Buy rating and $3.01 target price.
While a final investment decision has not yet been taken, bulk earthworks are progressing and detailed engineering is more than 60% complete. Long-lead items, including the mill, have received board approval, preserving flexibility for 2028 first production.
Updated project metrics outline pre-production capex of -US$474m, AISC of US$44.52/lb and steady-state production of 3.6Mlb per annum over a 24-month construction period.
Power supply agreements are in place and water negotiations are advancing.
Nedbank has begun engaging potential syndication partners for project debt, with leverage of 30–50% viewed as achievable.
Industry consultants observe a quieter U308 spot market
Turning to the latest update from industry consultants TradeTech, the weekly U308 spot price rose to US$89.50/lb, up US$1/lb, with three transactions reported in the spot market.
The weekly spot price is now up 9.1% year to date and 37.2% from a year ago.
With the Presidents’ Day holiday on Monday and the Lunar New Year holiday on February 17, the week began quietly, with no spot activity until Thursday.
One transaction for 300klbs was conducted for delivery at Honeywell’s ConverDyn facility in Illinois for late March or early April at US$89.75/lb.
A further 200klbs were transacted after the close on Thursday at US$89.50/lb for March delivery at ConverDyn.
On Friday, the market was focused on broader macro developments, including the US Supreme Court decision to strike down President Trump’s global tariffs.
At the end of the day, 200klbs were purchased again at US$89.50/lb for delivery at ConverDyn.
The TradeTech Mid-term price indicator stands at US$93/lb and the Long-term price indicator at US$90/lb.
Short interests for the week that was:
Boss Energy remains the number one most shorted stock on the ASX at 17.03%, down from 17.13%.
Paladin stands at number thirteen and its short position rose slightly to 9.68% from 9.43%. Silex Systems is at seventeenth position at 8.98%, down from 9.07% the prior week.
Lotus Resources’ short position fell by -1.74% points to 5.46%.
For more U308 reading at FNArena, see:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/10/uranium-week-volatility-kicks-up-a-gear/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/03/uranium-week-back-above-us100lb/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/01/27/uranium-week-no-shortage-of-bullish-sentiment/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/01/20/uranium-week-2026-off-to-the-races/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 20/02/2026 | 0.1000 | 0.00% | $0.16 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 20/02/2026 | 0.1500 |  7.14% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 20/02/2026 | 0.0500 | 2.00% | $0.06 | $0.02 | $0.070 | 40.0% | |
| AKN | 20/02/2026 | 0.0100 | 20.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 20/02/2026 | 0.0600 |  – 8.33% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 20/02/2026 | 0.5700 | 14.00% | $0.70 | $0.37 | |||
| BMN | 20/02/2026 | 4.3300 | 16.71% | $4.96 | $1.76 | $6.175 | 42.6% | |
| BOE | 20/02/2026 | 1.7200 | 5.21% | $4.75 | $1.07 | 10.8 | $1.814 | 5.5% |
| BSN | 20/02/2026 | 0.0300 | -27.50% | $0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 20/02/2026 | 0.0300 | 10.00% | $0.06 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 20/02/2026 | 0.2100 | 2.50% | $0.36 | $0.06 | $0.350 | 66.7% | |
| CXU | 20/02/2026 | 0.0300 | – 6.67% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 20/02/2026 | 0.2600 | 21.43% | $0.28 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 20/02/2026 | 2.6500 | 9.50% | $2.97 | $0.75 | -101.9 | $2.290 | -13.6% |
| EL8 | 20/02/2026 | 0.3700 | 5.71% | $0.50 | $0.19 | |||
| GUE | 20/02/2026 | 0.0700 | 1.43% | $0.09 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 20/02/2026 | 0.1400 | 3.85% | $0.25 | $0.04 | |||
| I88 | 20/02/2026 | 0.1400 | 0.00% | $0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 20/02/2026 | 0.0400 | 2.50% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 20/02/2026 | 0.8500 | – 0.59% | $0.93 | $0.56 | |||
| LOT | 20/02/2026 | 2.1100 | 7.11% | $3.20 | $1.56 | $3.533 | 67.5% | |
| MEU | 20/02/2026 | 0.1400 | – 3.57% | $0.19 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 20/02/2026 | 17.6400 | 9.91% | $20.47 | $6.44 | -168.4 | $21.100 | 19.6% |
| ORP | 20/02/2026 | 0.0700 | – 5.71% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 20/02/2026 | 13.9500 | 19.43% | $14.44 | $3.93 | 118.1 | $12.943 | – 7.2% |
| PEN | 20/02/2026 | 0.8000 | 15.22% | $1.08 | $0.28 | $1.930 | 141.3% | |
| SLX | 20/02/2026 | 7.0100 | 5.41% | $10.85 | $2.28 | -87.6 | $12.800 | 82.6% |
| TOE | 20/02/2026 | 0.5300 | 12.77% | $0.63 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 20/02/2026 | 0.0200 | -20.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SLX - SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED